Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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026 FXUS65 KABQ 242306 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 506 PM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 231 PM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Overall, quiet weather remains throughout the state through the week. A brief period of gusty east winds in Albuquerque may occur this evening, but will be unimpactful. Temperatures will continue to increase gradually through the week, with highs being regularly 5 to 10 degrees above average. Some daily high temperature records may be equaled or broken on Thursday and Friday. Isolated virga showers may occur over the northern mountains on Friday afternoon and evening. The weather will remain calm through the weekend, with temperatures lowering a degree or two but still remaining well above average. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 231 PM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024 A weak frontal boundary has pushed southward through northeastern NM this morning, associated with a synoptic troughing pattern over the central CONUS. With a 589dm H5 ridge over UT sliding southeastward toward the Four Corners area today, this frontal boundary is only expected to squeak through the gaps of the central mountain chain this evening and tonight. A brief period of gusty winds 15-25kts in the Tijeras Canyon near Albuquerque is likely, but expected to be unimpactful. This frontal boundary advances through the rest of eastern NM by Wednesday morning. Forecast high temperatures along and south of I-40 will fall several degrees relative to today`s readings, while most other areas will see warming temperatures thanks to the H5 ridge moving squarely over the Land of Enchantment. Forecast highs will be 5F to 10F above normal for late September with 60s/70s in the mountains and 80s to near 90F at lower elevation valley locations. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 231 PM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024 The 500mb high pressure will continue to drape over NM on Thursday, with the highest heights being 591-592dm. This puts the daily record of a 591dm 500mb height level at risk. With this hefty high pressure over us, temperatures will be mainly 5-10F above average for the entire CWA. Some daily high temperatures will enact a threat of nearing records, with a forecast high of 89F in Farmington breaking the daily record of 88F from 2001. Friday shows much of the same occurring, with Farmington forecast to tie a record of 88F and the rest of the state seeing above average temperatures. A difference from Thursday to Friday sees some mid-level moisture being forced into the state from a shortwave progressing along the ridge. With the addition of substantial daytime heating, inverted V soundings are likely across the northern mountains, signaling high based cumulus clouds with potential virga showers. These would be sources of isolated gusty winds through the afternoon and evening hours on Friday. PWAT forecasts show above average values (~0.7in), further supporting these virga showers. Aside from the northern mountains, the rest of the forecast area will continue to see tranquil weather throughout much of the extended period. While the sensible weather (or lack thereof) through the weekend changes little from day to day, the pattern into next week is subject to forecast uncertainty. The polar jet, currently well agreed upon to continue a zonal orientation across the northern Pacific, begins to diverge in deterministic models. The GFS produces an intense 500mb trough that digs into the northern Plains into Monday. The ECMWF, while showing signs of a trough on Monday, delays its amplification to Monday evening/Tuesday morning and keeps it mostly north of the US-Canada border. This has implications on a potential backdoor front through northeast NM on Monday evening, depending on how this trough influences a surface low pressure. Forecast confidence has been low on a feature like this manifesting. Confidence will increase once it is apparent how strong/fast the polar jet amplifies and once the models get a good handle on it. Ensembles are also having a hard time grasping the setup, which adds to uncertainty. With all that said, an idea of how this system sets up will become apparent through the latter part of this week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 505 PM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024 VFR conditions prevail. Backdoor front across eastern NM pushes through the gaps of central mountain chain overnight bringing a light east canyon wind to KABQ, with gusts around 20 to 25 kts possible until just before sunrise. Winds around to under 10 kts across the rest of the airspace under SKC through the end of the TAF period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 231 PM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024 There are no critical fire weather concerns through the forecast period. Warm and dry conditions will persist, influenced by high pressure over the state with generally weak to modest wind direction changes each day. Ventilation will be a mixed bag of poor to good across the forecast area. Scattered virga showers over the northern mountains producing erratic gusty winds Friday afternoon will be the one exception to the dry and calm forecast message. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 51 85 53 89 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 38 82 41 85 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 46 80 49 83 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 43 85 46 85 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 48 81 49 83 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 44 84 46 86 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 46 82 47 83 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 51 80 52 83 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 46 79 48 82 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 46 87 46 88 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 55 90 55 91 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 41 77 43 80 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 52 78 54 82 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 48 78 51 83 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 45 77 47 80 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 39 68 42 71 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 29 72 29 76 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 41 79 43 83 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 41 76 44 82 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 48 85 48 89 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 51 79 54 83 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 48 82 51 86 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 59 85 61 88 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 53 87 56 90 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 49 88 51 91 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 55 87 57 90 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 46 87 47 90 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 51 88 54 92 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 44 87 47 90 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 53 88 55 92 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 45 87 48 90 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 55 84 57 88 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 53 87 56 90 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 55 90 56 92 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 48 79 51 81 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 50 81 53 84 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 43 82 46 85 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 38 82 40 87 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 45 76 48 82 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 45 82 49 84 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 46 81 49 83 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 55 85 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 47 76 47 79 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 44 76 46 81 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 43 80 45 87 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 42 81 44 87 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 42 77 46 84 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 51 79 52 84 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 47 76 48 83 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 50 82 51 87 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 49 79 50 86 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 48 81 51 87 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 53 84 54 89 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 53 84 54 90 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 50 83 51 89 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 59 88 58 93 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 52 82 52 88 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 49 82 50 87 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....77 AVIATION...71