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567
FXUS62 KGSP 111748
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
148 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Dry conditions will continue through the week under weak high
pressure. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected early next week as a weak cold front approaches from the
north.  The hottest days are expected to be Friday and Saturday,
then the heat should continue into next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 130 PM Tuesday: A trough situated north of the CWA shifts
eastward as a weakening ridge axis moves toward the Midwest. The
subtropical jet continues to settle northward, setting the stage for
a typical summerlike pattern. Flow aloft starts to become more broad
and W/NW by the end of the period. Sfc high pressure continues to
build into the southeast and increased height rises contribute to a
warming pattern into the extended period. As the sfc pressure
amplifies eastward, sfc winds will toggle E/SE with a short lived
moisture fetch from the Atlantic Ocean, at least through the near
term. No precipitation is expected during this time, given the
strong subsidence and stout inversion layer aloft shunting rising
parcels from the BL. Quiet forecast overall. Temperatures overnight
will be closer to climo and highs on Wednesday start to rebound with
temps in the upper 80s east of the mountains.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 130 pm EDT Tuesday: Upper heights will slowly rise through the
short range period. A seasonally dry air mass will remain in place
across the area keeping skies mostly sunny/clear and limiting any
convection to isolated ridgetop showers during peak heating. Thus,
we expect high temperatures to get higher each day. Expect highs in
the Piedmont to be near 90 on Thursday and in the lower to middle
90s on Friday. Mountain valley highs will be in the mid 80s Thursday
and near 90 on Friday. Friday`s readings will be nearly 10 degrees
above climo.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 140 pm EDT Tuesday: Upper heights will continue to rise
through the weekend into early next week. However, surface high
pressure will push into the northeastern states bringing an easterly
component to the low level flow in this area. This will act to bring
some moisture back into the area and cool temperatures down some.
Readings will likely still be above climo, especially this weekend
but not as hot as Friday. With the moisture returning, we will see a
return to more typical mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms
Sunday into next Tuesday.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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At KCLT and elsewhere: Another TAF period with VFR conditions
prevailing at all terminals. High pressure builds into the southeast
today and into Wednesday, leaving mostly clear skies and quiet
weather. This afternoon, most sites will have SCT cigs for fair
weather cu popping up east of the mountains. KCLT could see cigs
drop into the 070-090 range through 00z, but will remain VFR. No
vsby issues anticipated. Winds are expected to remain somewhat
tricky, despite being light. This afternoon, wind directions will
toggle N/NE and at times E. VRB could also occur especially at KHKY
and KAVL. By Wednesday morning, winds across the entire area will
turn S/SE as the area of broad high pressure extends eastward.
Again, low-end gusts are not expected as wind speeds should be 5-
10kts at all terminals.

Outlook: Sfc high pressure remains over the area through at least
mid-week with minimal chance for convection and associated flight
restrictions.
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&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...SCW
LONG TERM...SCW
AVIATION...CP