-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
790
FXUS61 KPHI 300135
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
935 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front passes offshore tonight and may stall some
thereafter. High pressure builds in Thursday and holds dominate
influence over the region into Sunday. Unsettled conditions
could return by late Sunday and continue into the middle of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 9:30PM...Latest radar imagery shows that all the
thunderstorm activity has shifted north and east of our area
leaving behind just some residual pockets of light rain and
scattered showers. Back towards the Delmarva, starting to see
some clearing nearing our southwestern counties as rain has
tapered off there. Satellite imagery depicts that the surface
low is over Central PA and will continue to move east through
the overnight hours. As it does so, there will still be some
instability around, so another rumble of thunder could be
possible. Best chance would be north and west of the I-95
corridor. All in all, light rain should continue through about
11pm-1am across the remainder of the region, before leaving
behind just a few isolated showers thereafter.

Overnight lows will be in the mid 50s. Skies will be mostly cloudy
and begin to clear towards sunrise early Thursday morning. Some
showers may linger across eastern NJ prior to sunrise.

Thursday looks to stay mostly dry, though a few isolated showers and
possibly a thunderstorm could develop in the afternoon as our mid
level trough remains over head. A weak shortwave will pivot around
the main trough and provide some weak and broad ascent across our
forecast area. While the best forcing will be south of the region,
we can`t rule out a few isolated showers across NJ and parts of the
Delmarva. That said, dew points at the surface will be in the upper
40s to low 50s and some showers may not reach the ground. Otherwise,
mostly sunny with highs around the low to mid 70s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The region will feel the influence of surface high pressure
throughout the duration of the short term. Surface high pressure
centered to our west Thursday night will gradually move eastward
with time. This surface high pressure will look to be centered over
the region for Saturday.

With surface high pressure in control of the region, expect a nice
and quiet short term with pleasant conditions. Some lingering
shortwave energy could persist into the first half of Thursday
night; a quick and isolated pop-up shower cannot be ruled out
entirely, but overall things will be quiet for the period. Friday
and Saturday will be beautiful sunny and dry days with surface high
pressure in control. We are looking at highs in the 70s Friday with
dewpoints in the 40s. For Saturday, we are looking at highs near 80F
with dewpoints mainly in the 40s. Both days will feel very
comfortable; being outdoors will be enjoyable.

Mainly clear skies will be present Thursday night and Friday night
with light winds in the forecast. Decent radiational cooling will
likely occur both nights. Overnight lows in the low to mid 50s can
be anticipated both nights.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Ensembles and deterministic models suggests a more zonal upper-level
pattern will take hold over the CONUS for long term. At the surface
level, guidance suggests surface high pressure will continue to hold
influence over the region Saturday night into Sunday while
continuing to move eastwards/southeastwards and offshore. As the
high shifts further offshore of the eastern CONUS with time Sunday
into Tuesday, some weak low pressure, associated fronts, and
shortwave energy could be invited to influence the region later
Sunday into next week. Overall, things could generally become
unsettled again Sunday afternoon onwards.

Not much confidence in details of the long term forecast today with
the forecast zonal upper-level pattern and its slow evolution.
Expect unsettled conditions Sunday afternoon onwards with chances
for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoons/evenings.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Tonight...VFR expected, with some scattered low clouds at times.
Removed the mention of thunder at all TAF sites as the primary
round of thunderstorms have moved away from the area. Expect
mostly periods of light rain and scattered showers through 06Z.
After 06Z, rain should taper off to more isolated showers.
Variable winds initially, becoming W-NW winds around 5-10 kt.
Low confidence overall.

Thursday...VFR expected. Slight chance of a shower for I-95
terminals during the afternoon, but confidence is not high so
left out of the TAF. NW-N winds around 10 kt. Moderate
confidence.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Saturday night...VFR. High confidence.

Sunday...Mainly VFR. Sub-VFR cigs could develop for some sites by
the afternoon. Moderate confidence.

Monday...Mainly VFR, though some sub-VFR cigs could linger. Moderate
confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions through Thursday. Southerly winds this
evening around 10kt will shift W-NW overnight. Showers and a
few thunderstorms possible with a surface low moving east
tonight and out to sea early Thursday. Winds shift N-NE around
10 kt on Thursday. Seas will linger around 2-3 feet.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Monday...No marine headlines anticipated.

Rip Currents...

For Thursday, northwest winds around 10 mph will veer northeast
in the afternoon. Breaking waves will be 2 to 3 feet. With the
lighter winds and shorter period swells, there will continue to
be a LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip currents
along the New Jersey and Delaware beaches.

Friday will be very similar to Thursday. North winds around 10
mph will become northeast later in the day. Breaking waves will
be about 2 feet. This will result in a LOW risk for the
development of dangerous rip currents along the New Jersey and
Delaware beaches.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

As always, rip currents can still develop, and often occur in the
vicinities of jetties and piers. Utilize any guarded beaches if
venturing out into the water.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Wunderlin
NEAR TERM...DeSilva/MJL
SHORT TERM...Wunderlin
LONG TERM...Wunderlin
AVIATION...DeSilva/MJL/Wunderlin
MARINE...MJL/Wunderlin