Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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649 FXUS65 KABQ 200947 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 347 AM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 320 AM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Modified moisture from the Gulf of Mexico has been seeping into New Mexico, and as it spreads farther west it will act as a moderator to the temperatures with daytime highs running a few degrees cooler than yesterday and several degrees below normal. In addition, more shower and thunderstorm activity will spread farther west, and a few strong to severe storms will be possible in northwestern parts of New Mexico where large hail and damaging winds may accompany. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast for Friday with locally heavy rainfall possible. Storms will not be quite as numerous this weekend with the best chances for rain expected over west central areas of New Mexico and temperatures warming back to normal. Fewer storms and warmer temperatures can be expected into next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 320 AM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024 A deepening upper level trough on the west coast, a broad upper high over the east central US, and a tropical system passing westward over northern Mexico have all worked in consort to bring deep Gulf moisture over the forecast area. Today, precipitable water values from 125-175% of normal are expected, except over 200% of normal from Gallup to Farmington. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast today and tonight. Along and west of the central mountain chain, bulk shear values from 20-35 knots will be conducive for isolated severe thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and evening, especially from around Gallup north and northeastward to the Four Corners and Farmington area, where instability will be greater and a shortwave trough is forecast to cross in southwest flow aloft this afternoon. Will issue another Flash Flood Watch for the south central mountains this afternoon and tonight, where thunderstorms will again be capable of producing a quick quarter inch of rain. This is enough to produce flash flooding on new burn scars, and the antecedent moisture is definitely in place after 1 to over 3 inches of rain in the Ruidoso area on Wednesday. Late this afternoon and evening, the gap wind is again forecast to become fairly strong in the Albuquerque area, where gusts around 50 mph are again expected. On Friday, a stronger shortwave trough will eject northeastward from the west coast across the central Rockies, drawing even better moisture northward over NM in the process. PWATs are forecast to climb from 150 to over 200% of normal with the highest values along and west of the central mountain chain. The greatest instability and shear will be found along the continental divide and over north central areas, where some strong to severe storms will be possible along with locally heavy rainfall. With the unseasonably rich moisture in place and all the convection, high temperatures today and Friday will vary from near normal along the western border to as much as 16 degrees below normal further east. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 320 AM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024 The upper high will stretch and elongate more over the southern states Friday night into Saturday. This will lead to a reduction in wind speeds aloft while also limiting synoptic perturbations into NM, but it will also redistribute the moisture as well, generally pushing the deeper PWATs westward. This looks to concentrate higher moisture over west central to southwestern zones of NM while some drying occurs in northern zones. Also, a more garden variety of airmass thunderstorms would be expected Saturday afternoon with more separation between cells that could keep temperatures warming closer to late June averages. The monsoon high will then contract and center itself more directly over NM into Sunday and Monday. Blended guidance seems to keep the southwestern mountains favored each day, but essentially isolated to scattered storms are expected to initiate from there and over the central mountain chain. While the footprints of rain will be reducing daily, much more sluggish storm motion would be expected with a threat for locally heavy downpours. This trend continues into the middle of next week with the high pacing on top of NM, temperatures rising slightly above average and moisture getting recycled daily for isolated to scattered storms, generally over the climatologically favored initiation points. A surface wind shift could bring some additional moisture to the northeastern zones Tuesday and Wednesday before the monsoon high weakens and becomes less defined over NM on Thursday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1149 PM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Moisture rich easterly and southeasterly upslope flow will produce widespread low clouds, and probably some patchy fog, with MVFR and IFR conditions east of the central mountain chain for the remainder of tonight; and in the Santa Fe area by sunrise. Models depict low clouds continuing to impact eastern areas through most of the morning, then into the afternoon across the southeast while flight categories across the northeast improve. Meanwhile, the strong gap wind below canyons opening into the central valley from the east will gradually weaken during the remainder of the night with the risk of 35 KT winds at the Sunport diminishing near or shortly after 09Z. In addition, scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast to continue for the remainder of tonight and into Thursday morning mainly east of the continental divide. Thursday afternoon and evening, high resolution models are now shifting the favored area for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over west central and northwest areas, with scattered to isolated activity central and east. Some storms along and west of the continental divide will be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds, including the KGUP and KFMN areas. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 320 AM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Deep Gulf moisture will remain over the forecast area with widespread wetting precipitation and a threat of locally heavy rainfall again today and Friday. Breezy to windy conditions will continue today over western and northern areas, while the strong gap wind continues in the central valley and strengthens for a time this evening. Peak gusts should reach around 50 mph in Albuquerque below Tijeras Canyon this evening. After widespread below normal temperatures today and Friday, a mid level high pressure system over the eastern US will migrate westward over NM this weekend through the first half of next week warming temperatures above normal. A monsoon-like weather pattern will then continue with daily rounds of scattered thunderstorms favoring central and western areas. Rain amounts are forecast to decrease significantly starting Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 91 61 87 62 / 70 70 80 80 Dulce........................... 83 48 79 50 / 60 70 80 80 Cuba............................ 81 55 79 54 / 20 60 80 60 Gallup.......................... 90 52 88 54 / 60 80 60 70 El Morro........................ 84 57 82 54 / 30 50 70 70 Grants.......................... 87 54 84 55 / 20 50 80 70 Quemado......................... 86 59 84 56 / 20 20 70 60 Magdalena....................... 82 60 79 61 / 20 60 80 40 Datil........................... 80 58 78 57 / 20 50 80 50 Reserve......................... 91 55 86 53 / 10 20 60 50 Glenwood........................ 94 67 89 66 / 10 20 60 40 Chama........................... 78 46 74 48 / 70 60 80 70 Los Alamos...................... 78 59 75 59 / 40 70 90 60 Pecos........................... 74 56 73 56 / 50 70 90 60 Cerro/Questa.................... 77 47 75 51 / 50 60 80 50 Red River....................... 70 44 67 45 / 60 70 80 50 Angel Fire...................... 70 43 71 47 / 50 40 80 50 Taos............................ 80 53 77 53 / 30 60 70 50 Mora............................ 73 50 72 51 / 50 60 90 50 Espanola........................ 86 61 83 59 / 20 50 90 50 Santa Fe........................ 78 59 77 60 / 20 70 90 60 Santa Fe Airport................ 82 60 81 58 / 20 70 90 50 Albuquerque Foothills........... 87 64 83 66 / 40 60 70 50 Albuquerque Heights............. 89 64 84 67 / 30 50 50 40 Albuquerque Valley.............. 91 64 86 60 / 30 50 50 40 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 89 66 84 65 / 20 50 50 50 Belen........................... 91 63 88 63 / 20 40 50 40 Bernalillo...................... 89 64 85 64 / 20 50 50 40 Bosque Farms.................... 91 61 87 59 / 30 40 50 40 Corrales........................ 90 65 85 63 / 20 50 50 50 Los Lunas....................... 91 63 87 61 / 20 40 50 40 Placitas........................ 85 63 83 65 / 30 60 60 50 Rio Rancho...................... 89 65 84 65 / 20 50 50 50 Socorro......................... 92 67 88 67 / 20 50 50 30 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 79 58 77 60 / 30 60 80 40 Tijeras......................... 83 60 79 63 / 40 60 70 40 Edgewood........................ 81 58 78 60 / 30 50 90 40 Moriarty/Estancia............... 82 56 79 58 / 20 50 90 40 Clines Corners.................. 74 55 74 55 / 30 60 90 40 Mountainair..................... 82 57 79 60 / 40 40 80 40 Gran Quivira.................... 82 57 79 58 / 40 50 80 30 Carrizozo....................... 83 63 81 63 / 40 60 70 30 Ruidoso......................... 72 58 73 53 / 60 80 90 30 Capulin......................... 75 55 77 55 / 30 30 50 10 Raton........................... 78 56 80 57 / 30 30 50 20 Springer........................ 80 57 81 59 / 50 40 70 20 Las Vegas....................... 72 56 72 56 / 60 70 90 40 Clayton......................... 81 61 82 64 / 20 20 30 5 Roy............................. 77 59 77 61 / 50 60 70 20 Conchas......................... 83 63 84 66 / 40 50 60 20 Santa Rosa...................... 77 61 80 63 / 50 60 70 20 Tucumcari....................... 83 63 84 66 / 30 40 40 10 Clovis.......................... 79 64 84 64 / 60 40 30 10 Portales........................ 79 65 85 64 / 50 50 30 10 Fort Sumner..................... 80 64 83 65 / 40 50 40 20 Roswell......................... 83 69 87 69 / 70 70 40 10 Picacho......................... 75 61 80 60 / 80 80 80 20 Elk............................. 73 58 77 56 / 80 80 80 20 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 6 AM MDT early this morning for NMZ204-211- 218-225. High Wind Warning until 6 AM MDT early this morning for NMZ219. Wind Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM MDT this evening for NMZ219. Flood Watch until 6 AM MDT early this morning for NMZ214-215-226- 229. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...44