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078
FXUS62 KILM 280805
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
405 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Hot and humid conditions will continue through the weekend. A
stationary front across the area will return north late on Friday.
Another cold front will bring scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms from late Sunday into Monday. Relatively cooler
and drier conditions behind the front on Tuesday will see a
warming and moistening trend through the midweek period.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A cold front has stalled over the area early this morning and will
be the focus for patchy fog in between gaps in mid level cloud
cover. Light winds will become easterly later this morning as high
pressure settles off the coast of Long Island this afternoon.
Easterly flow will push the stalled front westward, across the
central Carolinas, as a warm front this afternoon.

Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms are possible this
afternoon. Water vapor imagery indicates dry air aloft is filtering
southward behind the upper trough. This dry air will limit overall
coverage and subsidence behind the exiting shortwave. Lifted indices
are near zero today as a result. Poor mid level lapse rates and
shallow instability should keep most of the area dry. The current
forecast is below the collective guidance mean in regards to PoP for
this afternoon. Enhanced convergence near the coast could produce an
early shower near the coast.

Onshore flow will keep dew points in the low 70s today, recovering
into the mid 70s overnight. Lows tonight in the low to mid 70s.
Boundary layer winds will be light tonight and patchy fog is
possible, but onshore flow could favor low clouds near the
coast.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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Mid-level ridging will be firmly in place on Saturday with mid-
level subsidence and dry air in place. However, a moist low-
level atmosphere warrants chance PoPs for afternoon shower and
thunderstorm development along the usual forcing mechanisms -
the Piedmont trough and sea breeze. Highs should reach the low-
mid 90s outside of where convection provides localized relief,
and the possibility remains for Heat Advisory criteria (heat
indices >= 105F for at least 2 hrs) to be met. Any convection
should quickly collapse during the evening with nocturnal
cooling eating away at instability from the day`s heating. A dry
night should ensue with lows in the mid-upper 70s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A sharpening mid-level shortwave will begin diving southeastward
through the Great Lakes on Sunday with its axis passing overhead
late on Monday. A surface cold front associated with this
shortwave will drop southeastward, bringing enhanced rain
chances from late Sunday through Monday. Moisture pooling ahead
of the front still looks to bring PWATs around 2 sigma above
normal with values around or even above 2.25" on Sunday
afternoon. This brings both an excessive heat threat, with a Heat
Advisory possible, and a heavy rainfall threat with any
thunderstorms which develop during the afternoon when
instability is maximized. With mid-level subsidence and modest
dry air dissipating as the shortwave approaches, at least
scattered to perhaps numerous showers and thunderstorms should
develop during the late afternoon and evening. Showers and
storms should continue well into the night as the front nears,
but the reduction in instability due to earlier development
should keep overall intensity in check. Nevertheless, given the
expectation of above-normal moisture, heavy rainfall capable of
producing localized flash flooding will remain a threat. Highs
in the low-mid 90s with dewpoints holding in the mid-upper 70s
will make for an abnormally hot and humid day with overnight
lows in the low-mid 70s.

On Monday, the cold front gradually crosses the area with
daytime heating likely yielding another round of heavy showers
and thunderstorms along and south of it. The mid-level shortwave
pivoting through will eventually drive this front to our south
during the night with convection pushing away with it. We will
finally see dewpoints fall as this occurs, with them finally
dropping below 70F for the first time in awhile across most of
the forecast area. Daytime highs will depend on the extent of
cloud cover and showers during the morning, and with very moist
conditions in place, it will not take much heating to cause
additional convection south of the front; mid-upper 80s are
presently forecast with nighttime lows dipping into the mid-
upper 60s away from the immediate coast.

From Tuesday onward, the mid-level shortwave trough exits to our
east followed by ridging coming back with a vengeance for the
midweek period. As surface high pressure passes by to the north
on Tuesday and settles into the Southeast for Wednesday and
Thursday, a warming and moistening trend will commence. Mainly
slight chance PoPs remain in place for typical isolated pop-up
showers along the sea breeze during this period.
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&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Cold front stalled across the area will be the focus for fog
overnight. Although, upper level clouds continue to develop near
the front and may delay the onset of fog development. VFR until
patchy fog early this morning, likely approaching minimums at
LBT and FLO.

VFR in easterly flow this morning with a gradual wind shift to
SE during the day. Widely scattered convection possible this
afternoon despite competition from dry air aloft. VFR for most
of the period.

Extended Outlook...VFR should prevail outside of periodic
MVFR/IFR during diurnal showers/thunderstorms plus spotty
morning low clouds/fog.

&&

.MARINE...
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Through Tonight... Light and variable winds near a stalled
frontal boundary this morning will gradually shift to easterly
as high pressure settles off the Long Island coast this
afternoon. As the front retreats inland this afternoon, winds
become E and SE, increasing to 10-15 knots along the coast. Seas
around 2 feet this morning increase to 2-3 feet this afternoon
as winds gradually increase. Light onshore winds continue
overnight with a chance for showers and an isolated
thunderstorm.

Saturday through Tuesday...
Southerly flow around Bermuda high pressure will remain in place
through Sunday night ahead of a cold front with speeds generally
around 10-15 kts. Winds veer to westerly as the front nears on
Monday and eventually swing to northeasterly behind it by late
Monday as high pressure to our north briefly takes control. This
front will bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
from Sunday night through Monday. Waves generally hold in the
2-3 ft range due to a SErly 8 sec swell and southerly wind
waves. This changes behind the front with the southerly wind
waves diminishing and NErly wind waves taking over.
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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
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Increased fire concerns are present across most of the area due to
low fuel moistures and current drought conditions. There are a
couple of chances of rainfall over the next week, with potentially
moderate rain late Sunday through Monday night, but is not expected
to be enough to alleviate dry conditions. While the forecast, namely
RH, remains above criteria for any NWS products, extra caution
should be used, especially with the upcoming holiday.
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&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...ABW
LONG TERM...ABW
AVIATION...21
MARINE...21/ABW
FIRE WEATHER...ILM