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958
FXUS65 KVEF 280252
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
800 PM PDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Remnant monsoonal moisture will return showers and
thunderstorms to the far eastern edges of Lincoln and Mohave
counties today. Elsewhere, expect clear skies, gusty southwest
winds, and above-average temperatures for the remainder of the work
week and through the weekend. Temperatures will continue to climb
next week under mostly sunny skies.
&&

.UPDATE...
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Drier air has worked into much of the forecast area thanks
to an increasingly southwesterly flow aloft. This evenings 00z VEF
sounding sampled 0.74 inches of precipitable water which is the
driest it`s been in several days...with even drier air on the way
for tomorrow. There is a couple of stray storms which have formed
along a slowly southward sagging cold front draped across the Great
Basin, which are currently impacting far northern Lincoln County,
but otherwise dry conditions exist elsewhere.

With dry and stable air continuing to work in tomorrow, the entire
area should remain convection free. The current forecast is in good
shape with no adjustments needed.

-Outler-



.SHORT TERM...Today and Friday.

A closed low is pushing into the Pacific Northwest today, which will
result in an associated trough axis pushing through our forecast
area this afternoon. This trough axis will usher dry air into the
region, effectively squashing precipitation chances everywhere
except for the eastern fringes of our County Warning Area (CWA).
PWATs in excess of 1 inch will continue for Mohave County and
eastern Lincoln County this afternoon with forecast CAPE values
greater than 1000 J/kg. That said, with a steering flow of 15 to 20
kts, flash flooding is not expected to be a concern today.

Elsewhere, expect clear skies, above-average temperatures, and gusty
southwest winds. As the dry air moves in, afternoon relative
humidity values drop to the single-digits. These dry conditions
coupled with breezy conditions will increase fire danger both today
and Friday.

The low temperature this morning in Las Vegas was 91 degrees. Dry
air moving into the region may allow temperatures to cool below 90
degrees before midnight tonight. If this occurs, this would break
the current streak of low temperatures at or above 90 degrees in Las
Vegas. The current streak is 3 days, which breaks the previous
record of 2 days set in both 2021 and 2017.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday.

The aforementioned shortwave trough will push the monsoonal high
pressure eastward over Texas. This will funnel the clockwise flow of
moisture advection into Arizona through the weekend and start of
next week. As such, slight PoPs will return to eastern Mohave County
each day starting Sunday through the rest of the forecast period.

Temperatures will slowly increase through midweek as heights
gradually rise over the region. Late-week, models are in decent
agreement that a Pacific area of high pressure will build over the
Desert Southwest, resulting in high temperatures around 10 degrees
above seasonal averages for the upcoming holiday.
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&&


.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Breezy south-to-southwest winds with
occasional gusts to 28kts will continue through this evening.
Winds should diminish to less than 15kts overnight, but a few
gusts to 20kts will remain possible. Southwesterly winds, gusty at
times, will continue on Friday. VFR conditions will prevail into
the weekend, with maximum temperatures of 108F to 110F expected
each afternoon.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Gusty south to southwest winds will continue across the
Las Vegas and Colorado River valleys into this evening.  A slight
decrease in speeds is expected overnight, although speeds will
likely remain above 12kts at most sites.  At KBIH, breezy westerly
winds are expected late this afternoon and evening before winds
return to the north overnight.  KDAG will see westerly winds, with
gusts of 30kts at times, continuing into Friday.  All regional TAF
sites will have VFR conditions under mostly clear skies.
&&


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Soulat
AVIATION...Planz

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