Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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695 FXUS65 KABQ 180928 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 328 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 247 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Hot, dry and breezy conditions will prevail across most of the region today with areas of smoke from nearby wildfires. A few strong to potentially severe storms are possible near the TX border late this afternoon through this evening. A backdoor front will move west across the area Wednesday through Thursday, bringing much needed moisture and chances for showers and storms. The front will create gusty east canyon winds into the Rio Grande Valley from late Wednesday afternoon through the overnight hours. Good chances for showers and storms will continue Thursday through Saturday, with an increasing threat for burn scar flooding. After a brief break from the heat, temperatures will return to normal by Sunday and trend above normal early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 247 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024 The flow aloft is weakening compared to yesterday, and the lee-side surface trough has also weakened, so winds will trend weaker today. However, it will still be gusty, especially along and east of the central mountain chain. The strongest winds will be found east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains this afternoon, where gusts will probably reach around 40 mph. Smoke from wildfires in the Sacramento Mountains will travel northeastward today with impacts potentially as far northeast as Clovis and Portales by this evening, but most likely from northern Chaves and southern De Baca Counties southwestward. Will issue a Heat Advisory for the Roswell area today where the high temperature is again forecast to reach 105 degrees. The dryline looks to become active today. High resolution models depict isolated showers and thunderstorms developing over the far eastern plains this afternoon and evening from Quay County southward. With CAPE exceeding 2000 j/kg and bulk shear in the 20-30 kt range, a few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible. Storm motion should be toward the northeast around 30 mph. Late this evening, as cells over southeast areas are tapering off, scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop along a gusty and moist backdoor cold front diving into the northeast plains. With bulk shear in the 30-45 kt range over the northeast corner, strong to severe storms will again be possible during the late night hours. The moist backdoor front is forecast to surge westward to the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo, Sandia, and Manzano Mountains on Wednesday morning, pushing through gaps in the central mountain chain with a gusty east wind below canyons opening into the central valley around Albuquerque and Santa Fe. Meanwhile, southeast areas will feel a surge in Gulf moisture as a trough over the west coast and tropical system moving westward over south TX and Big Bend work in consort to strengthen southeasterly return flow into NM. As a result of all this moisture, and perturbations in southwest flow aloft, scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast along and east of the central mountain chain on Wednesday, with some spottier and mainly dry/gusty cells as far west as Mount Taylor and the Jemez Mountains. Coverage may become numerous over northeast areas by late afternoon with storm motion mainly toward the north and northeast around 20-30 mph. Shear and instability again look favorable for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon, mainly along the east slopes of the central mountain chain, and eastward across east central areas. High temperatures on Wednesday should fall a few to around 17 degrees across the eastern plains from today`s readings, while rising a few to several degrees across western areas. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 247 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Moisture advection will ramp-up Wednesday night behind the backdoor front and Gulf moisture will be drawn northwest across the area due to troughing along the west coast. Cooling from convection east of the central mountain chain late Wednesday will increase the pressure gradient after a hot day across western NM, resulting in a strong and gusty east canyon wind into the RGV and likely requiring a Wind Advisory. The 00z model solutions all show qpf bullseyes overnight Wednesday across eastern NM, with the NAM furthest west from the east slopes of the Sandias north across the east slopes of the Sangre De Cristos. A Flash Flood Watch may be needed for area burn scars for Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night and will look for better model consensus on placement of qpf bullseyes before issuing. Thursday is looking too stable for deep convection, with ridging in the mid levels of the atmosphere as an easterly wave moves south of the area. Instability will be on the uptrend thereafter, with good chances for showers and storms favoring northwest and north central NM Friday as the west coast trough moves east across the Intermountain West. High temperatures will be below normal on Thu/Fri, especially across eastern NM, due to cloud cover and rain-cooling. An upper level high will strengthen over the region and be centered along the AZ/NM border from Saturday through Monday, bringing increasing temperatures that will rise above normal areawide by Monday. Daytime heating triggered storms are forecast from Saturday through Monday, favoring the mountains and bringing a threat for burn scar flooding. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1157 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Although it is trending weaker, the flow aloft is forecast to remain strong enough for low level wind shear for the remainder of tonight and into the early morning along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, including KRTN and KLVS. Surface winds will trend weaker as well on Tuesday with the strongest gusts reaching around 35 KT over northeast areas in the afternoon. Along the east slopes of the central mountain chain Tuesday afternoon, high temperatures as much as 7 degrees above 1991-2020 averages will make density altitude an important consideration for aviation operations. Smoke from multiple well-developed wildfires in the Sacramento Mountains is forecast to track northeastward on Tuesday. Initially smoke will be trapped below a temperature inversion and follow the morning drainage wind through river valleys exiting the mountains to the northeast and east, probably impacting ceiling and visibility at times at KSRR. From late morning through afternoon, wildfire smoke will become more elevated, but the close proximity of KSRR to the wildfires will most likely result in continued smoke impacts on the flight category there. Check out the latest Vertically Inegrated Smoke Loop (forecast of all the smoke in a vertical column, including smoke high in the atmosphere) from the HRRR model here: https://shorturl.at/mDpuc. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 247 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Isolated dryline thunderstorms are forecast over the far eastern plains this afternoon and evening, then storms will develop over far northeast areas with a gusty and moist backdoor front tonight. The backdoor front will push through gaps in the central mountain chain with a moderately gusty east canyon wind from Albuquerque to Santa Fe on Wednesday, the a fairly strong east wind in the same area Wednesday night. A summertime thunderstorm pattern will develop Wednesday through the end of the week as a mid level high pressure system over the east central US, a tropical system passing to the south of the fire weather forecast area, and a trough on the west coast all work in consort to draw Gulf moisture over New Mexico. The richest moisture will be found over eastern areas Wednesday, but it will shift gradually westward over central areas Thursday and Friday, then moderate on Saturday. The western fringe of the moisture will probably see dry and gusty thunderstorms each day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 85 55 93 65 / 0 0 0 10 Dulce........................... 83 44 89 53 / 0 0 0 30 Cuba............................ 83 52 86 57 / 0 0 5 30 Gallup.......................... 85 45 91 56 / 0 0 0 5 El Morro........................ 81 49 88 60 / 0 0 0 10 Grants.......................... 87 47 91 60 / 0 0 0 20 Quemado......................... 85 51 89 60 / 0 0 0 20 Magdalena....................... 89 59 89 63 / 0 0 5 30 Datil........................... 85 54 87 61 / 0 0 5 20 Reserve......................... 89 46 93 52 / 0 0 0 20 Glenwood........................ 92 61 97 65 / 0 0 0 10 Chama........................... 78 45 83 51 / 0 0 5 30 Los Alamos...................... 83 60 85 61 / 0 0 20 40 Pecos........................... 84 55 82 55 / 0 0 30 70 Cerro/Questa.................... 78 45 80 52 / 0 0 20 40 Red River....................... 72 41 72 46 / 0 5 30 50 Angel Fire...................... 76 37 75 45 / 0 5 30 70 Taos............................ 85 49 85 55 / 0 0 20 40 Mora............................ 84 48 79 50 / 0 5 40 70 Espanola........................ 91 56 92 61 / 0 0 10 40 Santa Fe........................ 84 59 86 62 / 0 0 20 50 Santa Fe Airport................ 88 57 89 63 / 0 0 10 40 Albuquerque Foothills........... 91 64 93 68 / 0 0 10 40 Albuquerque Heights............. 94 63 95 67 / 0 0 5 30 Albuquerque Valley.............. 96 62 97 66 / 0 0 5 30 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 93 64 95 67 / 0 0 5 30 Belen........................... 97 59 98 64 / 0 0 5 30 Bernalillo...................... 94 63 96 67 / 0 0 10 30 Bosque Farms.................... 96 58 97 62 / 0 0 5 30 Corrales........................ 94 63 96 65 / 0 0 10 30 Los Lunas....................... 96 59 97 63 / 0 0 5 30 Placitas........................ 89 64 91 67 / 0 0 10 40 Rio Rancho...................... 93 64 95 68 / 0 0 10 30 Socorro......................... 99 62 100 68 / 0 0 5 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 84 59 86 61 / 0 0 20 40 Tijeras......................... 87 59 89 63 / 0 0 20 40 Edgewood........................ 88 55 89 61 / 0 0 20 40 Moriarty/Estancia............... 89 52 89 56 / 0 0 20 40 Clines Corners.................. 85 54 82 55 / 0 0 30 40 Mountainair..................... 88 56 89 59 / 0 0 20 40 Gran Quivira.................... 89 56 90 57 / 0 0 20 30 Carrizozo....................... 93 64 94 63 / 0 0 20 20 Ruidoso......................... 86 58 85 56 / 0 0 40 60 Capulin......................... 86 51 73 55 / 5 30 50 50 Raton........................... 90 52 78 55 / 5 20 40 60 Springer........................ 92 54 81 57 / 0 10 50 60 Las Vegas....................... 86 52 79 55 / 0 5 40 70 Clayton......................... 94 60 78 59 / 5 30 50 40 Roy............................. 90 58 80 58 / 0 20 50 50 Conchas......................... 98 65 88 62 / 0 10 40 50 Santa Rosa...................... 95 63 85 62 / 0 5 40 50 Tucumcari....................... 98 67 88 62 / 20 10 30 40 Clovis.......................... 96 67 88 63 / 20 20 20 30 Portales........................ 98 67 88 63 / 20 20 20 30 Fort Sumner..................... 99 68 90 64 / 5 0 30 40 Roswell......................... 105 72 96 68 / 5 5 20 40 Picacho......................... 98 61 89 61 / 0 0 40 50 Elk............................. 95 57 89 57 / 0 0 40 30 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ238. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...44