-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
775
FXUS64 KEPZ 251012
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
412 AM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
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Issued at 1250 AM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024

We will see a hot day again this afternoon with high temperatures
running 5 to 10 degrees above average. We will see a slight chance
for thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly in area mountains. For
Wednesday and Thursday it will still be very warm with a good
chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms. For Friday and
into the weekend, we will have a continued chance for afternoon
and evening thunderstorms, with high temperatures running a few
degrees above average.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 1250 AM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Our hot weather will continue today, but it will not only be hot
this afternoon, night time temperatures, especially in urban areas
will not cool much. The low temperatures this week in El Paso may
stay at or above 80 degrees all the way through Sunday. Currently
an area of upper level high pressure aloft is controlling our
weather. This ridge aloft will help warm our high temperatures
today and Wednesday 5 to 10 degrees above average. Today and
Wednesday, we will see lowland high temperatures of 104 to 108.
While today`s precipitable water value (PW`s) is a little above
average, the strength of the ridge aloft will limit thunderstorm
activity to area mountains, and just a few storms in the lowlands.
But on Wednesday, several subtle factors change things. First an
upper level short wave trough will move across northern New
Mexico on the north side of the upper level ridge and that will
weaken the ridge a little. At the surface, an east push will
allow more moisture to move into the region as PW`s rise up from
today`s 1.0 values to values of 1.3 to 1.5 on Wednesday. The
increased moisture and weakened ridge aloft, will give us more
thunderstorms on Wednesday. Flash flooding, especially near and
downstream of recent burn scars will be of concern Wednesday
afternoon and evening.


For Thursday and Friday, the upper level ridge will drift a little
south and we will still have very high PW values of 1.3 to 1.5, so
we will continue to see a good chance for rain. Our high
temperatures both days, despite the rain chances will continue to
run a few degrees above average. For Saturday and Sunday, the
upper level ridge will recenter itself over the Arklatex and the
clockwise circulation around the ridge will allow more deep
moisture to move into the region, especially west of the Rio
Grande. PW values this weekend will continue to run in the 1.3 to
1.5 range. High temperatures on Saturday and Sunday, though not as
hot as the next couple of days, will still be running a few
degrees above average. For the start of next week, not much will
change with high temperatures running a few degrees above average
and daily isolated to scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms. Welcome to the monsoon season.
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&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1136 PM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Lingering outflow boundaries across the area will keep winds gusty
(10-15 knots). Otherwise SCT/BKN100-150 with FEW/SCT200-250 exist
across the area. Clouds will slowly decrease and dissipate through
the nighttime hours, becoming FEW to SCT around sunrise. Winds will
be light and VRB through the morning and early afternoon hours. TSRA
chances will increase through the afternoon hours, especially for
KTCS with PROB30 in TAF from 20-24Z. KELP/KLRU/KDMN could see an
isolated TS/SH in the vicinity, confidence too low right now so no
mention in TAF.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
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Issued at 1250 AM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Fire weather concerns today will be the heat in the lowlands and
thunderstorm chances in area mountains. High temperatures today
and Wednesday will run 5 to 10 degrees above average. We will see
a slight chance for thunderstorms today, but a good chance for
thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday. We will continue to be
very warm with isolated to scattered thunderstorms for Friday and
into the weekend. Min RH will range from 15 to 25% in the lowlands
to 30 to 40% in area mountains today through Sunday. Though winds
will not be much of a factor over the next seven days, any
thunderstorms that develop will have the capability of producing
strong and gusty outflow winds. Ventilation rates will range from
good to very good over the next several days.
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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El Paso                 107  84 106  80 /  10  40  70  80
Sierra Blanca            99  75  98  71 /  20  50  60  60
Las Cruces              105  78 104  75 /  20  30  70  80
Alamogordo              102  74 101  70 /  20  30  60  60
Cloudcroft               79  58  78  56 /  50  30  70  60
Truth or Consequences    99  77 100  75 /  30  20  70  70
Silver City              94  69  94  67 /  60  50  90  70
Deming                  104  75 103  74 /  30  40  80  80
Lordsburg               100  74 100  72 /  40  30  70  60
West El Paso Metro      104  81 104  78 /  10  40  70  80
Dell City               104  75 103  74 /  20  30  50  40
Fort Hancock            106  77 106  74 /  20  50  70  60
Loma Linda               97  74  97  71 /  20  40  70  70
Fabens                  106  79 106  76 /  20  40  70  70
Santa Teresa            103  76 103  74 /  10  40  70  80
White Sands HQ          102  82 103  79 /  20  40  70  80
Jornada Range           103  74 103  71 /  20  30  70  70
Hatch                   104  74 104  73 /  30  40  70  70
Columbus                103  80 104  76 /  30  40  70  80
Orogrande               102  76 101  73 /  20  30  60  70
Mayhill                  88  62  89  61 /  60  30  80  60
Mescalero                89  62  89  59 /  40  20  70  60
Timberon                 88  61  88  58 /  40  30  70  60
Winston                  90  63  91  62 /  70  30  90  70
Hillsboro                97  74  97  71 /  50  30  90  70
Spaceport               101  71 101  69 /  30  30  60  70
Lake Roberts             92  64  93  63 /  70  40  90  60
Hurley                   97  68  96  66 /  40  40  80  70
Cliff                   102  66 102  66 /  60  40  80  50
Mule Creek               95  70  96  69 /  50  30  70  50
Faywood                  97  71  96  69 /  40  40  80  70
Animas                   99  74 100  71 /  40  40  70  70
Hachita                 100  75 101  71 /  30  40  70  80
Antelope Wells           99  73  99  70 /  50  50  80  90
Cloverdale               93  68  94  68 /  60  60  80  70
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&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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TX...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Thursday for TXZ418-419-423-424.

NM...Heat Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 AM MDT Thursday for
     NMZ410-411.
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&&

$$

FORECASTER...15-Brice