875
FXUS65 KABQ 220548 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1148 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 312 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Strong to severe storms are possible across east and southeast NM
today and tonight, with large hail and damaging wind gusts being the
main concern, though a nonzero tornado threat exists. Sunday will be
drier and cooler as a backdoor front moves through late Saturday
night. Temperatures will be up to 20 degrees below average east of
the central mountains. Monday will see a slight warming trend and
isolated showers across the northern mountains. Tuesday will see the
potential for isolated to scattered showers across the east and
southeast areas of the state. A warming and drying trend will begin
Wednesday and progress into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 312 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Closed low center just east of the Kaibab Plateau in north central
AZ this afternoon is forecast to continue to lift to the east-
northeast late this afternoon and evening. Strong southwesterly flow
on the east side of the low center continues to result in rounds of
fast moving showers and thunderstorms mainly east of the central
mountain chain. Hi-res models continue to show a brief lull in the
action early this afternoon before very dry air aloft moves overhead
and destabilizes the atmosphere further over eastern NM (dry air is
more dense than moist air so airmass becomes very buoyant as a
result). Plentiful low level moisture combined with current
effective bulk shear values ranging between 45 to 60 kt and Storm
Relative Helicity (SRH) of 100 m2/s2 plus will result in organized
severe storms across east central and northeast NM with large hail,
severe winds to 70 kt along with a slight chance for a tornado or
two near the TX line mainly from Tucumcari south to Clovis,
Portales, Dora, Pep and Milnesand. As the above mentioned closed low
moves to near the Four Corners during the late afternoon, gusty
showers and thunderstorms will become more prevalent from near
Gallup north to Shiprock and Farmington and then east and southeast
to the Tusas and Jemez mountains. Very dry air below these showers,
however, will result in brief moderate to perhaps heavy rain but the
main impact will most likely end up being strong outflow winds
ranging from 55 to 60 mph along with patchy blowing dust. Models
agree that the closed low will drift northeastward into southwest CO
this evening and to west central CO after midnight. Showers and
thunderstorms continue over the northeast third of NM as the
backdoor front undercuts a stout southwest flow aloft to result in
isentropic upglide or what is often referred to as "overrunning".
Tough to rule out, however, isolated elevated strong to severe
storms over the northeast third of the state through approximately
22/06Z or 12:00 AM MDT Sunday.

Easterly upslope flow overnight will result in areas of low clouds,
patchy fog and drizzle through Sunday mid morning before slowly
dissipating during the afternoon. High temperatures on Sunday are
forecast to trend down behind the tonight`s front, cooling 5 to 10
degrees F east of the Divide and 8 to 20 degrees F east of the
central mountain chain. A relatively cool night is in store Sunday
night/Monday morning, especially central and west as dry air
continues to move overtake the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 312 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2024

West-northwest upper level flow will sit over NM on Monday as the
system responsible for Saturday`s severe storms moves out into the
central US. Pressure heights will rise slightly on Monday, giving
way to slight warming across the state, though temperatures will
remain at or below average. Modest mid-level moisture will remain
over the north-central mountains, allowing for isolated showers and
storms across the central mountain chain and the adjacent highlands
mainly in the evening hours.

Tuesday will see a positively tilted upper trough extend southward
from the northern plains into our area. Models have started to agree
more on the setup for the start of the day with northerly flow
advecting moisture from the northern Plains into NM/TX through the
day. Slight differences appear later Tuesday as the ECMWF continues
to develop a low over the Texas Panhandle, while the GFS forms a
weak shortwave near Austin, TX, with its main low being centered
near Kansas City. The ECMWF has consistently trended eastward with
the center of this low (it was centered over NM in yesterday`s
runs). As the GFS has had consistent placement of its low in recent
runs, leaning towards GFS solutions may produce a better forecast.
Said forecast would call for a drier Tuesday than initially thought,
as PoPs have decrease from yesterday`s afternoon forecast package.
Uncertainty still remains, but confidence in a wet Tuesday has
lessened, though still possible.

While exact placement of the upper level low remains in doubt, a
general agreement in the overall pattern is in place moving into
Wednesday. An elongated ridge will start to gradually force our low
eastward away from NM, limiting moisture in the state and raising
pressure heights. This will induce the warming and drying trend that
has been signaled in previous model runs and forecasts. Much of the
same is in store for Thursday as the general pattern remains
stagnant. A slight change in the pattern appears apparent into next
weekend as the high becomes more focused over AZ/northern Mexico as
a longwave trough digs into the Pacific Northwest. The low will
likely still be in the south central US and remain there through the
weekend until the aforementioned longwave trough begins to force
it out.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1133 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2024

While thunderstorms have mostly come to an end in eastern New
Mexico, there will still be unsettled weather lingering into
Sunday across this half of the state. The culprit low pressure
system will continue to work into eastern Colorado through Sunday
morning, pushing a cold front farther down the plains and
eventually westward into the Rio Grande valley and Continental
Divide areas of New Mexico. This will keep scattered to broken low
stratus clouds and drizzle over much of the eastern half of New
Mexico with ceilings commonly dropping below 3000 ft (MVFR status)
and localized areas of ceilings less than 1000 ft (IFR status).
Ceilings may rise through the late morning and early afternoon,
but may not fully erode away until very late in the afternoon. Low
clouds could then redevelop along the east slopes of the central
mountain chain (near KRTN, KLVS, KCQC, and KSRR) Sunday evening.
Dry and VFR conditions with no limits to ceilings/visibility are
forecast for the western half of New Mexico tonight through Sunday
evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 312 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Weather conditions will trend drier in western and central NM
Sunday, continuing through much of the work week while eastern NM
stays relatively cool and cloudy at times through the the week. A
high amplitude ridge of high pressure will strengthen over AZ
northward through the Great Basin on Wednesday. High temperatures
will trend up Wednesday and Thursday as this ridge edges eastward
over western NM. The ridge continues to inch eastward Friday into
the weekend with mainly drier and warmer than average weather
conditions continuing into early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  42  73  45  79 /  10   5   0   0
Dulce...........................  33  68  34  74 /  20  10   5  10
Cuba............................  36  68  39  73 /  20   5   0   0
Gallup..........................  33  74  35  78 /   5   5   0   0
El Morro........................  34  71  39  74 /   0   5   0   0
Grants..........................  33  73  36  78 /   5   5   0   0
Quemado.........................  36  72  39  75 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  44  72  45  75 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  37  71  40  75 /   0   5   0   0
Reserve.........................  37  81  41  83 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  45  83  49  86 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  31  62  32  67 /  30  20   5  10
Los Alamos......................  44  65  44  70 /  20  10   0   5
Pecos...........................  43  63  40  71 /  30  10   0  10
Cerro/Questa....................  38  62  38  68 /  40  20   0  10
Red River.......................  32  53  31  59 /  60  20   0  20
Angel Fire......................  27  54  24  63 /  50  20   0  10
Taos............................  37  65  34  71 /  30  10   0  10
Mora............................  36  60  36  70 /  50  20   0  10
Espanola........................  42  73  42  78 /  30  10   0   0
Santa Fe........................  43  67  44  72 /  20  10   0   5
Santa Fe Airport................  41  71  41  75 /  20   5   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  50  76  49  80 /  10   5   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  51  77  51  81 /   5   5   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  47  79  47  83 /   5   5   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  49  78  49  81 /   5   5   0   0
Belen...........................  44  78  44  82 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  47  79  47  82 /  10   5   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  43  78  43  81 /   5   5   0   0
Corrales........................  48  79  48  83 /  10   5   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  45  78  45  81 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  46  74  46  79 /  10   5   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  48  77  48  81 /   5   5   0   0
Socorro.........................  50  82  50  85 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  43  66  41  72 /  10   5   0   0
Tijeras.........................  41  68  38  75 /   5   5   0   0
Edgewood........................  39  67  35  76 /  10   5   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  39  66  35  78 /  10   5   0   0
Clines Corners..................  45  61  39  72 /  20   5   0   0
Mountainair.....................  41  69  38  75 /   5   5   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  42  70  40  75 /   5   5   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  49  76  48  79 /   0   5   0   5
Ruidoso.........................  47  69  43  72 /   0  10   5  10
Capulin.........................  40  51  35  69 /  70  20   0   5
Raton...........................  42  59  35  74 /  70  20   0   5
Springer........................  43  63  37  75 /  40  10   0   5
Las Vegas.......................  40  62  38  73 /  40  10   0   5
Clayton.........................  47  58  41  74 /  70  10   0   0
Roy.............................  45  62  40  71 /  60   5   0   0
Conchas.........................  52  68  45  77 /  60   5   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  50  64  43  75 /  50   5   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  53  67  43  76 /  60   5   0   0
Clovis..........................  57  64  46  78 /  60  10   5   0
Portales........................  58  65  46  79 /  60  10   5   0
Fort Sumner.....................  55  66  45  76 /  40   5   0   0
Roswell.........................  61  70  55  83 /  20   0   5   5
Picacho.........................  50  73  47  78 /   5   5   0   5
Elk.............................  47  75  45  80 /   0   5   5  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...52