Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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088 FXUS65 KABQ 190807 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 207 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 155 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Today will be another warm and quiet day across the area. The weather turns more active tomorrow as Gulf moisture is pulled into eastern New Mexico. Strong to severe storms with large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible east of the central mountain chain. In addition, training storms may produce flash flooding, with the highest risk over the HPCC burn scar. Storms are likely again in the east on Saturday as a Pacific cold front sweeps across the state from west to east. Drier weather returns Sunday and Monday, but rain chances may return to eastern and northern areas by the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 155 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Increasing pressure heights and warmer temperatures are forecast today as an upper high over deep south TX swells northward ahead of an upper low, currently moving south along the central CA coast per the latest water vapor satellite imagery. Highs today will generally be above normal central/east and near normal west. Moisture advection will ramp-up tonight into Friday ahead of the upper low, which is forecast to turn inland and move east across SoCal late day. Convection is forecast to initiate early Friday, generally along/east of the central mountain chain, as southwest winds aloft trend up in advance of the approaching low. The latest NAM is showing impressive 0-6km bulk shear of 45-60kts Friday afternoon across central/eastern NM, with LIs of -3 to -5C and sbCAPE up to 1300J/kg. While the instability isn`t overly impressive, the shear certainly is and will likely warrant an upgrade to SPC`s convective outlook from a current general thunderstorm category to at least a marginal risk for severe storms. The latest CAMs show potential for both the HPCC and Sacramento Complex burn scars to take a hit Friday, with at least some potential for flash flooding. The HPCC scar may have the greater threat as storms initially move north- northeast with the potential for training of storms. Forecast confidence is too low to issue a watch at this time, but will be reassessed by later shifts. Breezy to locally windy conditions will prevail Friday as stronger winds aloft overtake the region, with the strongest winds likely across far western NM. Some relative cooling is forecast across eastern NM Friday due to the added moisture resulting in clouds and potential rain-cooling of the lower boundary layer. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 155 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Strong to severe storms may persist past sunset Friday evening since storms will continue to tap into elevated instability. Training storms over saturated soils from rounds of storms earlier in the day could result in localized flash flooding as well. The aformentioned Pacific trough will continue barreling toward New Mexico on Saturday. Models have disagreed on its track the past few days, but it appears that they have settled on the more northerly track. This means less precipitation for northwest and north-central areas, but a quick burst of precipitation is still possible as the Low moves overhead, before the dry air is advected in. Instability out east likely won`t be as high on Saturday afternoon, but strong to severe storms are still possible in the far northeast corner of the state. A cooler and drier airmass will be advected in from the west Saturday evening as a cold front moves through. Briefly gusty winds are possible as this early season cold front pushes through as well. Cooler and drier air settling in will set the stage for a relatively chilly night. Temps will approach the freezing mark for the first time this season in several northern mountain communities like Chama and Mora and temps could drop into the low 40s in Santa Fe. A backdoor front will push into the eastern plains Sunday as the trough exits into the High Plains. Briefly gusty east canyon winds are possible as a result on Sunday night, but an impactful event appears unlikely. Ensemble guidance continues to suggest that troughing will persist in the vicinity of New Mexico early to mid- week, opening up the opportunity for a storm system to drop down east slopes of the Rockies into the Land of Enchantment. The exact details remain uncertain but there is at least the potential for more showers and storms which will favor northern and eastern areas. The current forecast shows a slight chance of precipitation during the Tuesday through Thursday time period, but these will likely shift in the coming days as guidance gets into better agreement. If there is a storm, it will likely come from the north or east, opening up the potential for an east canyon wind event around the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1055 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024 VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF period with mostly light winds. Very low probabilities of low stratus/fog developing across southeast NM early Thursday morning, with potential impacts to KROW. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 155 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast for at least the next seven days. A drying/warming trend continues today before moisture advection tonight into Friday ahead of an upper level low forecast to move east from over SoCal and across NM on Saturday. Humidity will trend up tonight through Friday night across much of central/eastern NM as will chances for wetting storms, which will focus along/east of the central mountain chain. Dry and breezy/windy conditions will prevail across far western NM Friday ahead of the upper low, with those conditions spreading into central and southern portions of the area Saturday as the upper low moves across the Four Corners and into southern CO. Drier and cooler conditions will follow on Sunday, with forecast confidence decreasing rapidly thereafter as the latest medium range model solutions diverge with the handling of an upper level trough coming out of the Pacific NW. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 81 49 84 50 / 0 0 0 5 Dulce........................... 78 40 79 41 / 0 0 10 10 Cuba............................ 77 48 80 48 / 0 0 10 10 Gallup.......................... 81 42 83 42 / 0 0 0 10 El Morro........................ 79 48 81 43 / 0 0 5 10 Grants.......................... 82 44 84 43 / 0 0 5 5 Quemado......................... 80 48 80 43 / 0 0 0 10 Magdalena....................... 83 57 83 54 / 0 5 10 5 Datil........................... 81 49 81 44 / 0 0 10 0 Reserve......................... 82 46 81 43 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 85 56 84 53 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 70 41 73 42 / 0 0 10 20 Los Alamos...................... 78 56 78 54 / 0 0 30 20 Pecos........................... 79 51 76 53 / 0 5 40 30 Cerro/Questa.................... 74 46 76 48 / 0 0 20 20 Red River....................... 66 42 67 43 / 0 0 30 20 Angel Fire...................... 71 35 72 39 / 0 0 30 20 Taos............................ 78 43 79 46 / 0 0 20 20 Mora............................ 78 46 74 47 / 0 0 50 20 Espanola........................ 84 51 85 52 / 0 0 20 20 Santa Fe........................ 81 55 80 56 / 0 5 30 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 84 53 83 54 / 0 5 30 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 85 62 83 62 / 0 5 20 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 87 60 85 59 / 0 5 20 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 90 56 88 59 / 0 5 20 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 87 58 86 59 / 0 5 20 10 Belen........................... 91 56 90 57 / 0 5 10 10 Bernalillo...................... 88 56 88 57 / 0 5 20 10 Bosque Farms.................... 90 54 89 57 / 0 5 20 10 Corrales........................ 88 56 87 59 / 0 5 20 10 Los Lunas....................... 90 54 89 58 / 0 5 10 10 Placitas........................ 85 59 84 57 / 0 5 20 20 Rio Rancho...................... 88 58 87 58 / 0 5 20 10 Socorro......................... 91 62 91 60 / 0 5 10 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 81 55 79 53 / 0 5 30 20 Tijeras......................... 82 57 80 55 / 0 5 30 20 Edgewood........................ 83 53 80 52 / 0 5 30 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 85 48 81 51 / 0 5 40 20 Clines Corners.................. 81 54 78 52 / 0 5 50 20 Mountainair..................... 83 55 81 54 / 0 5 30 10 Gran Quivira.................... 84 55 81 55 / 0 5 40 10 Carrizozo....................... 88 63 85 60 / 0 10 40 20 Ruidoso......................... 81 57 76 56 / 0 5 50 20 Capulin......................... 79 52 79 52 / 0 0 30 20 Raton........................... 82 47 82 50 / 0 0 30 10 Springer........................ 85 46 82 51 / 0 0 40 20 Las Vegas....................... 82 50 77 50 / 0 0 50 30 Clayton......................... 85 60 84 60 / 0 0 30 20 Roy............................. 84 56 77 56 / 0 5 50 40 Conchas......................... 91 61 84 59 / 0 5 50 40 Santa Rosa...................... 90 60 80 59 / 0 5 50 40 Tucumcari....................... 93 62 86 61 / 0 5 40 30 Clovis.......................... 94 66 90 64 / 0 5 20 20 Portales........................ 95 66 92 65 / 0 5 20 20 Fort Sumner..................... 92 64 86 63 / 0 10 40 30 Roswell......................... 97 70 94 70 / 0 5 20 20 Picacho......................... 90 62 87 61 / 5 5 30 20 Elk............................. 89 59 86 58 / 5 5 30 20 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...11