Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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016 FXUS64 KFWD 250820 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 320 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 ...New Long Term... .SHORT TERM...
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/Issued 1255 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024/ /Through Wednesday/ Hot weather will continue through mid week, though an increase in humidity will drive heat index values up a few degrees compared to the last several days. Following a warm and muggy morning, temperatures will peak in the mid to upper 90s this afternoon with only a handful of locations reaching 100 degrees. However, thanks to the increase in low level moisture, nearly all locations will see heat index values in the triple digits between 101-110 degrees. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for all of North and Central Texas through this evening. After a rain-free spell, low rain chances will return to North Texas this evening as a cluster of storms in Oklahoma approaches the area. These storms should be on a weakening trend as they near the Red River, so the severe threat will be low. However, some storms could be strong with small hail and gusty winds. The heat will continue Wednesday, with 100-degree temperatures becoming slightly more widespread, especially across North Texas. We will meet Heat Advisory criteria again on Wednesday, but this could be impacted by the Tuesday night convection. Additionally, isolated showers/storms may develop near any lingering outflow boundaries Wednesday afternoon. With these uncertainties in mind, we`ll hold off on extending the current Heat Advisory for now, though it will likely need to be extended through Wednesday for at least portions of the area sometime later today. Barnes
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&& .LONG TERM...
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/NEW/ /Wednesday Night through Monday/ In a nutshell, it will remain hot and humid from mid-week through early next week. If isolated storms do manage to develop Wednesday afternoon near any outflow boundaries, they should dissipate quickly Wednesday night with the loss of surface heating. The mid-level ridge axis will shift eastward at the end of the week, remaining centered around the ArkLaTex region through early next week. Subsidence under the ridge will yield plenty of sun and eliminate any appreciable chances for precipitation. Temperatures Thursday through Monday will not vary much day to day with highs mainly in the upper 90s to around 100 and lows from the mid 70s to around 80. Southerly low level flow will also supply a constant feed of Gulf moisture, keeping humidity and afternoon heat index values high. The current Heat Advisory will more than likely continue for most if not all of the forecast area this weekend through early next week. The good news is that it looks like we will stay below Excessive Heat Warning criteria. 79
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&& .AVIATION...
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/Issued 1255 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024/ /06Z TAFs/ VFR and south winds near 8 to 12 knots will continue for most of the period. Patchy MVFR stratus is expected at KACT early Tuesday morning but still looks to remain south of the D10 terminals at this time. A cluster of storms will approach the Red River Tuesday evening and may impact portions of North Texas through the overnight hours. This activity is expected to be on a weakening trend, so we`ll hold off on including any mention in the TAFs for now. Barnes
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Dallas-Ft. Worth 97 80 99 80 100 / 5 20 10 5 0 Waco 96 81 98 79 99 / 0 5 5 5 0 Paris 96 77 97 75 96 / 5 20 20 20 0 Denton 98 79 101 77 100 / 5 20 10 5 0 McKinney 97 79 99 77 99 / 5 20 10 10 0 Dallas 98 81 100 80 101 / 5 20 10 5 0 Terrell 95 79 97 77 97 / 5 20 10 10 0 Corsicana 97 79 97 79 99 / 0 5 5 10 0 Temple 97 78 98 77 99 / 0 5 5 0 0 Mineral Wells 98 77 101 77 101 / 0 20 5 5 0
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&& .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091-100>102-115>117-129>132-141>144-156-157. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ092>095-103>107- 118>123-133>135-145>148-158>162-174-175.
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&& $$