Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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613 FXUS65 KABQ 230527 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1127 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 217 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Low temperatures will be cool again tonight with lots of 30s over the north and west. Widespread 40s and 50s are likely over the south and east. More clouds and perhaps some patchy fog may form along the east slopes of the central mountain chain and nearby highlands late tonight. Strong upper level high pressure is then expected to build into NM from the west through the end of this week. High temperatures will trend above normal across central and western NM with light winds and mostly clear skies. Temperatures will remain near to slightly below normal across eastern NM with persistent east to northeast winds. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 217 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Another relatively cool night is in store tonight with light winds and partly cloudy to mostly clear skies forecast. Patch low clouds are possible this evening along the east slopes of the central mountain chain and central highlands, gradually dissipating overnight. South winds develop over much central and eastern NM Monday, allowing temperatures to warm up several degrees with the eastern plains forecast to experience the greatest warming. A weak short wave trough dropping southeastward out of CO on Monday will help get isolated showers and thunderstorms going over the northern mountains during the afternoon. It`s this short wave that will likely not allow much ground fog to develop tonight outside of the Moreno Valley as heights decrease slowly after midnight. Shower and storm motion on Monday afternoon will be to the southeast at around 15 mph. Elsewhere Monday, dry air and light winds will result in tranquil weather. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 217 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Medium to extended range forecast models are finally in better agreement regarding the longwave pattern for the central and western CONUS this week. A 568dm H5 low over eastern NB will move south into the Ozarks region Tuesday while a high amplitude 589dm H5 ridge builds over the intermountain west. This pattern will help force a weak backdoor cold front into eastern NM Tuesday afternoon. Temps will remain slightly below normal across the northeast while central and western NM warms closer to normal with mostly sunny skies and lighter winds. The upper level ridge will drift southeast into NM Wednesday and Thursday with warming temps for the entire region. A very dry mid and upper level airmass will juxtapose moist, shallow low level easterly flow over the region. Patchy fog may occur over parts of eastern NM each morning given recent rains and overnight humidity recoveries close to 100%. By Friday, a weak trough axis extending westward from the main H5 low to our east may pinwheel southward over NM. This is not likely to result in any significant change to the sensible weather. Low level moisture may increase even more over eastern NM with greater risk for low clouds and patchy fog Saturday and Sunday across the east. Otherwise, temps will remain above normal across the west and near normal across the east. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1118 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Satellite imagery shows a patch of MVFR cigs along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo mountains and another smaller area along and east of the south-central mountains. BKN ceilings are expected to persist for the next few hours, breaking up after 10Z as winds veer and turn around to the south. There is a low chance (10-20%) that patchy fog develops in the eastern plains between 09Z and sunrise, with higher confidence (40-60%) in northern mountain valleys, including the Moreno Valley. A few sprinkles are possible in the northern mountains tomorrow, but it will be an otherwise quiet day with mostly clear skies and light winds (<10KT). && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 217 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024 An extended period of dry weather is forecast during the next week to 10 days as the monsoon high teams up with a polar jet stream ridge to form a much stronger than is typical upper high over NM and much of the Southwest U.S. Isolated, weak showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday through the weekend as relatively weak backdoor fronts bring some Gulf moisture into eastern NM. High temperatures are forecast to be below average Monday, rising to above average values for the remainder of the week and into next weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 47 77 47 81 / 5 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 36 74 36 79 / 20 10 0 0 Cuba............................ 41 72 44 77 / 10 5 0 0 Gallup.......................... 35 78 41 81 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 38 75 44 78 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 36 77 41 81 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 38 75 43 79 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 44 74 50 78 / 0 0 0 5 Datil........................... 39 75 45 77 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 40 82 42 86 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 48 85 51 88 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 35 67 38 73 / 20 20 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 45 69 50 75 / 20 5 0 5 Pecos........................... 43 71 48 74 / 20 10 0 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 40 68 43 71 / 20 10 0 5 Red River....................... 33 61 34 62 / 20 20 0 5 Angel Fire...................... 26 64 27 66 / 20 10 0 5 Taos............................ 36 71 38 76 / 10 10 0 5 Mora............................ 37 70 41 72 / 10 20 0 10 Espanola........................ 43 77 45 82 / 10 5 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 45 72 50 76 / 10 5 0 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 42 75 47 80 / 5 5 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 50 78 56 83 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 51 79 55 85 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 47 81 52 86 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 48 80 54 85 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 44 82 48 85 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 47 81 51 86 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 43 80 48 85 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 48 81 51 87 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 44 81 50 85 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 46 77 52 82 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 49 81 52 85 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 51 85 55 88 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 42 71 48 75 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 40 74 46 79 / 0 0 0 5 Edgewood........................ 37 74 41 79 / 0 0 0 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 37 76 40 80 / 0 0 0 5 Clines Corners.................. 40 72 46 75 / 0 0 0 5 Mountainair..................... 40 75 46 78 / 0 0 0 5 Gran Quivira.................... 41 75 46 78 / 0 0 0 5 Carrizozo....................... 49 79 53 82 / 0 5 0 10 Ruidoso......................... 44 72 49 74 / 5 10 0 20 Capulin......................... 38 70 44 68 / 0 0 5 5 Raton........................... 40 75 43 74 / 5 5 0 5 Springer........................ 39 75 42 76 / 5 5 0 5 Las Vegas....................... 40 72 43 75 / 10 10 0 5 Clayton......................... 44 75 52 75 / 0 0 5 10 Roy............................. 42 72 47 75 / 5 5 0 10 Conchas......................... 46 77 50 80 / 5 0 0 5 Santa Rosa...................... 44 75 48 76 / 0 0 0 5 Tucumcari....................... 44 77 51 80 / 0 0 0 10 Clovis.......................... 47 79 56 84 / 0 0 0 20 Portales........................ 47 79 55 84 / 0 0 0 20 Fort Sumner..................... 46 77 52 82 / 0 0 0 10 Roswell......................... 54 82 60 88 / 5 0 5 5 Picacho......................... 49 78 52 83 / 5 5 0 10 Elk............................. 46 80 50 82 / 5 10 5 10 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...16