-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
095
FXUS62 KILM 201017
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
617 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonably warm and mainly dry conditions will continue into
tonight. Onshore movement of showers and possibly a
thunderstorm late tonight into Friday as a result of low
pressure tracking across the Atlantic, that eventually moves
onshore well south of the area. Warming trend begins Saturday,
with an extended period of heat, humidity, and diurnal
convection forecasted through middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today will be a persistence day with highs generally a repeat
of Wed as high pressure aloft keeps enough subsidence across the
FA keeping a lid on any widespread convection. Still may
observe isolated showers move onshore, now thru late this
morning before dissipating the further they move inland.
However, will observe additional stratocu/cu clouds moving
onshore, especially later tonight or during the overnight
period. This a result of the tropical wave/Low pressure tracking
W to WNW across the Southeast U.S. Atlantic waters, that will
reach the offshore and possibly the coastal waters off FL/GA by
Fri daytime morning. Pops will be included for the late
overnight period as the pcpn activity pinwheels counterclockwise
ahead of the low, reaching the ILM SC Coast and partially
inland late in the pre-dawn Fri hrs. Highs today low to mid 80s
at the coast to the upper 80s to lower 90s inland, following
close to the NBM numbers given its decent max temp performance
of late. Tonights lows, widespread 60s to around 70 at the
immediate coast given onshore flow across SSTs in the 70s to
around 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Low level trough will be inland near coastal GA early Friday.
Moisture extending north from the trough will move into our
coastal areas during the day. Subsidence from mid-upper ridge
centered to the west and north will limit inland (and northern)
extent of any convection Friday midday and afternoon. Have
increased pops slightly, with 30-40% chance across coastal NE SC
and generally below 20% north of US-76. Friday might be our
last day with near normal temperatures for a while as a
prolonged warming trend begins Saturday with WAA around Bermuda
high. Subsidence weakens a bit Saturday, with best chance for
afternoon convection across southwestern counties of the CWA.
High temps climb into the mid 90s away from the coast Saturday
with low temps in the low 70s Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Extended period of heat, humidity, and diurnal convection
forecasted beginning Sunday. Piedmont trough present Sunday and
Monday with a weakening front approaching Tuesday. High
temperatures in the mid to upper 90s inland forecasted for each
day (Sunday - Wednesday), with near 90F along the coast, will
combine with elevated dewpoints to bring potential heat advisory
conditions particularly Sunday and Monday. Low temps each night
in the low to mid 70s. Highest pops are currently during the
day Monday (~50%) as an upper trough may help initiate
convection (along with aforementioned Piedmont trough and sea
breeze), though strength and timing of trough is uncertain. Some
dry air aloft will lessen storm coverage Tuesday and Wednesday
to perhaps widely scattered.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR throughout the 24 hr 12Z TAF Issuance period. Except for
possible MVFR ceilings and VCSH from onshore movement of low
clouds during the pre-dawn Fri hrs as the tropical wave/low
approaches the GA/FL Coasts. Will periodically observe FEW/SCT
3k to 4k foot stratocu moving onshore thru the day that quickly
dissipates inland thru sunrise Thu. There-after the days heating
may aid in further Cu development to Moderate Cu, but will be
limited in the vertical due to subsidence aloft. But enough
development may be enough for a few light showers to occur, too
isolated tho to place in the coastal terminals. Inland will see
a cu field develop that will be shunted in vertical development.
ENE-E flow to continue during this period with gusts approaching
20 kt Thu aftn especially across the coastal terminals. Winds
will slightly veer to the ESE due to the resultant bndry later
in the day.

Extended Outlook...VFR to prevail outside of the periodic
MVFR/IFR diurnally induced showers/storms and morning low ,
during the daytime morning hrs. clouds/fog (especially
starting Sat).
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...SCA raised for all waters for seas
periodically eclipsing 6 ft thru tonight. Overall seas 4 to 6 ft
thru the period and dominated by E to ESE wave t 7 to 8 second
periods. Sfc pg to slightly further tighten from south to
north, between high pressure to the north and the sfc low
heading toward the GA/FL Coasts. Looking at ENE-E winds around
15G20kt ILM NC waters and 15-20kt with possible G25kt ILM SC
Waters.

Friday through Monday...A surface trough moving inland across
GA on Friday will maintain easterly flow during the day, with
seas 4-5 ft slowly weakening during the day as prolonged ESE
swell begins to lessen. A prolonged period of south-southwest
winds over the coastal waters begins on Saturday and continues
into next week around Bermuda high pressure, with brief increase
in speeds to 15-20 kts on Monday. Seas 2-3 ft during the
weekend increase to 3-4 ft Monday, as building S wind wave joins
the weakening ESE swell. Moisture extending from the trough to
the south Friday will bring scattered thunderstorms to the
waters during the day. Overnight becomes the primary window for
convection of the waters Friday night into next week, with a
chance for daytime storms Monday with westerly storm motions and
upper level support.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Other - Rip Currents: A building ESE swell and upcoming full
moon will maintain an elevated rip current risk for east and
southeast facing beaches in our area through (at least) Friday.
A high risk of rip currents is in effect today for Pender, New
Hanover, Horry, and Georgetown County beaches, as well as Ocean
Isle Beach west in Brunswick, with high rip risk potentially
continuing through Friday. The south facing beaches of Brunswick
county (east of Ocean Isle) will likely have strong east to
west longshore currents today, with a moderate risk of rip
currents due to strength of the swell - although longshore
current is expected to make rip current formation difficult.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NCZ106-108.
     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ110.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for SCZ054-056.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for AMZ250-252-254-
     256.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VAO
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/VAO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...VAO