795
FXUS65 KABQ 242033
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
233 PM MDT Fri May 24 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 201 PM MDT Fri May 24 2024

A dangerous fire weather pattern is forecast Saturday as
strong dry, warm and windy southwesterly flow expands over the
state. Peak gusts of 40 to 55 mph will be possible most areas with
high wind gusts to 60 mph expected over southwest Chaves County.
Extreme fire weather conditions will focus through the south-central
mountains, including Ruidoso. Blowing dust will also be a concern,
notably near Roswell. Winds and critical fire weather conditions
subside Sunday, and end by Memorial Day Monday. Dry and breezy to
windy weather returns to the western half of the state Tuesday while
chances for afternoon thunderstorms enters the northeastern plains,
expanding to all of eastern NM Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 201 PM MDT Fri May 24 2024

A pair of fast-moving upper level shortwaves approaching from the
Great Basin tonight will force a 110 kt speed max and associated
sharpening dry slot over NM thru Saturday. But first, southwest
winds over the region this afternoon with very low humidity and
unstable conditions will allow breezy conditions to continue thru
sunset. Fires over the area are expected to pump out increasing
amounts of smoke through sunset. The latest 18Z HRRR smoke forecast
indicates near-surface smoke concentrations increasing tonight over
the upper RGV from the Indios Fire and from Lincoln County to the
Pecos River Valley from the Blue Fire. BlueSky model output also
shows some of these areas reaching max PM2.5 values above 120 in
immediate vicinity of the fires by Saturday morning. This would lead
to unhealthy air quality for sensitive groups. Smoke remains in the
forecast grids and messaging for air quality impacts was noted in
the latest briefing package.

Saturday will be a dynamic day across the region as the core of the
upper level jet crosses central NM. The latest 18Z NAM shows surface
low pressure deepening to near 988mb over southeast CO with deep
mixing up to 15kft over central and eastern NM. 700-500mb layer
winds of 45 to 55 kt will focus over southern and eastern NM with
widespread surface wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph likely. The 12Z HREF
ensemble wind gusts support Wind Advisories over the high plains of
eastern NM with gusts in excess of 55 mph across southwest Chaves
County where a High Wind Warning has also been issued. These strong
winds along with several hours of single digit humidity, hot temps,
and unstable conditions south and east of ABQ will allow any fires
to spread rapidly with significant smoke transport likely. The 18Z
HRRR shows the Indios and Blue fire plumes extending into Saturday
night with additional smoke sources possible. BlueSky shows higher
max concentrations of PM2.5 Saturday evening so air quality concerns
are likely to continue or worsen. Meanwhile, winds will be gradually
shifting from southwest to west through late Saturday afternoon as a
weak cold front moves across NM. Cooler temps will arrive Saturday
night across the north and west with higher humidity and lighter
winds. Although winds will trend lighter Saturday night, locations
along the east slopes of the central mt chain, including Ruidoso,
will see gusty winds thru early Sunday morning as mountain wave
activity continues in the wake of the departing upper level
trough.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 201 PM MDT Fri May 24 2024

The shortwave trough responsible for amplifying
Saturday`s wind and fire weather conditions will exit over the
central Great Plains by Sunday. Winds will lessen as the pressure
gradient relaxes over NM. Wind speeds of 15 to 25 mph will still
support breezy to locally windy conditions along and just east of
the central mountain chain. Winds relax further on Memorial Day
Monday as a ridge of high pressure begins to move in from the west
and the leading edge of a backdoor cold front noses into
northeastern NM. Monday`s forecast highs rise 3F to 7F most areas
except behind the front in far northeastern NM, with 60s and 70s in
the higher terrain, 80s in the mid-elevations, and 90s in lower
valley areas by Socorro and the eastern plains south of I-40.

A shift to a two-faced weather pattern over NM begins to take shape
Tuesday with dry, warm and windy southwesterly flow returning to the
western two-thirds of the state. Moisture from the Great Plains and
Gulf of Mexico will begin to swash west and east each night and day
through eastern NM. This higher moisture looks to only be present in
far eastern NM along the TX border and the northeastern plains
Tuesday afternoon. Afternoon thunderstorm activity will favor this
area as a result. Outflow from these storms will push this moisture
westward to the central mountain chain with an east canyon wind at
Albuquerque and Santa Fe favored. Afternoon thunderstorm coverage
Wednesday will expand over eastern NM as a result. Thursday and
Friday see a continued troughing pattern over the western CONUS
producing dry, warm and windy southwesterly flow over the western
half of NM. This pattern will amplify, pushing low-level moisture
back east toward TX a bit, reducing the coverage of afternoon
thunderstorms both of these days to end next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Fri May 24 2024

An upper level trough approaching from the west will strengthen
southwest winds today. Smoke from several wildfires will increase
in coverage as a result with localized impacts to cigs/vsbys in
the vicinity of these fires. Surface winds will taper off this
evening but strengthen aloft as a strong speed max moves in from
the west. This will lead to areas of LLWS but confidence is low at
any particular terminal. Southwest to west winds will be strong
Saturday with gusts of 35 to 45 kt common, along with areas of
smoke and blowing dust expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 201 PM MDT Fri May 24 2024

...DANGEROUS FIRE GROWING PATTERN WILL PEAK SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL TO LOCALLY EXTREME FIRE WEATHER EXPECTED...

The ongoing fire growing pattern will peak on Saturday as an upper
level trough and associated dry slot shifts over NM. Ridge top winds
will remain elevated tonight with poor humidity recovery over much
of the region. Low humidity before sunrise will lead into widespread
critical to locally extreme fire weather by noon with 20ft southwest
winds gusting to between 35 and 45 mph by early afternoon. Above
normal temps and high Haines across southern and eastern areas will
coincide with an extended duration of single digit humidity. Winds
will gradually shift out of the west thru late Saturday afternoon
and early evening as a weak cold front slides across NM. Critical
conditions will taper off Saturday evening however west winds will
remain gusty along the east slopes of the central mt chain with mt
wave activity in the wake of the departing trough. One more day of
critical conditions is possible over the high plains of eastern NM
Sunday but with lighter winds and higher humidity.

Relief will finally arrive beginning Monday as a weak upper level
ridge builds over NM next week. Winds will trend lighter through
Thursday while moisture begins to slosh westward from west TX into
eastern NM. The coverage of storms with wetting rainfall may also
increase over eastern NM in this pattern. The warmest temps of this
season are likely for central and western NM next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  47  78  44  79 /   0   5   0   0
Dulce...........................  40  72  34  75 /   0  10   0   0
Cuba............................  43  73  40  74 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  39  74  36  77 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  40  70  38  72 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  41  75  38  78 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  41  74  38  75 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  49  78  47  79 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  43  73  41  74 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  36  78  34  82 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  50  81  49  85 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  37  66  33  69 /   0  10   0   0
Los Alamos......................  51  74  48  74 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  46  74  45  74 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  40  67  39  68 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  37  63  34  66 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  36  66  34  67 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  39  74  37  74 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  46  72  44  72 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  51  81  47  82 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  48  76  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  47  80  45  80 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  55  82  53  82 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  54  84  51  84 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  53  86  50  86 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  54  84  52  84 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  51  87  50  86 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  55  84  51  85 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  50  86  49  86 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  52  85  51  85 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  50  86  50  85 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  54  80  51  80 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  54  83  52  84 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  54  90  52  90 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  51  75  48  74 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  49  79  46  77 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  48  79  45  78 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  45  81  44  80 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  46  75  45  74 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  49  80  45  77 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  46  80  45  78 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  55  83  52  82 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  52  75  49  75 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  42  77  42  75 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  41  80  43  80 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  44  81  45  80 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  48  76  46  77 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  48  86  52  83 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  48  81  48  80 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  53  89  54  88 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  54  85  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  53  91  56  89 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  54  93  58  90 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  53  95  57  91 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  54  91  57  89 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  57  98  60  95 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  55  87  54  87 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  53  85  51  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Saturday for NMZ101-
104>106-109-120>126.

Wind Advisory from noon to 7 PM MDT Saturday for NMZ223-224-
226>229-231>233-239.

Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ123.

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
for NMZ125.

High Wind Warning from noon to 7 PM MDT Saturday for NMZ240.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...42