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127
FXUS65 KVEF 271811
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1111 AM PDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Precipitation chances will dwindle through Friday as
monsoon moisture is shunted east. Meanwhile, breezy winds return and
hot temperatures persist heading into next week. New wildfires in
central California will bring dense smoke to Inyo County at times
while hazy conditions are possible elsewhere across southern Nevada.
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&&


.UPDATE...
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A shortwave trough axis pushing through the forecast area
today will usher dry air into the area through the day today. That
said, anomalous PWATs will remain over northwestern Arizona through
the afternoon. Clear skies this morning will allow CAPE to exceed
1000 J/kg. As such, can expect another round of convection today in
eastern Lincoln County and northern Mohave County today. Convection
will continue to favor the higher terrain with frequent lightning,
locally heavy rainfall, and gusty winds possible. Steering flow of
around 15-20 kts across the Arizona Strip should be enough to
prevent flash flooding, but cannot rule out increased flow in washes
- especially in areas that have received rain over the last few days
due to increased soil moisture.

The low temperature this morning was 91 in Las Vegas. If
temperatures do not drop below 90F before midnight, this will break
the record for consecutive days of low temperatures 90F or warmer in
the month of June. The previous record was 3 days set yesterday. The
record before that was 2 days set in both 2021 and 2017.
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&&


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
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153 AM PDT Thu Jun 27 2024/

.SHORT TERM...Through Friday night.

Drier air starting to infiltrate into the region this morning. As of
1 am, surface dewpoints around Las Vegas running 12-17 degrees lower
than last night, Bishop CA 7 degrees lower and Kingman 6 degrees
lower, respectively. That drying trend will continue well into
Friday as guidance shows surface dewpoints falling back into the 20s
and 30s in eastern California and southern Nevada, and 30s and 40s
for northwest Arizona. But before all that moisture gets scoured out
there will be isolated thunderstorms in northeastern Mohave County
and far northern Lincoln County today, no storms in the forecast
Friday.

Wind gusts will be stronger today and Friday as a trough quickly
progresses east through the northern states. That westerly flow will
allow for the transport of dense smoke into Inyo County from a
complex of wildfires in Fresno County. HRRR smoke indicates more
hazy conditions will occur throughout southern Nevada.

High temperatures will continue to run several degrees above normal.
While drier air will allow for `cooler` overnight lows.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday.

High pressure ridge will rebuild across the southern US over the
weekend with lingering weak troughing across the PacNW states. This
will leave our region on the western edge of the broad high pressure
ridge and within a weak south-southwesterly flow aloft. This will
result in continued hot conditions through the weekend with
afternoon breezes. As far as precipitation potential goes, we will
have to watch for increasing monsoonal moisture in this pattern,
particularly across Northwest Arizona, where precipitable water
anomalies climb above 150% by Sunday afternoon, though for now PoPs
remain fairly modest with uncertainty in the quality and timing of
the moisture. The flow pattern will change little heading into next
week with at least low grade monsoonal moisture remaining focused
into Arizona, with hot and increasingly dry conditions likely
further west.
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&&


.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Breezy southwesterly winds will
continue into the morning hours with occasional 15 to 20 knot wind
gusts. Winds will continue to maintain their southwesterly
direction, but will begin increasing in magnitude throughout the
morning and afternoon with wind gusts around 25 knots expected this
afternoon. Wind gusts will continue into the evening hours before
gradually decreasing during the overnight hours.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...KHND and KVGT will see southwesterly winds increase
throughout the morning into the afternoon, with 25 to 30 knot wind
gusts expected during the afternoon and evening hours. Winds at KBIH
will favor a northwesterly direction through mid-afternoon when
winds will swing to a more westerly direction before shifting back
to the northwest during the evening hours. KDAG will favor a
westerly direction with 15 to 20 knot sustained winds and 25 to 30
knot wind gusts into the evening hours. The Colorado River Valley
TAF sites will see breezy southerly winds increase with 20 to 25
knot wind gusts picking up later this morning and continuing through
the afternoon.
&&


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Soulat
SHORT TERM...Pierce
LONG TERM...Outler
AVIATION...Stessman

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