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890
FXUS61 KILN 240658
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
258 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A wave of low pressure will bring showers and thunderstorms to
the Ohio Valley today. Drier weather is expected for Wednesday
through Thursday before a tropical system provides a chance of
precipitation late this week into the weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A swath of showers will decrease later this morning as a mid-
level impulse continues off to the east. Behind this energy, a
lull in the precipitation and perhaps thinning of the clouds
will likely allow for some destabilization to occur. The degree
of instability we achieve brings some uncertainty to the
forecast for this afternoon, with models ranging from 1000J/kg
to nearly 2500J/kg.

A wave of surface low pressure accompanying the parent mid-level
shortwave will offer an increased vertical shear profile. The
00Z HRRR has 40-50 knots of effective shear this afternoon
during our peak in diurnal instability.

Bottom line for this afternoon will be the threat for a few
storms containing damaging winds. Also can`t rule out a tornado
or two if storm-scale backing of the surface winds occurs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
The surface low will move away to the north this evening leaving
a trailing surface boundary laid out in the vicinity of our
northeast Kentucky counties. Have held onto PoPs in this area
closest to the boundary. Otherwise, tonight and Wednesday will
generally be drier than today with the lack of a stronger
forcing mechanism. Temperatures will range from near 80 along
and southeast of Interstate 71 with cooler highs in the 70s
to the northwest.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Models continue to show tropical moisture lifting northward toward
our area Thursday into Friday. There remains some uncertainty
as to how far north it will actually make it before it begins to
get wrapped into the deeper upper level low situated over the mid
to lower Mississippi Valley. Nonetheless, it does look like a
decent chance for showers to make it at least up into our southern
forecast area per the GFS and ECMWF ensemble means. Will therefore
go with likely pops across the south, trimming back to chance in our
north, with the highest QPF expected along and south of the Ohio
River.

The upper level low will slowly weaken and open up into a trough as
it lifts northeast toward the Great Lakes through the weekend and
into early next week. With moisture continuing to rotate around the
low, will hang to occasional chances for showers through the
remainder of the long term period.

Temperatures will be fairly seasonable with highs in the mid
70s to lower 80s through the weekend. Somewhat cooler temperatures
are expected on Monday with highs in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Weather impacts to aviation will come in two parts during the
TAF period today. First, early this morning, a mid-level
disturbance will bring a swath of showers with perhaps a few
rumbles of thunder to most of the region...with a focus on the
Cincinnati terminals. Because of the time of day, will likely
see low MVFR ceilings along with visibility restrictions during
this precipitation.

Second, after a brief lull, a surface wave of low pressure will
force another period of scattered to numerous showers and storms
during the afternoon hours. A few of these storms could be
strong, so will need to watch for gusty wind potential during
the convection as we hone in on timing through future TAF
updates.

Outside of storms, the wind will veer from southeasterly early
to southerly this afternoon. Could see a few gusts in the 15-20
knot range this afternoon.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings may linger into Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Coniglio
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...