672
FXUS65 KABQ 221806 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1206 PM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 839 AM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Quick update to increase rain chances from southwest to northeast
across the forecast area this morning and to lower high
temperatures significantly areawide. With this morning`s PWAT`s
value of another daily record breaking 1.32", high temperatures
will struggle mightily to reach even the NBM`s 5th percentile
category.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 408 AM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Rain chances today, continue to be focused over the western part
of the state, while east of the Rio Grande we will see less clouds
as we move into the afternoon. For Sunday and Monday we will
continue to see low rain chances, mainly over western New Mexico,
while our high temperatures will slowly trend higher. For the
middle of next week, we will still have a slight chance for rain,
mainly over the higher terrain of western New Mexico. High
temperatures will be running 5 to 10 degrees above average.
Moisture and precipitation chances increase, along with the risk
for flash flooding, for the end of next week, but our high
temperatures will trend a few degrees cooler.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 408 AM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024

We will see drier and warmer conditions over the next 48 hours as
upper level high pressure nudges back into the region. The plume
of moisture that brought heavy rain to locations west of the Rio
Grande, will continue to push to the west into Arizona. While the
deeper moisture and threat for flash flooding will continue to
shift west, we will still see a chance for scattered
thunderstorms, especially west of the Rio Grande. Locations that
saw heavy rain yesterday may see some thunderstorms today which
could lead to more excessive runoff and flash flooding. The main
threat for any flash flooding will be around the Gallup region up
into areas around Farmington. High temperatures today will trend a
little higher than we saw on Friday as the ridge aloft slowly
moves into the region.

More of the same on Sunday with high temperatures creeping another
couple of degrees higher. Moisture that is trapped under the ridge
will help fuel isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Like today,
the main focus for thunderstorms will be across north central New
Mexico into western New Mexico. Since soil moisture west of the
Rio Grande remain high, there will continue to be a threat for
flash flooding west of the Rio Grande on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 408 AM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024

The warmer temperatures trend will continue on Monday and then
with the ridge directly over New Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday,
we will see our hottest days of the week for the those two days.
High temperatures both days will run 5 to 10 degrees above
average. And like on Sunday, just enough moisture will be trapped
under the ridge aloft to help fuel isolated to scattered
thunderstorms each afternoon and early evening, mainly over the
high terrain of northern and western New Mexico. By late on
Wednesday through the end of next week, we will see the upper
level ridge begin to shift to the east. The clockwise circulation
around the ridge will allow a plume of moisture to move into the
region from the south and we will see better rain chances for the
end of next week. The rain and clouds will lower our high
temperatures a few degrees, but it will also increase the threat
for flash flooding, especially in regions of fresh and recent burn
scars.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1157 AM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Light stratiform precip. extends from the southwest to the
northeast across the state, with overcast skies generally
prevailing. There is some clearing across the southeast and
northwest where convective cumulus is beginning to develop over
the high terrain. Scattered showers and storms will increase in
coverage this afternoon, then decrease again this evening although
showers may linger through the overnight. VFR conditions will
generally prevail, but brief MVFR to IFR conditions are possible
under heavier showers and storms that will be most common south of
I-40 and west of I-25.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 408 AM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024

We will see lower fire weather concerns over the next week, as
moisture keeps our min RH`s higher and gives us at least a slight
chance for rain. Aloft, upper level high pressure will build into
New Mexico over the next few days. This ridge aloft will keep our
surface winds generally light. The ridge aloft will push most of
the moisture into Arizona, but some moisture will continue to be
trapped under the ridge and will help fuel isolated thunderstorms,
mainly over area mountains. Any rain falling on recent burn
scars, could lead to rapid runoff. With the moisture in place min
RH`s will stay above 20% today through Monday. Warmer temperatures
will lead to lower min RH`s on Tuesday and Wednesday, but then
for the end of next week, moisture, rain chances and higher min
RH`s return to the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  80  63  91  63 /  30  10  10   0
Dulce...........................  77  47  87  47 /  30  20  10   0
Cuba............................  74  58  83  56 /  40  30  30  10
Gallup..........................  75  54  86  52 /  70  30  30   5
El Morro........................  70  58  79  57 /  80  40  50  20
Grants..........................  75  55  83  55 /  80  30  50  20
Quemado.........................  72  59  80  58 /  90  70  70  30
Magdalena.......................  75  64  82  65 /  80  60  60  20
Datil...........................  71  60  80  62 /  90  60  70  20
Reserve.........................  77  55  88  55 /  90  60  70  20
Glenwood........................  81  68  94  69 /  80  50  60  10
Chama...........................  74  49  81  48 /  40  20  30   5
Los Alamos......................  74  64  81  63 /  50  30  40  10
Pecos...........................  74  60  80  60 /  60  40  50  20
Cerro/Questa....................  72  50  80  50 /  40  30  40   5
Red River.......................  67  48  72  47 /  50  30  40   5
Angel Fire......................  71  45  77  44 /  50  30  40   5
Taos............................  77  55  85  53 /  40  20  30   5
Mora............................  76  53  80  52 /  50  40  50  10
Espanola........................  81  63  90  61 /  40  20  30  10
Santa Fe........................  74  63  83  63 /  60  30  40  10
Santa Fe Airport................  77  63  86  62 /  60  30  30  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  78  69  88  70 /  60  40  40  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  80  68  90  68 /  60  30  30  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  82  68  91  68 /  60  30  30  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  80  69  90  69 /  60  40  30  10
Belen...........................  82  67  92  66 /  60  50  40  20
Bernalillo......................  81  69  91  68 /  60  30  30  10
Bosque Farms....................  82  65  91  65 /  70  40  30  10
Corrales........................  81  68  91  68 /  60  30  30  10
Los Lunas.......................  82  67  91  67 /  70  40  40  20
Placitas........................  77  68  87  68 /  50  40  30  10
Rio Rancho......................  80  68  90  68 /  60  30  30  10
Socorro.........................  86  70  95  70 /  50  50  40  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  72  64  82  64 /  60  40  40  10
Tijeras.........................  74  65  84  65 /  60  40  40  10
Edgewood........................  77  61  85  60 /  60  40  40  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  80  59  86  57 /  60  40  40  10
Clines Corners..................  75  59  80  59 /  60  50  40  10
Mountainair.....................  77  61  84  61 /  60  60  40  20
Gran Quivira....................  77  60  84  61 /  70  60  60  20
Carrizozo.......................  80  66  90  67 /  50  40  30  10
Ruidoso.........................  75  59  80  60 /  60  30  50  10
Capulin.........................  77  58  82  57 /  40  30  50   5
Raton...........................  80  58  86  57 /  40  30  40   5
Springer........................  81  60  88  58 /  50  40  40   5
Las Vegas.......................  77  58  80  57 /  50  40  50  10
Clayton.........................  85  66  90  65 /  40  30  30  10
Roy.............................  80  63  85  62 /  40  40  40  10
Conchas.........................  87  68  93  66 /  30  40  20  10
Santa Rosa......................  82  65  89  65 /  30  40  20  10
Tucumcari.......................  87  67  92  67 /  20  30   5  10
Clovis..........................  87  66  93  68 /  20  20   5  10
Portales........................  88  66  94  69 /  10  10   0  10
Fort Sumner.....................  85  68  93  68 /  20  20  10  10
Roswell.........................  90  70  97  73 /  20   5   5   0
Picacho.........................  82  63  90  64 /  30  20  30  10
Elk.............................  83  58  89  60 /  40  20  30   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ205>208-214-215-
226-229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...16