664
FXUS65 KABQ 101132 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
532 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 212 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024

Strong winds in ABQ taper off some this morning with one
more strong surge forecast this evening and tonight. Despite the
cool down, the increased moisture behind this front will yield
increased showers and a few thunderstorms over north-central,
central and eastern NM today and Saturday. A few storms will be
strong enough to produce small hail and gusty winds and brief
moderate to heavy rainfall. Drier conditions push west to east
across the state Sunday with showers and a few storms lasting
longest over northern and northeastern NM Sunday evening. A warming
trend returns to start next week with daily rounds of scattered
afternoon showers and storms Monday and Tuesday. Guidance is good
that continued chances for showers and storms will continue into the
Wednesday and Thursday timeframe, at least across northern and
eastern NM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 212 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024

The latest water vapor imagery shows a well-defined upper level low
drifting south across central NV with fast west-southwest flow aloft
over AZ and NM. At the surface, low level east-northeast winds have
set up across NM between a 1009mb low near Phoenix and a 1026mb high
near Colorado Springs. The pressure gradient across the central mt
chain has allowed gap winds to continue this morning but speeds are
still below High Wind Warning levels. The latest MOS guidance, NBM
50th percentile, and most HREF members keep gusts below 58 mph, so
this hazard will likely be cancelled before sunrise. Meanwhile, any
remnant showers and storms over northern NM early this morning will
decrease after sunrise with very slow improvement to stratus decks
across northeast NM. Locations around the Sangre de Cristo Mts will
stay socked in all day with temps around 15F below normal.

The upper low over NV will then drift southeast into northern AZ
this afternoon and near the Four Corners region tonight. Moisture
advection with strengthening low level southeast flow over eastern
NM will interact with large scale ascent increasing over NM thru
tonight. Showers and storms will redevelop along and east of the
central mt chain by late this afternoon then move northeast into
nearby highlands and plains of eastern NM thru this evening. Model
instability is not impressive and most activity will move into a
more elevated unstable layer across the plains tonight. Widespread
areas of rain with embedded storms are expected thru Saturday across
eastern NM as the upper level low moves slowly east along the NM/CO
border. QPF amounts have trended up considerably from WPC and this
trend is also noted in hi-res CAMs. Widespread rainfall amounts of
0.25" to 0.75" are forecast for northern and eastern NM with an area
greater than 1.25" over northeast NM. Temps will be cold enough for
to support a few more inches of snow above 9,500 feet. Gap winds are
also likely to develop in the RGV tonight with gusts near 55 mph
on the east side of the ABQ metro. Temps on Saturday will be
around 20F below normal across eastern NM.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 212 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024

Saturday night begins the long term period with the
566dm H5 low tracking eastward over CO with its associated Pacific
front shunting low-level moisture across eastern NM back toward TX.
Numerical model guidance is in fairly good agreement evening and
overnight thunderstorm development will focus along the northern
reaches of southerly return flow in east-central NM just north of I-
40 over San Miguel County. Brief downpours, cloud-to-ground
lightning, gusty winds and small hail will accompany these storm
cells. Southwesterly flow aloft will track these storms northeast
over the northeastern plains including Harding and Union Counties
Saturday night. Drier westerly air fills in behind the Pacific front
through the forecast area Sunday as the center of the H5 low tracks
over southeastern CO. Enough moisture will be present in association
with a vortmax wrapping around the backside of the low over
northeastern NM. Showers and a few thunderstorms are likely to
develop over northeastern NM Sunday afternoon tracking southeast
Sunday evening. Gusty winds, cloud-to-ground lightning and small
hail will be possible in these storms.

Monday and Tuesday see a warming trend ensue most areas as a weak
ridge begins to move over from the west. There will be enough mid-
level moisture to allow for high-based showers and a few
thunderstorms over north-central NM. Some of these cells could
produce strong erratic gusty winds at the surface each afternoon.

Forecast confidence tanks Wednesday and beyond due to the wide
variety of scenarios regarding the interaction of an upper low over
the southwest U.S. and an upper trough diving down the western
CONUS. Did not deviate much from the NBM during this time as it
matches well with a cluster of ensemble solutions showing the two
lows phasing together with an amplified ridging pattern building in
behind them. This would yield an influx of cooler air and higher
moisture pushing into eastern NM behind a backdoor cold front.
Increased shower and thunderstorm activity would return to eastern
and northern NM as a result Wednesday and Thursday in this scenario.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 510 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024

Impactful weather will continue across the airspace over the next
24 hrs. Widespread MVFR cigs and local IFR across northeast NM
this morning will gradually improve by early afternoon. However,
locations around the Sangre de Cristo Mts may not improve to VFR
today. The next round of showers and storms will develop along
the central mt chain and spread northeast into nearby highlands
after 3 pm. This activity will evolve into a large area of rain
with embedded storms tonight along and east of the central mt
chain. Widespread IFR will develop overnight across eastern NM
with MVFR in surrounding areas of the Rio Grande Valley and the
TX/NM border. Gap winds will also increase again in the Santa Fe
and ABQ metro areas with gusts of 30 to 40 kt common after 6pm.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 212 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024

A pattern change toward cooler and wetter conditions will persist
over northern and eastern NM thru the end of next week. Widespread
rainfall of 0.25" to 0.75" is expected for northern and eastern NM
thru Sunday morning. Locally higher amounts up to 1.50" may occur
over northeast NM during this period. Meanwhile, dry, warm, and
breezy conditions will continue over southern and western areas
where marginally critical fire weather is possible, especially in
the west central highlands today and Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  72  45  70  40 /  10  20  40   5
Dulce...........................  64  33  62  29 /  70  50  80  20
Cuba............................  65  40  64  36 /  40  30  70  20
Gallup..........................  70  34  68  33 /   0   0  10   0
El Morro........................  67  37  66  36 /   5   5  20   0
Grants..........................  72  37  69  32 /  10  10  30   0
Quemado.........................  71  37  69  36 /   0   0   5   0
Magdalena.......................  73  46  72  43 /   5  20  40   5
Datil...........................  70  40  69  38 /   0  10  20   0
Reserve.........................  75  36  74  32 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  80  48  78  48 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  56  33  55  30 /  80  60  90  30
Los Alamos......................  61  43  61  42 /  30  50  80  40
Pecos...........................  56  42  54  39 /  30  60  90  60
Cerro/Questa....................  53  38  54  39 /  70  50  90  40
Red River.......................  46  31  49  29 /  80  60  90  50
Angel Fire......................  47  32  49  27 /  60  60  90  50
Taos............................  59  36  60  32 /  50  50  80  40
Mora............................  51  37  51  32 /  50  60  90  60
Espanola........................  70  43  68  42 /  30  40  70  40
Santa Fe........................  62  43  61  42 /  30  60  70  50
Santa Fe Airport................  65  45  64  41 /  20  50  70  40
Albuquerque Foothills...........  73  49  71  48 /  20  40  70  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  75  51  74  46 /  20  30  60  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  77  51  76  46 /  20  30  60  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  74  50  73  48 /  20  30  60  20
Belen...........................  79  48  78  43 /  10  30  50  20
Bernalillo......................  74  51  74  46 /  20  40  70  30
Bosque Farms....................  77  48  77  43 /  20  30  60  20
Corrales........................  75  50  74  47 /  20  30  60  20
Los Lunas.......................  78  49  77  44 /  20  30  50  20
Placitas........................  68  47  69  46 /  20  50  70  30
Rio Rancho......................  74  49  73  47 /  20  30  60  20
Socorro.........................  82  51  82  48 /   5  30  30  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  61  43  61  43 /  30  50  80  40
Tijeras.........................  66  46  66  43 /  30  50  70  40
Edgewood........................  63  44  63  39 /  20  50  80  40
Moriarty/Estancia...............  65  43  64  36 /  20  50  80  40
Clines Corners..................  57  41  57  38 /  20  60  80  50
Mountainair.....................  68  44  67  40 /  20  50  60  30
Gran Quivira....................  69  44  69  40 /  10  50  60  30
Carrizozo.......................  77  51  76  48 /  20  40  60  20
Ruidoso.........................  65  46  65  43 /  20  50  70  20
Capulin.........................  52  39  51  39 /  50  40  80  50
Raton...........................  54  40  54  38 /  50  50  80  40
Springer........................  56  42  54  38 /  40  50  80  50
Las Vegas.......................  54  40  52  39 /  40  60  90  60
Clayton.........................  62  46  59  45 /  20  30  70  60
Roy.............................  58  44  53  44 /  30  60  80  70
Conchas.........................  67  50  60  49 /  20  60  80  80
Santa Rosa......................  64  48  58  47 /  20  50  80  70
Tucumcari.......................  68  48  62  49 /  20  40  80  80
Clovis..........................  70  50  61  51 /  20  40  90  70
Portales........................  71  50  62  51 /  10  50  80  70
Fort Sumner.....................  69  50  61  50 /  20  50  80  70
Roswell.........................  75  58  68  58 /  10  60  60  40
Picacho.........................  67  50  64  48 /  20  50  60  30
Elk.............................  68  48  67  45 /  10  60  60  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...42