-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
572
FXUS61 KOKX 221407
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1007 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure east of the region will continue to slowly depart
today. Meanwhile, high pressure noses in from the northeast and
remains in control through at least Tuesday. A frontal system then
approaches on Wednesday and moves across on Thursday. High
pressure slowly returns Friday and Saturday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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High pressure continues to build in from the north today as the
low pressure system off to the east continues to move away from
the region. Lowered sky cover a bit with the latest update to
capture current conditions. With less cloud expected, raised
high temperatures a degree or two across the Lower Hudson Valley
and northeast NJ. Expect dry conditions today along with a
northeast flow. The northeast winds will keep temperatures in
the lower and middle 70s today.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Expect a dry and cool pattern to continue through the short term.
High temperatures on Monday will only be in the upper 60s to
lower 70s while overnight lows fall into the 50s. A few upper
40s can not be ruled out overnight, especially the usually
cooler locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Points:

* Dry into daytime Tuesday.

* Possible showers Tue night through Thu night with an approaching
  frontal system.

* Uncertainty as to whether shower chances may continue into Fri or
  Sat.

* Temperatures near to slightly below normal from Mon-Thu, with
  moderation to slightly above normal Friday and Saturday.

Not much change in the long term and stuck fairly close to the NBM.

High pressure slowly starts to lift north on Tuesday. This will
allow a frontal boundary from the west to approach. PoPs start to
increase west of NYC Tuesday night, also to the NYC metro area and
western Long Island/CT daytime Wednesday, and throughout the
entire CWA Wednesday night/Thursday.

Model disagreement continues late in the week into next weekend with
the timing of the front exiting the region. Some forecast guidance
has the frontal system moving east as high pressure builds in from
the west, while others have the front moving slower with a weak wave
developing along it. Will continue to keep slight chance PoP for Fri
and dry conditions for Sat, but these are uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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High pressure ridges in from the northeast today.

MVFR stratus has scattered out. Expecting mainly VFR through
the TAF period. There could be some MVFR stratus again late
tonight into early Monday.

NE winds around 10kt expected through the TAF period. NE winds
more in the 5-10 kt range much of the time for KHPN, KSWF and
KTEB. Gusts 20-25 kt today into early evening, mainly east of
the city terminals.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Occasional gusts to 20kt possible this afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Monday: Mainly VFR. A chance of MVFR especially early.

Tuesday and Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with pockets of MVFR
in SHRA. E/NE G15-20kt possible at the coastal terminals.

Thursday: Chance of MVFR in SHRA.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
As low pressure continues to slowly drift away from the region, high
pressure will build in from the north. With the SCA gusts slowly
starting to diminish, seas will remain on all the ocean waters with
seas remaining well above 5ft. Seas peak today through Monday at 6
to 8 ft. The Small Craft Advisory has been extended into Monday
night, but will likely need to be extended further over the next
several forecast cycles. An extended period of hazardous ocean seas
and rough conditions at the inlets should remain through at least
Wednesday. Seas may start to diminish below 5 ft Wed night into Thu,
but could come back up again later on Thursday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through Tuesday.

Basin avg QPF from Wed into Thu night should range from 3/4 to 1
inch. Only minor nuisance impacts expected at most, mainly on
Thu.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Coastal flooding will continue into Monday, but impacts and areal
coverage will be on the downswing as astronomical tides continue to
lower. The offshore low responsible for the easterly swell that has
helped pile water into the area will slowly work southeast through
early next week. Once more cycle of widespread coastal flooding
occurs late this morning into the afternoon. There continues to be
potential for localized moderate flooding, especially for the south
shore back bays of Nassau. No changes were made to headlines for
this tide cycle. However, water levels may fall short across SE CT,
especially coastal New London.

The high tide cycle tonight into early Monday should largely fall
short of minor benchmarks, but the most vulnerable spots in the
south shore back bays of Nassau could briefly touch minor. Have
decided to hold off on a statement. Water levels came in slightly
lower than expected with the late Saturday night/early Sunday
morning high tide, and there is a good chance it ends up just being
Freeport that touches, with little to no impacts.

A coastal flood advisory is now in effect for high tide Monday
afternoon for the south shore back bays, Lower NY Harbor, and
adjacent locations along Western LI Sound in S. Fairfield and S.
Westchester. These are the areas that have the highest chance of
exceeding minor benchmarks. Water levels should remain below
moderate in S. Nassau. For most other locations, any coastal
flooding during the afternoon high tide Monday looks localized. Held
off on any statements for these locations for now, but may be needed
in subsequent forecasts.

The high rip current risk continues through Monday evening due to a
prolonged period of easterly swells.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
     CTZ009-010.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 PM to 6 PM EDT Monday for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
     NYZ071-073-078-176-177.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 PM to 6 PM EDT Monday for NYZ071.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     NYZ072-074-075-080-178-179.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM to 3 PM EDT Monday for
     NYZ074-075-178-179.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Monday afternoon for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     NJZ006-106-108.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM to 3 PM EDT Monday for
     NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC
NEAR TERM...BC/DS/JT
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC/JM
MARINE...BC
HYDROLOGY...BC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...