Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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075 FXUS65 KABQ 282346 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 546 PM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 145 PM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Today has hot temperatures and a relative minimum in the rain showers and thunderstorms activity. Tonight a backdoor cold front arrives increasing storm chances once again in northern NM for Saturday. Heavy rainfall may lead to more flash flooding, especially around wildfire burn scars. Sunday and Monday will be active as well with more locally heavy rainfall over northern and western NM. The chance for storms will continue Tuesday and Wednesday in central and eastern NM followed by a possible drier pattern by the end of the week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 145 PM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024 A notable downtick in convection today compared to the last many days as the westerlies have brought a drier and more stable airmass over the area. Strong/erratic wind gusts and occasional lightning are still possible with isolated convection through this evening, but the burn scar flood threat is very low through Saturday morning. A backdoor front is still on track to move into northeast NM Saturday and then progress southwest into the RGV Saturday night with help from convective cold pooling. This will all be happening while the upper high to the east extends a ridge axis westward over NM, replacing the westerlies currently present with fairly light steering flow. The setup is looking favorable for slow moving and heavy rain producing storms along the central mountain chain late Saturday, especially along the east slopes of the Sangre De Cristos and adjacent eastern highlands where the NAM is cranking out some seriously impressive qpf thanks to the moist easterly upslope flow. The latest GFS is similar with an impressive qpf bullseye in northern Colfax County going into Saturday evening. Will go ahead and issue a Flash Flood Watch for Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for burn scars near Ruidoso/Alto, the HPCC burn scar, the northeast and far northeast highlands and the Johnson/Bartlett Mesas. The backdoor front is forecast to create a gusty east canyon/gap wind into the RGV Saturday night that will be strongest from Santa Fe south through Albuquerque. Gusts to 45-50mph are possible through and below Tijeras Canyon into Albuquerque. Convection may persist all the way to sunrise Sunday morning along/near the Sangre De Cristos, so the watch may need to be extended beyond midnight. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 145 PM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024 NM has a high chance of continued active weather during next week as moisture will sit across the region. The pattern that will draw the moisture across NM is a Bermuda Azores high that will have its western edge of its center sitting over eastern NM. This will bring in SW to SE that will draw in moisture from the Gulf of California and Gulf of Mexico. This moisture for Sunday and Monday will pass across mainly western and central NM causing rain showers and thunderstorms. The amount of moisture remains on the high end being in the top 10% of moisture events for this time of year. So these storms would be capable of causing copious amounts of rainfall leading to the risk of flash flooding. The stability of the high pressure in eastern NM may be able to suppress some storm formation so it has a lesser chance of seeing rain showers and thunderstorms. Tuesday to Wednesday the high pressure begins to flatten out as a trough over the NW portions of CONUS deepens and passes eastward. This trough if it deepens enough may even push into the northern portions of NM supplanting the high pressure. The major impact from the shift in the pattern is the ribbon of moisture will be pushed to the south and east putting it over the central, eastern, and southern portions of NM. So these area would see continued rain showers and thunderstorms while NW NM becomes drier. The ribbon of moisture will still be in the top 10% of moisture events for this time of year which will allow for heavy rainfall and associated flood risks. For Thursday and Friday the high pressure over southern CONUS should reorganize with a new high pressure center forming over central California and western Nevada. This would put NM on the eastern edge of this high pressure system bringing a more northerly wind to the state. These winds would help to push the moisture further out of NM confining rain showers and thunderstorms to the southern and eastern portions of the state. The amount of moisture will also decrease some as drier air works it way in so these storms should be weaker and produce less rainfall. This would make Thursday a relative minimum in the rain showers and thunderstorms for next week. Friday should see the center of the high build and push to the east centering across NV. This would induce a more E to SE winds that will allow some moisture to work it way back across NM. This would lead to more rain showers and thunderstorms from Central NM to southern and easter NM while NW NM stay on the dry side. The moisture for Friday seems to be more along the lines of a typical monsoon and not at the levels seen earlier in the week. So the end of next week may be the end of the abnormally wet weather and a return to the more typical monsoon moisture. However the pattern for later next week is uncertain so it will be subject to change. While the moisture sits across NM the increased clouds along with rain showers and thunderstorms should keep temperatures cooler with valleys highs in the 80s to 90. While the moisture is less then the temperatures should be higher in the 90s to 100s for the valleys. SH && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 539 PM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Shower and thunderstorm activity has been much more subdued today with only isolated and sparse storms observed over mainly west central to southwestern New Mexico. These should weaken and die shortly after sunset this evening. A backdoor cold front will then enter the northeastern quadrant of New Mexico late tonight into Saturday morning, bringing a northeasterly wind shift. This front will be moist with upslope flow also developing on the east faces of the central mountain chain, so a notable increase in storms is forecast for Saturday afternoon. Slow moving storms will be capable of heavy downpours, small hail, gusty downburst winds and brief reductions to ceilings and visibility. Saturday afternoon, expanding and lasting well into Saturday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 145 PM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024 No critical fire weather conditions are forecast through at least the next seven days with daily rounds of wetting storms and good to excellent humidity recovery. Burn scar flooding will be possible each day, but more likely late Saturday when a backdoor front will help to boost moisture. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 62 94 69 91 / 5 5 10 60 Dulce........................... 50 89 56 84 / 5 10 20 70 Cuba............................ 56 88 60 84 / 5 20 40 70 Gallup.......................... 55 89 60 89 / 10 10 10 60 El Morro........................ 56 85 60 84 / 10 40 30 70 Grants.......................... 56 89 60 87 / 10 40 30 70 Quemado......................... 57 86 61 87 / 10 50 30 70 Magdalena....................... 63 90 65 87 / 10 40 50 40 Datil........................... 58 86 61 84 / 20 50 40 50 Reserve......................... 57 91 59 91 / 20 50 30 50 Glenwood........................ 67 96 69 95 / 10 40 40 40 Chama........................... 49 83 53 78 / 5 20 40 80 Los Alamos...................... 60 87 63 81 / 5 40 50 70 Pecos........................... 58 86 59 80 / 0 60 60 60 Cerro/Questa.................... 47 82 52 78 / 5 60 60 80 Red River....................... 47 73 50 71 / 5 60 60 80 Angel Fire...................... 47 77 50 74 / 0 70 60 70 Taos............................ 51 87 58 84 / 0 40 50 70 Mora............................ 57 81 54 78 / 0 70 60 60 Espanola........................ 60 94 64 89 / 0 30 50 60 Santa Fe........................ 60 88 64 82 / 0 40 60 60 Santa Fe Airport................ 61 91 65 86 / 5 30 50 60 Albuquerque Foothills........... 67 94 69 90 / 5 30 60 50 Albuquerque Heights............. 66 96 69 92 / 5 20 40 40 Albuquerque Valley.............. 67 98 69 94 / 5 20 40 40 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 67 96 70 92 / 5 20 40 40 Belen........................... 65 99 68 95 / 5 20 40 30 Bernalillo...................... 66 97 69 93 / 5 20 40 50 Bosque Farms.................... 63 99 66 94 / 5 20 40 40 Corrales........................ 66 97 68 94 / 5 20 40 50 Los Lunas....................... 64 99 66 94 / 5 20 40 40 Placitas........................ 65 93 68 88 / 5 20 50 50 Rio Rancho...................... 66 96 69 92 / 5 20 40 40 Socorro......................... 69 100 71 96 / 10 20 40 30 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 61 88 63 84 / 5 30 50 50 Tijeras......................... 63 90 65 87 / 5 30 50 50 Edgewood........................ 59 90 63 86 / 5 30 60 40 Moriarty/Estancia............... 57 91 60 87 / 5 30 60 40 Clines Corners.................. 57 86 58 80 / 0 30 60 40 Mountainair..................... 59 90 62 87 / 5 30 60 30 Gran Quivira.................... 59 91 61 87 / 5 30 50 30 Carrizozo....................... 69 95 67 91 / 10 30 40 20 Ruidoso......................... 62 86 59 82 / 10 60 40 30 Capulin......................... 57 80 58 82 / 10 70 70 50 Raton........................... 58 85 58 85 / 5 70 60 50 Springer........................ 59 88 60 87 / 5 70 70 50 Las Vegas....................... 58 83 57 79 / 0 60 70 50 Clayton......................... 65 87 63 88 / 10 30 60 30 Roy............................. 62 86 62 84 / 5 60 70 40 Conchas......................... 68 93 67 92 / 5 40 60 20 Santa Rosa...................... 66 92 66 88 / 0 30 60 20 Tucumcari....................... 67 96 67 95 / 0 30 60 10 Clovis.......................... 71 98 69 94 / 5 30 40 10 Portales........................ 70 98 71 94 / 5 20 40 10 Fort Sumner..................... 70 97 71 93 / 5 30 40 10 Roswell......................... 79 103 74 98 / 10 20 20 10 Picacho......................... 70 95 66 90 / 10 30 30 30 Elk............................. 66 92 61 89 / 10 40 20 30 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for NMZ214-215-226>229. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...52