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FXUS63 KDVN 090702
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
202 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- Breezy pleasant weather is expected today.

- Below normal temperatures in place tonight through Monday night.

- Warm/Hot weather remains on track for Wednesday through the
Weekend.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

It seems like we`ve had plenty deep mixing days lately, and we`re
set up for another mostly sunny, breezy, how humidity day again
today.  After a lows in the lower to mid 50s today, a rapid rebound
to the lower 80s is expected in most areas, with humidity dropping
to 25-30% during the afternoon as winds blow 15 to 25 mph gusting to
35 mph from the northwest.   These are comfortable days for people,
but certainly are drying out our topsoil.

Tonight, with clear skies, we`ll quickly decouple winds and allow
for another chilly night with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. This
dry air is at least allowing for air conditioners to take nights
off.
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.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

The dry air regime (high pressure) will continue to stay in control
through Tuesday. Monday appears to be less mixed, and should have
highs in the 70s, while Tuesday will see increasing southwest
winds on the back side of the high pressure, and return to the
lower 80s again. In that transition out of the high pressure,
some models suggest a few high based showers by Tuesday
afternoon in warm advection aloft. We`re carrying very low pops
in our northwestern counties for that, but this probably is a
virga event or sprinkles.

With dry air still in place, but strong warm advection Wednesday, we
should see our first above normal day in the upcoming stretch. Highs
in the mid to upper 80s should be rather widespread with dry
conditions.

Wednesday night through Thursday night the building upper ridge is
expected to flatten, allowing for energy to ride over the Cornbelt,
with shower and thunderstorm chances increasing. While not certain
on these details yet, there will be increasing odds for MCS
activity in this summer pattern. Roughly 1/2 of the GEFs members
show significant rain chances here late week while the 00z EC
is quite bullish in showing a stationary front with waves of
thunder chances late week through the weekend. That said, the
heat we`re discussing at length the past few days, may be
limited by this precipitation in the end. Time will tell, and
after all these dry well mixed days, rainfall should be welcome
in most areas.
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.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

VFR conditions will continue through Sunday night, as dry air
spreads into the region on rather gusty northwest winds during
the daytime hours Sunday. High clouds or clear skies are
expected, with good visibility. Winds will increase from under
10 kts before 14z to 12-15 mid morning, and 15 to 25kts through
the early evening, before decreasing in the evening.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ervin
LONG TERM...Ervin
AVIATION...Ervin