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175
FXUS64 KHUN 111500
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Patchy fog and lingering showers that were occurring this morning
has since dissipated and cloud cover has begun to scatter out this
morning. In its wake, partly sunny skies will dominate the area
through the day. Accompanying the sunshine, diurnal heating will
allow another afternoon of thunderstorm development throughout
the area- bringing threats of gusty winds (up to 40-50 mph),
heavy rainfall, and lightning in any stronger storms that develop.
Heavy rainfall/flooding will be the primary threat as PWATs
continue to be in the 1.7-1.8" range, which is near the 90th
percentile per OHX sounding climatology. In addition to this,
storms will be very slow moving today (almost stationary) with the
potential for backbuilding. Therefore, while coverage may be
limited, those who do see rainfall today will likely see at least
0.5-1.0" fall in a short time period and will be able to observe
ponding of water on roadways as well as in low lying areas. The
Weather Prediction Center has placed the entire Tennessee Valley
in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for flash flooding, meaning
there is at least a 5% risk of rainfall exceeding flash flood
guidance.

Otherwise, another summer day with high temperatures in the upper
80s to lower 90s and heat indices reaching the upper 90s to 100
degrees in localized areas (mostly NW AL). Tonight, temperatures
are forecast to drop into the upper 60s to lower 70s with patchy
fog possible as skies clear out and winds become light/variable.
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&&

.SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Saturday through Monday)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Heat gradually increases through the weekend as high temperatures
reach the mid 90s by Sunday with heat indices in the 98-105 range.
Heat products may be considered in future updates, however, the
105 degree areas continue to look localized/not widespread enough
for consideration of any products at this time. Despite this, we
continue to urge everyone to remain hydrated and use sun
protection if spending any time outdoors.

Daily, medium thunderstorm chances (40-60%) continue through the
short term period as a series of upper level shortwaves continues
to move eastward through the area. During each afternoon, during
peak heating, coverage of showers/storms will increase and some
stronger storms may be capable of producing gusty winds (up to
40-50 mph) in addition to heavy rainfall and lightning. Lack of
shear through the weekend will likely dissuade severe development.
However, there is a low chance of a stronger thunderstorm over
performing- leading to severe formation with the threat of
damaging winds. Heavy rainfall will continue to be our primary
concern (in addition to heat) as PWAT values reach 1.8-2.0"
Saturday and Sunday, which near or above the 90th percentile
sounding climatology per OHX. Storm motion will continue to be
relatively slow (not near stationary) with the potential for
backbuilding. While we are not currently outlooked for any
excessive rainfall from WPC, a low risk of flash flooding remains
through Sunday. On Monday, a cold front (stemming from a far
northeastern sfc low) is forecast to approach from the northwest.
However, models are showing it weakening before reaching our area.
Have continued with blended guidance for now and kept in low to
medium PoPs, primarily in the afternoon hours.
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&&

.LONG TERM...
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(Monday night through Thursday)
Issued at 936 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Bottom line up front: Despite the chance for showers and
thunderstorms each day, as heat increases, it will push the TN
Valley near Heat Advisory criteria next week.

High pressure over FL retrogrades early next week and builds
across the Southeast. This won`t bring an abundance of sunshine,
this dirty ridge will still have enough moisture, and pull in
additional moisture to keep shower/storm chances in through mid
week. With no major focused forcing, shower/storm chances will
remain low to medium 20-50% and no severe weather is expected. The
greatest coverage is expected Monday afternoon as a front weakens
as it sinks south towards the TN Valley. Dewpoints will stay in
the low/mid 70s and with temperatures near normal in the lower
90s, heat index values will encroach Heat Advisory criteria of 105
degrees each afternoon. Will be monitoring trends to see if a
Heat Advisory will be needed, however regardless if we have an
advisory or not, heat safety will remain important. Never leave a
person or pet in a vehicle and stay hydrated.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Both fog and thunderstorms did manage to form before 12Z TAF
issuance. Fog was mainly in the sheltered valleys of NE AL.
Short-lived convection moving across NW AL became more organized
as it tracked from the Bankhead Natl Forest to south of KHSV in
the last 1-2 hours. Other TCU was noted at daybreak to our west.
The afternoon will be a better time for scattered to numerous
showers/storms to form, with more of the short-term guidance
showing this possibility. The stronger storms produce wind gusts
over 40kt, along with torrential rains and frequent lightning.
Shower activity should wind down in the late evening. Depending
upon where and how much rainfall occurs, patchy late night fog
could become an issue late in the TAF. Confidence at this time is
too low to include it in the 12Z TAF.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...RSB