601
FXUS65 KABQ 180613 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1213 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 257 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Dry, breezy to windy and hot weather remains one more
day Tuesday. A significant change to the weather pattern arrives
Wednesday with an influx of cooler and wetter weather invading
eastern New Mexico. This cooler and wetter airmass will spread
through central and western New Mexico by Thursday morning. While
precipitation chances will shoot upward all areas, the potential
for more convectively driven thunderstorms will exist more over
central and western New Mexico Thursday and Friday afternoons.
Lighter and more steady rainfall is looking more likely through
the highlands and eastern plains of New Mexico. Overall, this
will increase the risk of burn scar flash flooding. A strong east
canyon wind in eastern Albuquerque and Santa Fe also looks likely
Wednesday night through Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 257 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024

The latest water vapor imagery shows an impressive dry intrusion
spreading across much of AZ and NM ahead of a broad upper level
trough entering the Great Basin. Deep mixing in response to very
strong afternoon heating with large surface dewpoint depressions is
tapping stronger winds aloft with widespread surface wind gusts of
30 to 40 mph at 2pm. These unseasonably strong winds with very low
humidity will continue to generate dangerous fire weather conditions
for parts of the region thru sunset. A new fire start in extreme
northeast Otero County west of Ruidoso is producing a well-defined
smoke plume already. This will become impactful to air quality as we
progress thru tonight and Tuesday. Elsewhere, just enough low level
moisture with backing wind profiles across extreme far eastern NM
may allow for a couple storms to fire up after 4pm near the TX/NM
border. This activity will move quickly east away from the area but
some of the strongest cells may produce hail and damaging winds.
Otherwise, the remainder of this evening into the overnight will
feature decreasing winds with slowly falling temps thru midnight.

By Tuesday, the upper level trough axis will still be west of the
area but with slightly higher H5 pressure heights over NM. Southwest
winds will trend lighter but still breezy across eastern NM and the
higher terrain. Temps will be very hot once again across eastern NM
with another Heat Advisory possible for Roswell. Very dry air will
also remain in place over the region with min humidity values below
10% in many areas. The dryline is expected to be farther east into
west TX so there are no precip chances even for far eastern NM.

A backdoor cold front will enter far northeast NM Tuesday evening
while low level return flow deepens across southeast NM. Low clouds
are expected to develop westward after midnight, especially across
northeast NM and along the TX/NM border. There is an abundance of
moisture, shear, instability, and lift along the boundary so a few
strong storms cannot be ruled out Tuesday night over northeast NM if
the capping inversion is broken.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 257 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024

A significant change to the weather pattern arrives Wednesday in
the form of a potent backdoor cold front invading northeastern NM
and meeting up with abundant moisture from the Gulf of Mexico
advecting westward into eastern NM. Temperatures fall 10F to 15F
from Tuesday`s forecast across eastern NM as a result. Upslope
flow to the central mountain chain combined with the influx of
moisture will aid in the initiation of afternoon storms there that
track back east over the eastern plains late Wednesday and
Wednesday evening. Thunderstorm outflow will aid the westerly
surge of this cooler and wetter airmass through the gaps of the
central mountain chain Wednesday night, reaching the Continental
Divide and AZ border Thursday morning. Strong east canyon winds at
Santa Fe and Albuquerque look very likely, with sustained winds
above 30 mph gusting above 50 mph. These strong east canyon winds
look to continue well into the day Thursday for Albuquerque and
Santa Fe, if not through the entire day.

Thursday and Friday see the highest moisture content arrive into the
Rio Grande Valley and through western NM. Dewpoints rise into the
50s at Albuquerque and look to flirt with 60F by next weekend,
matching well with the modeled increase in PWATs to 1.00" to 1.25"
during this timeframe. Scattered to numerous showers are favored
each afternoon across much of the forecast area as a result, at
minimum. The main question in the forecast is the stability along
and east of the central mountain chain, due to the likelihood of a
persistent and stubborn low-level stratus cloud deck and cooler
boundary layer temperatures. The combination of near zero SBCAPE
across the eastern plains and abundant dry air above 550mb will
severely limit the potential for vertical development of any
convection across the eastern half of the state. Much of the
precipitation potential here will thus be in a light stratiform rain
event as a result. Higher temperatures further west starting in the
Rio Grande Valley and to AZ will steadily increase the potential for
more convectively driven thunderstorms both Thursday and Friday
afternoons. The overall increase of precipitation chances brings an
increased risk of burn scar flash flooding. However there is some
limitation here, especially for the Hermit`s Peak/Calf Canyon burn
area, due to the limited instability.

The H5 high strengthens this weekend with the centroid favoring a
position over west-central to southwestern NM. Low-level moisture
will linger across the forecast area with temperatures trending
warm. This will favor a fairly standard summer time thunderstorm
pattern Saturday and Sunday with storms initiating over the high
terrain and then moving over surrounding lower elevations late day
and evening. The slowest storm motions will favor the Gila NF of
Catron County where the centroid of the H5 looks to be. More
easterly to southeasterly storm motions will be present elsewhere
over northern and southeastern NM.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1157 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Although it is trending weaker, the flow aloft is forecast to
remain strong enough for low level wind shear for the remainder of
tonight and into the early morning along the east slopes of the
Sangre de Cristo Mountains, including KRTN and KLVS. Surface winds
will trend weaker as well on Tuesday with the strongest gusts
reaching around 35 KT over northeast areas in the afternoon. Along
the east slopes of the central mountain chain Tuesday afternoon,
high temperatures as much as 7 degrees above 1991-2020 averages
will make density altitude an important consideration for aviation
operations. Smoke from multiple well-developed wildfires in the
Sacramento Mountains is forecast to track northeastward on
Tuesday. Initially smoke will be trapped below a temperature
inversion and follow the morning drainage wind through river
valleys exiting the mountains to the northeast and east, probably
impacting ceiling and visibility at times at KSRR. From late
morning through afternoon, wildfire smoke will become more
elevated, but the close proximity of KSRR to the wildfires will
most likely result in continued smoke impacts on the flight
category there. Check out the latest Vertically Inegrated Smoke
Loop (forecast of all the smoke in a vertical column, including
smoke high in the atmosphere) from the HRRR model here:
https://shorturl.at/mDpuc.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 257 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NM THIS
AFTERNOON...

Southwest winds will continue to strengthen thru late afternoon
across the region with gusts of 30 to 40 mph likely in many areas
before sunset. Meanwhile, very unstable conditions with single digit
humidity in parts of central and western NM will keep Red Flag
conditions going thru mid evening. Winds will trend lighter by
midnight but humidity recovery will be poor in many areas. Single
digit humidity is expected again Tuesday but winds will be lighter
than today. Conditions will still be breezy enough for elevated to
locally critical fire weather over northeast NM. Confidence was not
high enough to support another Red Flag given lower ERC values and
higher soil moisture. However, if winds trend stronger with model
guidance tonight then a Red Flag may be needed. A moist backdoor
cold front then slides into eastern NM Tuesday night with much
higher moisture for Wednesday. This moisture will set the stage for
increasing chances of showers and storms through the end of the week
across central and eastern NM. Some of this activity may be locally
heavy with burn scar flash flooding possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  51  86  52  93 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  48  83  47  89 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  50  84  50  87 /   0   0   0   5
Gallup..........................  45  85  45  91 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  49  81  49  87 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  45  86  46  91 /   0   0   0   5
Quemado.........................  50  85  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  59  89  58  89 /   0   0   0  10
Datil...........................  51  85  52  87 /   0   0   0   5
Reserve.........................  43  88  44  92 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  59  92  59  97 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  43  77  44  82 /   0   0   0  10
Los Alamos......................  63  84  61  84 /   0   0   0  20
Pecos...........................  51  84  51  81 /   0   0   0  30
Cerro/Questa....................  50  79  48  80 /   0   0   0  30
Red River.......................  45  71  43  72 /   0   0   0  40
Angel Fire......................  38  76  37  74 /   0   0   0  40
Taos............................  48  84  48  85 /   0   0   0  20
Mora............................  49  83  48  77 /   0   0   0  50
Espanola........................  57  91  57  92 /   0   0   0  10
Santa Fe........................  59  84  58  85 /   0   0   0  20
Santa Fe Airport................  57  89  56  89 /   0   0   0  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  65  93  64  93 /   0   0   0  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  64  94  63  95 /   0   0   0  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  62  95  62  97 /   0   0   0   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  62  93  62  95 /   0   0   0  10
Belen...........................  58  96  58  97 /   0   0   0  10
Bernalillo......................  63  93  62  95 /   0   0   0  10
Bosque Farms....................  55  95  56  97 /   0   0   0  10
Corrales........................  58  94  58  96 /   0   0   0  10
Los Lunas.......................  54  95  55  97 /   0   0   0  10
Placitas........................  65  91  64  90 /   0   0   0  10
Rio Rancho......................  63  93  62  95 /   0   0   0  10
Socorro.........................  63  98  63 100 /   0   0   0  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  62  85  59  86 /   0   0   0  20
Tijeras.........................  60  90  60  89 /   0   0   0  20
Edgewood........................  61  89  59  87 /   0   0   0  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  53  89  52  87 /   0   0   0  20
Clines Corners..................  53  84  53  80 /   0   0   0  30
Mountainair.....................  59  88  58  88 /   0   0   0  20
Gran Quivira....................  54  89  55  90 /   0   0   0  20
Carrizozo.......................  64  92  63  94 /   0   0   0  20
Ruidoso.........................  58  86  57  83 /   0   0   0  40
Capulin.........................  58  86  55  71 /   0   0  10  50
Raton...........................  56  89  54  77 /   0   0   5  40
Springer........................  58  92  56  80 /   0   0   5  50
Las Vegas.......................  53  84  52  77 /   0   0   0  40
Clayton.........................  63  94  59  78 /   5   0  10  40
Roy.............................  64  89  61  79 /   0   0  10  50
Conchas.........................  68  97  65  87 /   0   0   5  40
Santa Rosa......................  66  94  64  86 /   0   0   0  40
Tucumcari.......................  68  97  66  87 /   5   0   5  30
Clovis..........................  65  94  64  85 /   5   5   5  20
Portales........................  67  97  66  86 /   5   5   5  20
Fort Sumner.....................  68  98  68  89 /   0   0   0  20
Roswell.........................  70 105  69  94 /   0   0   0  20
Picacho.........................  61  97  61  87 /   0   0   0  40
Elk.............................  59  94  58  84 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...44