-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
935
FXUS62 KRAH 151813
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
214 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will continue to move south of central North Carolina
early today, then stall across South Carolina tonight and Sunday.
High pressure will extend into the region from the Atlantic through
much of the upcoming week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 214 PM Saturday...

The surface front has largely pushed into central SC. Meanwhile, a
sea-breeze is evident on KLTX radar, pushing inland but still pinned
just inland of the coast. The last few hours of satellite data has
indicated some agitated cumulus developing mainly from Sampson
County and locations south. Most 12Z CAMs keep activity south of
central NC, but the inland penetrating sea-breeze could warrant some
very isolated showers or storms along the Sandhills and southern
Coastal Plain late this afternoon and evening. Any activity should
wane after sunset with loss of heating. Some light gusts are
possible tonight as the sea-breeze moves into central NC, but
overall the flow should trend ESE overnight as the high to our north
builds eastward. As that happens, some low stratus could form over
the western Piedmont/Triad early Sun with return upslope flow. Some
CAMs are even showing some isolated showers in this area. Have left
the forecast dry at the moment given lack of forcing. Lows tonight
in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 310 AM Saturday...

Mid-level ridging will start to build along the east coast Sunday.
At the sfc, Saturday`s cold front will remain stalled to our south.
As such, mostly dry and hot conditions will persist on Sunday as
temps rise again up into the upper 80s/lower 90s. Afternoon
convection should largely be confined to the upslope mountain areas.
However, a few isolated cells could trickle in the far western
Piedmont late afternoon. Overall though, it should be quite dry.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 310 AM Saturday...

The extended period will be largely warm and dry with no significant
frontal passages, as central NC is under the influence of an
anomalous mid/upper anticyclone that will continue to strengthen,
from 594 dam at 500 mb to as much as 600 dam by midweek. Latest
guidance is in pretty good agreement on the placement of the
anticyclone, with the 00z ECMWF and GFS keeping it centered over our
region on Monday before drifting it to the northern Mid-Atlantic and
New England from Tuesday through Thursday. Guidance then weakens it
slightly but drops it back south to the southern mid-Atlantic coast
on Friday. At the surface, high pressure initially centered off the
New England coast early in the week will slowly drift south closer
to Bermuda by late week, extending west into central NC. This will
keep the low-level flow over central NC largely from the SE through
the period.

Dry air and subsidence from the strong ridging both aloft and at the
surface should really suppress any convective development through
the period. The main effect in our region from the SE flow should
just be some clouds each afternoon, particularly in the west. A few
upslope showers and storms may develop each afternoon over the
Appalachians, but easterly flow aloft should help pin them close to
the mountains, which is backed up by the latest ensemble guidance.
The best chance of any drifting east into our western Piedmont is
Monday when the mid/upper anticyclone is directly overhead and the
flow aloft is weak, but still not enough confidence for any POPs at
this time. The ridge may start to break down some by late week, but
with the latest guidance bringing it farther south and closer to our
region than before, maintain a dry forecast through the period other
than slight chance POPs in the far SE on Friday.

Temperatures will be slightly above normal through the period, with
highs generally in the lower-to-mid-90s and lows in the mid-to-upper-
60s. The good news is models seem in pretty good agreement there
will be enough mixing to keep dew points from getting too
oppressive, generally lower-to-mid-60s. This will keep heat indices
each day very close to the actual air temperatures. Still, with such
an extended period of warm temperatures, basic heat precautions
should be made, including staying hydrated and taking frequent
breaks if you have to be outside in the hottest part of the day.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 105 PM Saturday...

VFR conditions are likely to prevail through the majority of the TAF
period. With some return upslope flow developing over the western
Piedmont overnight, some early morning MVFR stratus is possible at
INT/GSO. Forecast probabilities are around 30-35 percent, so
confidence is not particularly high. Elsewhere, the lingering cool
front combined with an inland sea-breeze could bring an isolated
shower or storm at FAY this evening, but confidence was too low to
mention. Winds of ENE today will become ESE on Sun.

Outlook: A very isolated shower or storm is possible at INT/GSO Sun
aftn/eve. Some early morning stratus is possible at KINT/KGSO Mon
morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the period.

&&


.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Kren
NEAR TERM...Kren
SHORT TERM...Luchetti
LONG TERM...Danco
AVIATION...Kren