-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
396
FXUS62 KILM 210703
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
303 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Dry forecast in store for the weekend, with high pressure
dominating. Temperatures linger near or just above seasonal
norms through early next week. Next appreciable rain chances
look to return by the middle of next week with the next frontal
system.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Will be under the influence of ridging aloft, with the ridge
axis aloft sliding eastward and reaching the Great Lakes to the
Fl Panhandle by daybreak Sun. At the sfc, weak high pressure to
extend down the east coast this period. After patchy morning
fog, looking at generally sunny to Mostly sunny day with enough
low level moisture and the days heating to ignite FEW/SCT Cu
across the area. Later tonight, a mid-level impulse having rode
over the upper ridge axis, will dive across the NE and Mid-
Atlantic States. Associated moisture in the form of clouds could
reach the northern fringes of the ILM CWA tonight. POPS should
remain north of the FA. Solid mid 80s for max temps today
followed by mid to upper 60s for lows tonight.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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Ridging over Mexico and the Texas Gulf coast looks to flatten out a
bit this period, but still extends eastward into the Carolinas.
Meanwhile, surface high pressure sticks around, allowing for a
mostly dry forecast this period. Only possible exception is Sunday
afternoon and evening, as the Carolinas are caught in between two
shortwaves. One pushes due eastward through the Ohio River Valley,
while another in the DelMarVa region pushes to the south and east
offshore. There could be just enough forcing and moisture
convergence to squeeze out a shower or two in southeast NC,
particularly north of Cape Fear. Even so, this activity doesn`t look
like much, and a dry regime should ultimately be the trend.

Another story to this forecast is some elevated heat, which has
started to stand out a bit within the last couple of forecast
cycles. Subsidence doesn`t look particularly strong, but the
westerly flow underneath 700 mb in the ridging pattern is boosting
highs in the upper 80s in the Pee Dee and Grand Strand regions for
Sunday. Even 90 degrees is not out of the question, which would be
just frighteningly ironic for the Autumnal Equinox. Some extra cloud
cover keeps highs in the mid 80s in southeast NC. Highs Monday look
about 2 degrees cooler. Lows each night in the mid-to-upper 60s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Tuesday still looks dry, though dewpoints soar into the 70s
(disgusting). From there, long term forecast still looks messy,
perhaps even messier than it did 24 hours ago. Upper air patterns
show an upper low coming out of either the Plains or the Great Lakes
region (like that narrows it down...) and pushing a cold front
through the area by Thursday and Friday. Essentially, expect rain
chances to pick up ahead of this system. Highs in the mid 80s remain
through Thursday, and may actually try to hit the upper 80s again on
Wednesday. Lows in the mid 60s.

Meanwhile, confidence is increasing on some tropical mischief
forming in the northwestern Caribbean Sea some time next week. Even
so, forecast guidance is still mucky, and there`s not much to say at
this point. NHC calls for a 60% chance of formation within the next
week.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR to dominate this 06Z TAF Issuance period, except for a
small window early this morning that could yield MVFR and
possibly IFR fog conditions, mainly across the inland
terminals. At the coastal terminals, a periodic 2k or less foot
sct/bkn deck may occur. Otherwise, upper ridge axis to remain
west of the area this period. Weak sfc ridge axis to extend
down the east coast this period. Sfc pg rather on the relaxed
side, with light NE winds dominating except for weak resultant
wind, ie. sea breeze, this aftn/evening.

Extended Outlook...Dry through at least Tuesday with VFR
conditions, but early morning MVFR/IFR from fog/stratus
remains possible.

&&

.MARINE...
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Through Tonight...Weak sfc ridging down the U.S. East Coast to
prevail this period. Sfc pg to remain somewhat relaxed. Winds
generally N-NE 10 to occasionally 15 kt today, veering easterly
late today thru tonight. The low churning and burning well
offshore from the Mid-Atlantic States, will send a 9+ second
period ENE swell and when combined with locally produced wind
waves, looking at 2 to 4 ft seas thru the period, except 1 to 3
south of Cape Fear NC.

Sunday through Wednesday...Variable winds Sunday then become
onshore (generally easterly or southeasterly) Monday through
Wednesday, clocking in at 5-10 kts. Seas 2-3 ft. Outside of wind
waves, a noticeable easterly swell comes in at 10-11 seconds.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Coastal flooding remains a threat through the weekend into
early next week with high astronomical tides and a modest
northeast flow. The beaches seem secure for minor coastal
flooding requiring an advisory. However, criteria along the
Lower Cape Fear River from Wilmington south may reach Moderate
Coastal flood thresholds requiring a Coastal Flood Warning.
Upstream waters working their way down the Cape Fear River will
also influence the flooding on both sides of the Cape Fear River
including Brunswick County.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for
     NCZ106-108-110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EDT early this morning for
     NCZ107-109.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM EDT this
     afternoon for NCZ107-109.
SC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for
     SCZ054-056.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IGB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...IGB
LONG TERM...IGB
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/IGB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DCH