-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
939
FXUS62 KRAH 160702
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
300 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A stationary front will hold to our south and southwest, across
South Carolina and southwest North Carolina, through tonight, before
weakening and dissipating. Deep high pressure will build over the
Mid Atlantic and Carolinas through mid week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 217 AM Sunday...

Sfc analysis early this morning depicted a fading sea breeze
stretched across the central Piedmont/Sandhills.  Further south, a
stalled front was evident along the NC coast, extending southwest
into southern SC.  Aloft, the anomalous mid-level ridge continues to
extend along the eastern seaboard.

Overall, today should be pretty similar to yesterday, mostly dry and
hot.  While low-level flow will remain primarily esely today, the
deepest moisture will pool along the Foothills/Mountains to our
south and west. This area should be the main focus for convection
today (and along the front in south central SC). However, can`t rule
out a stray shower/storm moving into the southern Piedmont later
this afternoon. Highs today will max out in the upper 80s/lower 90s.
Warm overnight lows in the upper 60s will persist tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 217 AM Sunday...

The anomalous mid-level ridge will amplify up into the northeast US
on Sunday.  This will promote yet another hot and dry day for
central NC. Low-level esely flow will persist, but the deeper
moisture/instability axis will shift further northwest into the TN
Valley on Monday. Most afternoon convection will follow suit, as
central NC remains primarily dry.  Highs will once again reach the
lower 90s. Dew points will struggle to mix out a bit more compared
to Sunday, and thus expect a bit more uncomfortable sensible
weather.  While heat indices will stay well below advisory criteria,
given the persistent hot temperatures we`ve experienced recently,
it`s advised to practice heat safety including hydrating and taking
frequent breaks in shady areas if participating in outdoor
activities.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 300 AM Sunday...

Hot and dry conditions will remain the story through much of the
upcoming week, with temperatures generally above normal and rain
chances below normal, at least until later in the week. There is a
small chance for increasing moisture into the Southeast states mid-
to-late week, but confidence in this is very low.

A strong mid level anticyclone will be parked over VA/NC early Tue,
assuring warm/dry/stable air aloft and suppressing deep convection.
At the surface, a strong high centered out over the NW Atlantic well
offshore of New England will continue to extend ESE through NC. The
extended duration of long-fetch onshore-directed easterly flow along
the southern edge of the surface ridge could bring some enhanced
cloudiness into our area during the mid week, including clouds
associated with an inland-progressing sea breeze, mainly across our
southern sections. However, with low PW in place, any precipitation
would be restricted to isolated shallow showers, with the strong mid
level ridge greatly limiting thunder potential Tue. The mid level
anticyclone`s center is expected to wobble to the NE to be centered
over NJ/NYC by early Thu, before then drifting back SE and S to off
the NC coast or over the coastal Carolinas by Sat. The surface
high`s center is expected to drift southward during this time, all
the while extending across NC, although models depict a lee trough
developing over the W Piedmont by Sat as the surface ridge weakens.
The result is below normal PW persisting through much of Thu, then
as the mid level anticyclone drifts down to our latitude, the
veering of low-mid level winds to deep southeasterly is expected to
draw improving Atlantic-source moisture and higher PWs into our
area, particular across southern and western NC. So after very low
to no rain chances through Wed, we should see pops returning to the
area by Thu-Sat, low N and higher in the S and W, with upslope
directed flow helping to enhance pops over the SE-facing slopes into
the foothills.

It must be noted that a possible forecast complication arises by Wed
night. The latest runs of a few of the deterministic global models
depict an inverted trough or a closed surface low developing on the
southern end of the surface ridge a few hundred miles E or ENE of
the northern Bahamas by mid week. Such a low, if it forms, may be
tropical (warm core) in nature, not an unexpected turn of events
given long easterly low level fetch, the time of year, the extremely
warm ocean waters, and the models` consensus of very weak upper
level shear in this area. But the location and timing of such a
feature on this handful of deterministic models still vary quite a
bit, by hundreds of miles and 24-36 hrs, respectively, with varying
strengths as well. The EC-AIFS doesn`t show any discernible low or
trough at all, nor does the LREF mean, and any signal within the
parent ensemble means is, as one might expect, a bit washed out and
tough to track, although the GEFS low centers are somewhat better
clustered. At this point, the most likely scenario is an inverted
trough or perhaps a low pushing westward and onshore somewhere
between CHS and MIA between Wed night and midday Fri, with the
better rain chances holding to our S as ridging dominates much of
NC. But again, confidence is low, so stay tuned for later forecasts.

While the mid levels will be quite warm over the region this week,
the comparatively cool surface ridge will keep our low level
thicknesses near normal through Thu, as the most dangerous heat
holds to our N over the southern Great Lakes region into the Ohio
Valley and Northeast states. Temperatures should still be roughly a
category above normal Tue-Thu, with plentiful sunshine. After this
time, however, there are strong indications of increasing heat
across our area starting Fri but especially over next weekend, when
the heat could become a significant health hazard for NC, with shade
air temperatures peaking in the mid-upper 90s. -GIH
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 123 AM Sunday...

VFR conditions will prevail through the 24 hr TAF period under dry
high pressure. A stray mountain shower could move into the Triad
region early this morning, but confidence is too low to include in
the KINT/KGSO TAFs. Otherwise, MVFR ceilings will likely pool across
the foothills/mountains later this morning. It`s not quite clear
whether some of these lower ceilings will trickle over KINT/KGSO,
however there is enough guidance suggesting they will warranting a
continued TEMPO group at both sites between ~09 and 12Z.  Any
lingering stratus will lift through mid morning. Expect dry VFR
conditions to then prevail through the end of the TAF period.

Outlook:  Some early morning stratus could be possible especially at
KINT/KGSO Monday mornings. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected.

&&


.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Luchetti
SHORT TERM...Luchetti
LONG TERM...Hartfield
AVIATION...Luchetti