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849
FXUS66 KMFR 181552
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
852 AM PDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.DISCUSSION...
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The upper low that brought precipitation for
portions of the area yesterday is digning south of the area this
mornimg. Radar and surface observations show mo precipitation is
occurring anywhere this morning and pops for this morning into
this afternoon have been removed from northern California. However
there some evidence a few showers could push into southeast Modoc
County this afternoon and moisture from the northern frindge of
the departing upper low pushes just far north. Instability is
marginal at best with little or no trigger, therefore any mention
of thunder has also been removed.

Satellite image shows lower level clouds in portions of the
Rogue, and Illinois, Umpqua and Coquille Basin. This will
gradually burn off later this morning with partly cloudy skies in
the afternoon. Other than the slight chance of precipitation
mentioned in southeast Modco County, it will be dry with milder
afternoon temperatures.
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.AVIATION...
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18/12Z TAFS...Lingering low level moisture has
resulted in low clouds in the Rogue, Illinois Valley, Umpqua and
Coquille Basin. This will perist for most of the morning with
ceilings hovering between IFR and MVFR, with ceilings gradually
increasing during the course of the morning. The terrain is likely
to remain partly obsured until at least 18z, and could persist until
21z. The trend is for clouds to gradually dissipate with VFR
conditions between 19-20z.
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.MARINE...
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Updated 850 AM Wednesday, September 18, 2024...A
thermal trough will build over the southern waters today, bringing
increasing northerly winds and steep seas south of Cape Blanco by
this evening, with steep seas then moving into northern waters
through at least Friday. Areas of very steep and hazardous seas are
possible south of Pistol River through Friday as well. A Hazardous
Seas Warning is in place for Thursday afternoon through Friday
evening for current areas where very steep seas are expected. The
area has been trimmed, but additional guidance will help to solidify
the timing and area of these conditions.

Elevated steep to very steep seas look to continue through the
weekend and into next week, with gusty northerly winds.
-Hermansen/Petrucelli
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.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Thursday to 5
     PM PDT Friday for PZZ350-370.

Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM PDT Friday
     for PZZ356-376.

     Hazardous Seas Warning from 5 AM Thursday to 5 PM PDT Friday for
     PZZ356-376.
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$$