-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
959
FXUS61 KILN 230209
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1009 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Several upper level disturbances moving through the Ohio Valley
will bring occasional chances for showers and a few
thunderstorms tonight through Tuesday. Warm conditions are
expected through Tuesday before more seasonable temperatures
return to the region by midweek. There is the potential for
additional rainfall toward the end of the workweek into next
weekend, but the details of the pattern at these extended ranges
are still somewhat uncertain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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Line of showers in the northwest part of the forecast area are
forecast to weaken as they continue east through the night.
Cannot rule out isolated thunder but instability has really
dropped off. Forecast lows still look reasonable.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A weak frontal boundary will drift to the S across the ILN FA
during the predawn hours, lining up to near the I-71 corridor by
daybreak. The front`s southward progression will slow into the
afternoon before eventually stalling across KY/TN. The front
itself, along with renewed mid/upper level forcing, will
provide a focus for renewed convection during the day Monday
across parts of KY, but certainly there is enough uncertainty
in the exact placement of the E-W oriented boundary that some
SCT SHRA will continue to be possible near/S of the OH Rvr
through the afternoon, with ISO activity possible N of the OH
Rvr and N of the diffuse baroclinic zone. This will especially
be the case during the afternoon hours. It shouldn`t be a
washout for any one location, but it may not be completely dry,
either. This being said, locales near/S of the OH Rvr will have
the most favorable setup for soaking rain with one or more clusters
of storms Monday afternoon.

A more potent S/W and attendant surface system will approach
from the SW overnight Monday into early Tuesday morning,
bringing renewed/more widespread chances for SHRA/TSRA into the
Tri-State and wrn parts of the local area by daybreak Tuesday.
Still some uncertainty in just how far N the warm front advances
into the day Tuesday, with the warm sector favored to get to at
least near the OH Rvr.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Breezy and wet conditions are expected to start out the long term
period for the day on Tuesday.  That system will begin to then push
to the east with a decrease in precipitation chances Tuesday night
into Wednesday.

Beyond Wednesday, for Thursday through Saturday, there continues to
be a lot of run to run consistency issues and model variability and
therefore confidence is lower during that time.  By Sunday however,
models come back into better agreement and focus precipitation
chances more across southwestern portions of the region near the tri-
state.

Temperatures will be cooler in the long term than we have been
seeing with high temperatures in the 70s Tuesday and Wednesday.
Thursday through Sunday will have high temperatures in the 70s to
lower 80s.  Low temperatures during the long term will generally be
in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A band of showers will track across the region overnight,
although weakening as they do. This precipitation will moisten
lower layers enough to cause ceiling to fall to MVFR. A cold
front will pass a bit later in the night. While winds will shift
to more westerly, speeds will not be particularly strong. But
low ceilings will occur in the wake of the front, either ending
up at IFR or MVFR below 2kft. These ceilings will then be
persistent until towards 18Z when then will lift and at least
develop breaks. Expect to return to VFR area wide before the end
of the period.

OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities are likely
late Monday night into Tuesday along with a chance of
thunderstorms. MVFR ceilings may linger into Tuesday night and
Wednesday.
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&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...