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614
FXUS62 KTBW 161318
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
918 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 918 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Easterly flow will be establishing today as stronger high pressure
builds into the area. Flow will still be weak enough to allow for
sea breeze development near the coast. Plenty of moisture also
still available for scattered to numerous afternoon showers and
storms pushing toward the coast in the evening. A little drier air
moves over the area for the first half of the week, lowering rain
chances more into the 30-40 percent range each afternoon, then
some deeper moisture returns for the end of the week. Will be
continuing to monitor the area of low pressure off the east FL
coast, currently with a 30 percent chance of development over the
next 7 days. Current forecast is on track and have no updates
planned.
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&&

.AVIATION...
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(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 918 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Light easterly flow in place this morning will turn onshore at the
coastal terminals this afternoon. Scattered to numerous showers
and storms will develop inland around 18Z and push towards the
coast by 21Z. Convection should be offshore and dissipating by
03Z, with winds returning to the ENE and becoming light again. VFR
conditions prevail, but MVFR to IFR possible in storms.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Issued at 918 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Flow is transitioning to a deeper easterly direction today as
stronger high pressure builds into the area. Flow will be light
enough today to allow for an afternoon sea breeze near the coast.
Morning showers will be dissipating over the next hour or so, then
later afternoon and evening storms will be possible as they move
offshore from the diurnal convection. This pattern will continue
through mid-week, with some evening surges possible bringing winds
up near SCEC levels for a few hours each night. Will be continuing
to monitor the area off of the FL east coast for the end of the
period.
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  77  93  77 /  60  40  20  10
FMY  92  76  92  77 /  40  30  30  10
GIF  94  75  91  75 /  60  30  20  10
SRQ  94  75  94  76 /  50  40  30  10
BKV  94  72  94  72 /  60  40  20   0
SPG  93  80  94  80 /  60  40  30  10

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 3

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Hubbard
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Carlisle