Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 152341 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
541 PM MDT Mon Aug 15 2022

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue across
central and western NM this evening. KGUP and KFMN will have the best
chance at additional thunderstorms impacting the area, but storms
developing over the Sandia and Manzano mountains combined with an
outflow boundary moving toward KABQ from the southwest will increase
chances for thunderstorms at KABQ and KSAF this evening as storms
shift toward the north. Brief MVFR cigs/vsbys will be possible with
the stronger storms. A cold front will back into northeast NM late
tonight. Though it will stall near KTCC Tuesday, increased moisture
behind the front will allow for numerous thunderstorms to develop
Tuesday afternoon from the Sangre de Cristo Mtns eastward. Another
round of scattered activity is expected across the west as well.



.PREV DISCUSSION...320 PM MDT Mon Aug 15 2022...
Shower and thunderstorm coverage and intensity will be on the
uptrend Tuesday and Wednesday. The active weather will continue
Thursday before increasing further Friday and Saturday thanks to a
subtropical low over northern Mexico. There will be an elevated risk
for locally very heavy rainfall and flash flooding through the week.
High temperatures will trend down through the week with below
average readings forecast Tuesday through Saturday.


The upper high over the TX Panhandle continues to extend a ridge
axis west over our area in advance of an approaching and potent
easterly wave, currently moving northwest from over southwest TX.
The monsoon moisture plume is still oriented from south to north
across eastern AZ and western NM, where showers and storms may
survive the loss of daytime heating and continue beyond midnight.
Eastern NM will remain mostly convection free this evening due to a
drier airmass there and subsidence associated with the upper level
ridge. A weak backdoor front will slide into northeast NM overnight
and boost PWATs there going into Tuesday, but a stronger push is
forecast to arrive late day and result in a round of deep convection
across the Sangre De Cristos and nearby highlands going into Tuesday
evening. The 12Z NAM and GFS solutions are fairly bullish with the
qpf across the northern mountain in general late Tuesday and with
light steering flow the threat of locally heavy rainfall is on the
uptrend, especially over the Hermits Peak Calf Canyon (HPCC) burn
scar. The current Flash Flood Watch for the HPCC burn scar expires
at 10PM MDT, but will likely be replaced with another watch for
Tuesday that may include more forecast zones. The backdoor front,
aided by convective cold pooling across eastern NM, will push
through the central mountain chain Tuesday night and result in a
gusty east canyon/gap wind and bring higher PWATs further west
across our area.

A sprawling monsoon high takes shape over NM and much of the western
U.S. Wednesday. Plenty of low level moisture will combine with
daytime heating to get scattered to numerous storm coverage most
areas Wednesday afternoon and evening. At the same time, a fairly
robust easterly wave/warm- core subtropical low is trekking westward
along the NM/Mexico border on Wednesday. Deep subtropical moisture
associated with this feature is forecast by all global weather
prediction models to slow or stall over northwest Sonora or northern
Baja Thursday and Friday. For Thursday, low-level easterly flow
combines with weak northerly storm steering flow to result in another
active convective day with slow moving storms and locally heavy
rain. By Friday, the above mentioned subtropical low`s remnant
moisture starts getting picked up by quite the wonky, negatively
tilted trough/low sliding southeastward through eastern OR and into
NV/UT. The flow between this cold-core low, subtropical low, and the
Bermuda high results in moderate southwest flow aloft and large-
scale atmospheric lift to act on the deep moisture over the weekend.
Saturday looks like quite the soggy day. The widespread rainfall is
forecast to result in plentiful debris clouds for Sunday, likely
making Sunday relatively stable with the best chances for showers and
storms across eastern and southern NM.



Atmospheric moisture and chances for wetting storms will trend up
going into mid week, thanks in part to a backdoor front that is
forecast to move southwest across the area Tuesday into early
Wednesday. With the increased moisture and chances for wetting
storms comes an increased risk for burn scar flooding, especially on
the Hermits Peak-Calf Canyon scar. A shortwave trough will move
slowly southeast across the region from over the Great Basin this
weekend, interacting with the monsoon moisture plume and allowing
good chances for wetting storms with the threat for burn scar
flooding to continue. Temperatures will dip below normal areawide by
Wednesday and stay below normal through the weekend due to abundant
cloud cover and anticipated rain-cooling.



Flood Watch until 10 PM MDT this evening for the following zones...


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