-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
193
FXUS63 KDVN 102318
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
618 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...00z AVIATION UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Clear and cool tonight.

- Turning hot and humid by mid week.

- MRGL Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe storms Tuesday AND
  Wednesday (northwest).

- SLGT Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe storms Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Tonight: With high pressure settling across the forecast area,
combined with calm winds and a very dry airmass, ideal radiational
cooling is expected. Temperatures should drop quickly after
sunset to cool lows ranging from the mid 40s east to the lower
50s west.

Tuesday: Nice rebound in temperatures with plenty of sunshine to
start the day, especially with a southerly wind as high pressure
slips off to our east. Later in the morning and into the afternoon,
mid level warm advection clouds should increase from west to east.
Highs will be warmer with readings in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Any isolated storms in our nw counties should hold off until
towards evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Tuesday night through Thursday: Strong active zonal flow
develops across the northern United States, pulling warmer air
into the forecast area. Temperatures will be turning hot and
also it will become more humid as the week progresses. Readings
will be pushing to around 90 at most locations later in the
week, with dewpoints into the 60s.

Severe threat Tuesday evening and again Wednesday night: Severe
MCS`s are expected to propagate southeast out of MN and into
northeast IA and northern IL. SPC has a MRGL risk (Level 1 of 5)
for portions of our nw counties. Isolated large hail and damaging
winds are the main threats. The greater coverage of severe
storms look to remain across northern IA and central and
southern MN.

Severe threat Thursday: Global models indicate a cold front
arriving during the afternoon and evening. With hot, moist, and
very unstable airmass in place, organized thunderstorms should
erupt ahead of the front. SPC has a SLGT Risk (Level 2 of 5) for
severe storms across the entire forecast area. Mid level winds
increase to 50+ KT so deep layer shear will be at least moderate
if not strong. This suggests damaging winds will be the main
threat. The tornado risk is yet to be determined.

Friday through Saturday: Brief northwest flow should bring
somewhat cooler and less humid air into the area, along with dry
weather. Highs will be in the 80s.

Sunday and Monday: Another upper level trough swings out of the
Rockies and into the Upper Midwest. This will be the next
chance of thunderstorms. However, way too early to determine the
severe threat from these storms. Hot and humid conditions
return with some locations pushing into the lower to mid 90s
with heat index values soaring to 95 to 100.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 610 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Expect VFR conditions to prevail over the next 24 hours at all
terminals. Light & variable winds through tonight will increase
to around 10 kts out of the south Tuesday morning.

Late in the period, there is a low chance (10-20%) of a shower
or storm with a weak cold front. However, low confidence of
occurrence precludes mention in the current TAF.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Haase
LONG TERM...Haase
AVIATION...Speck