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722
FXUS62 KILM 182328
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
728 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonably warm conditions will continue for the next few days
as high pressure sits well offshore. A warming trend begins late
in the week with afternoon showers and thunderstorms for the
weekend. Heat indices may reach the triple digits over the
weekend. Onshore flow will bring more humid conditions by the
beginning of next week with a better chance of afternoon showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A strong ridge overhead and elongated high pressure offshore
continues to bring onshore flow. Inversion aloft will keep the
area dry overnight and into Wednesday. Convergence along the
coast and easterly moisture advection may bring a stray shower
tomorrow afternoon. Overnight lows in the mid and upper 60s,
Wednesday`s highs in the upper 80s to around 90 inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A ridge over the mid-Atlantic gets nudged southward into the
Mid South this period. Meanwhile, offshore surface high pressure
well to the northeast drops a bit more towards the mid-
Atlantic. Quiet and dry forecast this period with a gentle east-
southeast wind. Highs Thursday in the lower 90s inland, mid 80s
at the coast. Lows each night in the mid 60s inland, lower 70s
at the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upper ridge gets pushed pushed further south still, aided by a
series of shortwaves that exit out of the Rockies and push
eastward towards the Ohio River Valley over the weekend.
Meanwhile, low pressure makes its way towards the GA/SC coast
Friday. Most of the moisture and energy associated with it
remains well to the south of the area, and subsidence from the
ridge will keep the forecast mostly dry Friday and Saturday.
Exceptions are for the southern portions of the Grand Strand
area, where some of that moisture may sneak up and bring a stray
shower or thunderstorm to the area from offshore.

Rain chances increase steadily Sunday through Tuesday, as
subsidence from the ridge decreases. Diurnal convection becomes
the theme initially, with an approaching cold front bringing
better shower and thunderstorm chances by early next week.

Perhaps the biggest story in the long term period is the heat.
Afternoon heat indices climb up into the triple digits by
Saturday, lasting through the end of the period. Inland areas
may hit heat indices between 100-105 degrees. With it being the
weekend, increased outdoor activity would be expected, so it`s
important to take frequent breaks, wear loose fitting, light-
colored clothing, and drink plenty of water. For more heat
safety tips, head over to weather.gov/safety/heat. Be safe out
there!

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR through the 00Z TAF period. Easterly flow continues with
sfc high pressure locked in place off to the NE. Small chance
that the onshore flow brings brief MVFR clouds along the coast,
but chances are too low to warrant mention in the TAFs. Gusts
up to 20-25 kt Wednesday aftn.

Extended Outlook... VFR continues.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Through Wednesday...Elongated high pressure continues to produce
persistent onshore flow and easterly swell. Swell has built to
3-4 feet at 7 seconds and will continue to build on Wednesday.
SCA conditions may develop on Wednesday as wind waves and swell
combine to frequent 6 foot seas.

Wednesday Night through Saturday...Small Craft Advisory conditions
possible through Thursday evening. Easterly winds at 10-15kts. From
there, seas rapidly drop from 3-4ft on Friday to 2-3ft on Saturday.
Easterly winds at 10kts become more southeasterly Friday night
through Saturday. Easterly swell clocks in at 8-9 seconds.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Other - Rip Currents: A building easterly swell will maintain
an elevated rip current risk for east and southeast facing
beaches in our area through (at least) the end of the week. A
high risk of rip currents is forecasted for Pender, New Hanover
and Georgetown county beaches Wednesday through Friday, with
moderate rip risk for Horry County. The south facing beaches of
Brunswick county (east of Ocean Isle) will likely have strong
east to west longshore currents these days due to easterly swell
and winds versus strong rip currents.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ110.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...IGB
LONG TERM...IGB
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...IGB/21
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...