Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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502 FXUS65 KABQ 181731 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1131 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 247 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Hot, dry and breezy conditions will prevail across most of the region today with areas of smoke from nearby wildfires. A few strong to potentially severe storms are possible near the TX border late this afternoon through this evening. A backdoor front will move west across the area Wednesday through Thursday, bringing much needed moisture and chances for showers and storms. The front will create gusty east canyon winds into the Rio Grande Valley from late Wednesday afternoon through the overnight hours. Good chances for showers and storms will continue Thursday through Saturday, with an increasing threat for burn scar flooding. After a brief break from the heat, temperatures will return to normal by Sunday and trend above normal early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 247 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024 The flow aloft is weakening compared to yesterday, and the lee-side surface trough has also weakened, so winds will trend weaker today. However, it will still be gusty, especially along and east of the central mountain chain. The strongest winds will be found east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains this afternoon, where gusts will probably reach around 40 mph. Smoke from wildfires in the Sacramento Mountains will travel northeastward today with impacts potentially as far northeast as Clovis and Portales by this evening, but most likely from northern Chaves and southern De Baca Counties southwestward. Will issue a Heat Advisory for the Roswell area today where the high temperature is again forecast to reach 105 degrees. The dryline looks to become active today. High resolution models depict isolated showers and thunderstorms developing over the far eastern plains this afternoon and evening from Quay County southward. With CAPE exceeding 2000 j/kg and bulk shear in the 20-30 kt range, a few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible. Storm motion should be toward the northeast around 30 mph. Late this evening, as cells over southeast areas are tapering off, scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop along a gusty and moist backdoor cold front diving into the northeast plains. With bulk shear in the 30-45 kt range over the northeast corner, strong to severe storms will again be possible during the late night hours. The moist backdoor front is forecast to surge westward to the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo, Sandia, and Manzano Mountains on Wednesday morning, pushing through gaps in the central mountain chain with a gusty east wind below canyons opening into the central valley around Albuquerque and Santa Fe. Meanwhile, southeast areas will feel a surge in Gulf moisture as a trough over the west coast and tropical system moving westward over south TX and Big Bend work in consort to strengthen southeasterly return flow into NM. As a result of all this moisture, and perturbations in southwest flow aloft, scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast along and east of the central mountain chain on Wednesday, with some spottier and mainly dry/gusty cells as far west as Mount Taylor and the Jemez Mountains. Coverage may become numerous over northeast areas by late afternoon with storm motion mainly toward the north and northeast around 20-30 mph. Shear and instability again look favorable for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon, mainly along the east slopes of the central mountain chain, and eastward across east central areas. High temperatures on Wednesday should fall a few to around 17 degrees across the eastern plains from today`s readings, while rising a few to several degrees across western areas. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 247 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Moisture advection will ramp-up Wednesday night behind the backdoor front and Gulf moisture will be drawn northwest across the area due to troughing along the west coast. Cooling from convection east of the central mountain chain late Wednesday will increase the pressure gradient after a hot day across western NM, resulting in a strong and gusty east canyon wind into the RGV and likely requiring a Wind Advisory. The 00z model solutions all show qpf bullseyes overnight Wednesday across eastern NM, with the NAM furthest west from the east slopes of the Sandias north across the east slopes of the Sangre De Cristos. A Flash Flood Watch may be needed for area burn scars for Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night and will look for better model consensus on placement of qpf bullseyes before issuing. Thursday is looking too stable for deep convection, with ridging in the mid levels of the atmosphere as an easterly wave moves south of the area. Instability will be on the uptrend thereafter, with good chances for showers and storms favoring northwest and north central NM Friday as the west coast trough moves east across the Intermountain West. High temperatures will be below normal on Thu/Fri, especially across eastern NM, due to cloud cover and rain-cooling. An upper level high will strengthen over the region and be centered along the AZ/NM border from Saturday through Monday, bringing increasing temperatures that will rise above normal areawide by Monday. Daytime heating triggered storms are forecast from Saturday through Monday, favoring the mountains and bringing a threat for burn scar flooding. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1124 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Southwest winds will increase thru the afternoon with gusts of 20 to 30 kt common at all terminals. Areas of smoke will reduce vsby downwind of fires around Ruidoso. A dryline near the TX/NM border will allow SHRA/TS to develop around 4pm today then move quickly east/southeast into west TX thru 9pm. Some of this activity may be strong to severe with hail and damaging winds. A backdoor cold front will then surge southwest into eastern NM tonight with much higher moisture and gusty northeast winds. Widespread MVFR low cigs and SHRA/TS are likely behind the front for northeast NM after midnight. Light gap winds will develop in the RGV as well with gusts up to 25 kt from near KSAF to KABQ around sunrise. MVFR low cigs may develop as far west as the central mt chain but confidence is still low at this time. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 247 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Wind gusts up to 40 mph and very low humidities will return to northeast areas today, where critical fire weather conditions are expected during the afternoon until sunset. However, fuel moisture is thought to be too high, and ERCs from 30-65% are thought to be too low to warrant a Red Flag Warning. Otherwise, isolated dryline thunderstorms are forecast over the far eastern plains this afternoon and evening, then storms will develop over far northeast areas with a gusty and moist backdoor front tonight. The backdoor front will push through gaps in the central mountain chain with a moderately gusty east canyon wind from Albuquerque to Santa Fe early on Wednesday, then a fairly strong east wind in the same area Wednesday night. A summertime thunderstorm pattern will develop Wednesday through the end of the week as a mid level high pressure system over the east central US, a tropical system passing to the south of the fire weather forecast area, and a trough on the west coast all work in consort to draw Gulf moisture over New Mexico. The richest moisture will be found over eastern areas Wednesday, but it will shift gradually westward over central areas Thursday and Friday, then moderate on Saturday. The western fringe of the moisture will probably see dry and gusty thunderstorms each day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 85 55 93 65 / 0 0 0 10 Dulce........................... 83 44 89 53 / 0 0 0 30 Cuba............................ 83 52 86 57 / 0 0 5 30 Gallup.......................... 85 45 91 56 / 0 0 0 5 El Morro........................ 81 49 88 60 / 0 0 0 10 Grants.......................... 87 47 91 60 / 0 0 0 20 Quemado......................... 85 51 89 60 / 0 0 0 20 Magdalena....................... 89 59 89 63 / 0 0 5 30 Datil........................... 85 54 87 61 / 0 0 5 20 Reserve......................... 89 46 93 52 / 0 0 0 20 Glenwood........................ 92 61 97 65 / 0 0 0 10 Chama........................... 78 45 83 51 / 0 0 5 30 Los Alamos...................... 83 60 85 61 / 0 0 20 40 Pecos........................... 84 55 82 55 / 0 0 30 70 Cerro/Questa.................... 78 45 80 52 / 0 0 20 40 Red River....................... 72 41 72 46 / 0 5 30 50 Angel Fire...................... 76 37 75 45 / 0 5 30 70 Taos............................ 85 49 85 55 / 0 0 20 40 Mora............................ 84 48 79 50 / 0 5 40 70 Espanola........................ 91 56 92 61 / 0 0 10 40 Santa Fe........................ 84 59 86 62 / 0 0 20 50 Santa Fe Airport................ 88 57 89 63 / 0 0 10 40 Albuquerque Foothills........... 91 64 93 68 / 0 0 10 40 Albuquerque Heights............. 94 63 95 67 / 0 0 5 30 Albuquerque Valley.............. 96 62 97 66 / 0 0 5 30 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 93 64 95 67 / 0 0 5 30 Belen........................... 97 59 98 64 / 0 0 5 30 Bernalillo...................... 94 63 96 67 / 0 0 10 30 Bosque Farms.................... 96 58 97 62 / 0 0 5 30 Corrales........................ 94 63 96 65 / 0 0 10 30 Los Lunas....................... 96 59 97 63 / 0 0 5 30 Placitas........................ 89 64 91 67 / 0 0 10 40 Rio Rancho...................... 93 64 95 68 / 0 0 10 30 Socorro......................... 99 62 100 68 / 0 0 5 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 84 59 86 61 / 0 0 20 40 Tijeras......................... 87 59 89 63 / 0 0 20 40 Edgewood........................ 88 55 89 61 / 0 0 20 40 Moriarty/Estancia............... 89 52 89 56 / 0 0 20 40 Clines Corners.................. 85 54 82 55 / 0 0 30 40 Mountainair..................... 88 56 89 59 / 0 0 20 40 Gran Quivira.................... 89 56 90 57 / 0 0 20 30 Carrizozo....................... 93 64 94 63 / 0 0 20 20 Ruidoso......................... 86 58 85 56 / 0 0 40 60 Capulin......................... 86 51 73 55 / 5 30 50 50 Raton........................... 90 52 78 55 / 5 20 40 60 Springer........................ 92 54 81 57 / 0 10 50 60 Las Vegas....................... 86 52 79 55 / 0 5 40 70 Clayton......................... 94 60 78 59 / 5 30 50 40 Roy............................. 90 58 80 58 / 0 20 50 50 Conchas......................... 98 65 88 62 / 0 10 40 50 Santa Rosa...................... 95 63 85 62 / 0 5 40 50 Tucumcari....................... 98 67 88 62 / 20 10 30 40 Clovis.......................... 96 67 88 63 / 20 20 20 30 Portales........................ 98 67 88 63 / 20 20 20 30 Fort Sumner..................... 99 68 90 64 / 5 0 30 40 Roswell......................... 105 72 96 68 / 5 5 20 40 Picacho......................... 98 61 89 61 / 0 0 40 50 Elk............................. 95 57 89 57 / 0 0 40 30 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ238. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...42