Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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333 FXUS65 KABQ 011946 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 146 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1251 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024 An active 2024 North American Monsoon continues with rounds of storms through Wednesday and the potential for flash flooding, especially on and near area burn scars. Independence Day will be the hottest and driest of the forecast period, with isolated storms possible across southern portions of the area. A backdoor front will recharge moisture Friday and lead to an uptick in storm coverage going into the weekend, mainly along and east of the central mountain chain. Temperatures will rise late in the weekend and into early next week across western NM, under the influence of high pressure parked over the Desert Southwest. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 1251 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024 An anomalously high PWAT atmosphere persists over the area, with the 12Z KABQ upper air sounding showing 1.22" which is another calendar day record high. A round of daytime heating triggered convection is already underway and is forecast to expand in coverage and intensity going into the early evening hours. The CAMs have been consistency from this morning through mid day in showing convection initiating and staying east of the Sacramento burn scar complex and a round of storms impacting the Albuquerque and Santa Fe Metros between 4-8PM. The CAMs also show the HPCC burn scar being impacted by storms between 7-9PM this evening. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for much of central/western NM through 3AM, with no changes planned. The upper high will continue to back out of southern NM Tuesday, allowing the westerlies to penetrate further south into the state as an upper level trough/low ejects east out of the central Rockies. Greater west to east storm motion may lower the threat some for burn scar flooding Tuesday, but very little rain is needed to cause major problems now due to saturated grounds. A Flash Flood Watch for at least our problematic burn scars will need to be considered for Tuesday. Otherwise, Tuesday will be similar to today with another round of afternoon/evening storms forecast to impact the Albuquerque and Santa Fe Metros. Given the buoyant atmosphere, convection will be slower to diminish during the overnight hours compared to our normal loss of diurnal heating downturns. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 1251 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Weak westerly flow will prevail Wednesday and drier air will infiltrate northwest NM from the Great Basin as an upper high builds east from CA across the Desert SW. Wednesday will still be active, but not as active as today and Tuesday due to a downtrend in PWATs. In terms of burn scar flood threat on Wednesday, the Sacramento Complex will be the highest threat area due to slower storm motion and higher PWATs across southern portions of the area. The downtrend in PWATs will continue through Independence Day as northwest flow spreads east over the area with the upper high over CA strengthening and expanding. Independence Day will definitely be the hottest and driest day of the forecast cycle, but an isolated storms across southern portions of the area can not be ruled out. Just as quickly as the area dries out, a backdoor front will race southwest across the eastern plains to the central mountain chain late Thursday into early Friday. This will recharge moisture and set the stage for daily rounds of storms across eastern NM with northwest flow aloft through the weekend. Meanwhile, the upper high centroid will move inland and be over CA/NV, keeping western NM dry and bringing above normal temperatures going into early next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1021 AM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024 VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist, except for in/near scattered to numerous showers and storms this afternoon and overnight. MVFR conditions are likely with storms, but short- lived IFR conditions are possible. Torrential downpours, gusts to 40-50mph, small hail and frequent lightning are all possible with storms today through the evening hours. Highest impact probabilities among our TAF sites are at KAEG/KABQ and KSAF late this afternoon through the evening hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1251 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through at least the next seven days as an active North American Monsoon continues, bringing daily rounds of wetting storms and good to excellent humidity recovery. An elevated threat for burn scar flooding will exist through Wednesday, then trend down Independence Day before a backdoor front recharges moisture on Friday and brings a renewed threat for burn scar flooding going into the weekend. Increasing northwest flow aloft will dry-out western portions of the area from Independence Day onward through the weekend, brining back hot, dry and unstable conditons by late in the weekend and into early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 82 63 89 61 / 60 30 10 5 Dulce........................... 76 53 84 46 / 80 50 20 5 Cuba............................ 79 56 82 55 / 90 50 20 10 Gallup.......................... 80 56 86 53 / 70 40 30 10 El Morro........................ 76 57 81 56 / 80 50 50 30 Grants.......................... 80 57 83 54 / 80 50 50 20 Quemado......................... 80 59 82 58 / 80 60 70 30 Magdalena....................... 83 62 82 63 / 80 70 70 40 Datil........................... 81 58 80 59 / 80 60 70 30 Reserve......................... 86 58 87 57 / 70 50 60 30 Glenwood........................ 90 67 93 69 / 60 40 50 40 Chama........................... 72 50 79 48 / 80 50 20 10 Los Alamos...................... 78 60 80 61 / 90 70 50 10 Pecos........................... 81 57 82 58 / 70 50 50 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 75 50 80 46 / 80 60 30 10 Red River....................... 67 48 72 45 / 80 60 40 20 Angel Fire...................... 73 48 75 43 / 60 40 30 10 Taos............................ 80 55 84 52 / 70 70 20 10 Mora............................ 79 55 81 53 / 60 50 40 10 Espanola........................ 85 61 86 59 / 80 70 20 10 Santa Fe........................ 81 60 82 61 / 70 70 50 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 84 61 85 59 / 70 70 40 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 86 66 86 67 / 80 70 50 30 Albuquerque Heights............. 88 65 88 66 / 70 70 40 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 90 65 90 66 / 70 70 40 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 89 65 87 66 / 70 70 40 20 Belen........................... 91 64 90 63 / 70 70 50 30 Bernalillo...................... 88 65 89 66 / 70 70 40 20 Bosque Farms.................... 90 62 90 63 / 70 70 40 20 Corrales........................ 89 63 89 66 / 70 70 40 20 Los Lunas....................... 90 62 90 64 / 70 70 50 20 Placitas........................ 85 64 86 66 / 70 70 40 20 Rio Rancho...................... 88 65 88 66 / 70 70 40 20 Socorro......................... 94 68 90 69 / 70 70 60 30 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 81 60 81 62 / 80 70 60 20 Tijeras......................... 84 62 84 62 / 80 70 50 20 Edgewood........................ 84 60 85 59 / 70 60 50 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 86 58 86 56 / 70 60 50 20 Clines Corners.................. 81 57 82 57 / 70 50 60 30 Mountainair..................... 85 60 84 60 / 70 70 60 30 Gran Quivira.................... 87 60 85 60 / 60 60 60 40 Carrizozo....................... 89 67 89 67 / 40 50 50 40 Ruidoso......................... 82 60 81 61 / 50 30 70 50 Capulin......................... 83 59 83 56 / 50 30 40 30 Raton........................... 87 58 88 57 / 50 30 30 20 Springer........................ 89 61 89 58 / 50 30 30 20 Las Vegas....................... 81 58 83 56 / 50 40 50 20 Clayton......................... 92 66 91 63 / 20 30 30 30 Roy............................. 86 63 87 61 / 30 40 40 30 Conchas......................... 93 68 96 66 / 30 40 30 30 Santa Rosa...................... 89 66 91 65 / 40 50 40 30 Tucumcari....................... 96 69 98 67 / 20 30 30 40 Clovis.......................... 96 69 96 69 / 5 10 30 50 Portales........................ 96 70 98 70 / 5 10 30 40 Fort Sumner..................... 94 70 95 69 / 20 30 30 40 Roswell......................... 99 74 102 75 / 20 20 30 30 Picacho......................... 90 66 91 67 / 50 30 50 30 Elk............................. 88 62 88 63 / 40 30 70 40 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through late tonight for NMZ203-204-206>208-210>226- 229-241. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...11