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246
FXUS65 KPSR 062315
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
415 PM MST Sun Jul 6 2025

.UPDATE...
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Updated Aviation
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&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- Warming temperatures and generally dry conditions are expected
this week with highs around 115 degrees for lower desert locations
by Wednesday

- Rising temperatures will result in widespread Major HeatRisk
leading to Extreme Heat Warnings for much the region Tuesday through
Thursday
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Early afternoon convection remains limited to far southeastern AZ
and the White Mountains, thus clear skies will persist across the
immediate forecast area aside from some building cumulus atop higher
terrain features later this afternoon. Building high pressure
continues the rise of temperatures where the highs today should top
out a few degrees above normal.

By Monday, building high pressure will start to force its will on
the Pacific Low and resume its migration further over the Desert
Southwest, eroding the trough and keeping it well north of our
forecast area. In turn, very little if any, changes in conditions
are expected heading into the start of next week. Temperatures
Monday afternoon for lower elevation locations will range between
106-112 degrees. Any rain chances over the state during the near-
term will be focused over southeastern Arizona as moisture profiles
across most of the region remain underwhelming for robust and
widespread monsoon related convection.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Models continue to remain in excellent agreement regarding the
spatial progression of the sub-tropical ridge during the remainder
of the upcoming week. With projections continuing to show further
enhancement of this feature (heights pushing 597-599dm) and it
eventually becoming parked virtually right on top of Arizona and
southern California, conditions will remain hot and dry through this
timeframe. Temperatures will continue to rise and peak on Wednesday,
where lower desert highs will hover around 115 degrees, resulting in
widespread Major HeatRisk. In turn, an Extreme Heat Watch was issued
for portions of the region (Phoenix metro and surrounding areas)
Tuesday, while most of south-central and southwestern Arizona, along
with southeastern California, will join in on the watch Wednesday.
These products will initially last until Thursday (except for higher
terrain zones east of Phoenix which last just for Wednesday), but
some uncertainty in temperature forecasts may limit the temporal
extent of a future Extreme Heat Warning to just Wednesday as well
for those areas in southwestern AZ and southeast CA. The one caveat
is a projected low-level moisture increase, thanks to a surge from
the Gulf of California, may limit daytime heating. However, the
added moisture will push heat indices upward, making the ambient
temps Wednesday and apparent temps Thursday about equal. Height
anomalies are shown decreasing toward the end of the week,
indicating a the potential for a slight cooldown, but MaxTs should
remain above normal through this period as the high remains overhead.

As mentioned above, with the high parked right over us and
unfavorable flow aloft preventing increased moisture flux,
conditions are expected to remain mostly dry. Best chances rainfall
will remain over Tucson`s area where slightly better moisture
profiles will be present. There are hints at that towards the
weekend, we could see some slightly better moisture that could help
induce some terrain influenced convection, but plenty of uncertainty
remains so chances remain fairly low (20-30%) at this time. As for
lower desert areas, moisture looks to remain too minimal to get any
activity by the weekend so it appears that any more rainfall will
have to wait at least another week or so.
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&&

.AVIATION...
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Updated at 2315Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, KDVT:
No significant weather concerns will exist through Monday afternoon
with mid/high cloud decks mainly relegated to mountain areas east of
the terminals. Confidence remains excellent that wind trends will be
similar to the past 24 hours with minor afternoon gustiness, and a
more definitive overnight shift to an easterly drainage component.


Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No weather impacts will exist through Monday afternoon under clear
skies. Confidence remains excellent that wind trends will be similar
to the past 24 hours primarily varying between SE and SW, albeit
with periods of variability during morning hours.
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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
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Above-normal temperatures will prevail over the next several days,
with lower desert highs approaching 110 degrees by this afternoon.
MinRHs values over the next several days will range around 10-15%,
with lower values closer to 5-10% today across the deserts of
California. MaxRH values are not expected to offer much relief as
readings near 20-45% can be expected. Winds will follow familiar
diurnal trends, with typical afternoon breeziness. Minimal chances
for rainfall exist across the region through the week, with CWR <10%
through Friday.
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&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM Wednesday to 8 PM MST Thursday
     for AZZ530>533-535-536.

     Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM Tuesday to 8 PM MST Thursday for
     AZZ534-537>540-542>544-546-548-550-551-553>555-559-560.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM MST Wednesday for AZZ557-558-
     563.

     Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM MST Wednesday for AZZ541-
     545-547-549-552-556-561-562.

CA...Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM Wednesday to 8 PM PDT Thursday
     for CAZ560>570.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Young/RW
LONG TERM...RW
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...RW