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000
FXUS65 KABQ 232336 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
536 PM MDT Sat Sep 23 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 221 PM MDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Some light showers and drizzle will be possible early across
northwest and north central New Mexico. Drier air overtakes the
state Sunday. Moisture and storm chances returns to eastern New
Mexico Monday, spreading north and west into most of eastern New
Mexico and parts of central New Mexico Tuesday. The McBride burn
scar will need to be watched for flash flooding Tuesday afternoon
with this moisture surge Storm chances look to drop off Wednesday
into late next week as drier air pushes in from the west. A stray
shower or storm can`t be ruled out across eastern New Mexico due to
lingering higher moisture. Temperatures will a few degrees above
normal through late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 221 PM MDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Spotty showers are noted on radar over northwest into north central
New Mexico as of this writing. Some top down moistening continues
over northern New Mexico but won`t be enough for much in the way of
wetting rainfall given how dry the surface dew points were starting
out this morning. Gusty winds and perhaps a few lightning strikes
will be possible as well with this activity. As the responsible
disturbance moves from west to east over southern Colorado tonight,
clouds and showers should be mostly cleared out by early Sunday
morning. A weak southeast wind shift over northeast New Mexico this
afternoon isn`t expected to make much more progress south and
westward until Sunday. Low level moisture in it`s wake holds off
until Sunday night to invade the east. Otherwise, an upper ridge
will dominate Sunday and Sunday night with relatively light winds.
Temperatures will be a little cooler than normal over northwest New
Mexico but near to above normal elsewhere. As of 2 PM Roswell has
reached 99 degrees, surpassing the old record high for today of 97
degrees which occurred in 1961. Guidance for Roswell`s high on
Sunday is slightly cooler than today`s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 221 PM MDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Moisture increases across southeast and east central NM during the
day Monday, thanks to surface easterly flow behind a backdoor front.
PWATs increase to around 0.75 to an inch by midday Monday for areas
along and east of the central mountain chain. Daytime heating along
with this upslope surface flow could result in an isolated shower or
storm along the east slopes of the central mountain chain, although
most model solutions remain dry. Central and western areas will
remain mostly clear with temperatures a little above average. Better
moisture moves in from the south Monday night into Tuesday across
the lower and middle RGV, ahead of a subtle shortwave trough between
the subtropical high over Baja California and a longwave trough over
the Pacific NW. PWATS across KABQ increase from around 0.50 inches
00Z Tuesday to around 0.75 inches 18Z Tuesday. The better moisture
and the subtle trough will help result in scattered coverage of
showers and storms across parts of central and eastern NM, mainly
south of I-40. QPF for Tuesday afternoon indicates that the McBride
burn scar will need to be watched for flash flooding and debris
flow, even through the heaviest QPF is just east of the burn scar
and Ruidoso.

Storm chances look to really drop off Wednesday, as weak upper level
ridging builds in and the higher moisture of PWATs greater than 0.50
inches gets confined to east central and southeast NM. Some
differences in the models begin to arise Thursday. The GFS depicts a
deeper longwave trough over the Pacific NW compared to the ECMWF and
Canadian Thursday afternoon/evening. This helps to bring up some
better moisture of PWATs greater than 0.75 inches into eastern New
Mexico resulting in a chance for isolated showers or storms.
Meanwhile the ECMWF and Canadian keeps the higher moisture in West
Texas. Come Friday and Saturday, the GFS is much quicker with the
trough moving east over the intermountain West, while the ECMWF digs
the trough closing into a low over the Great Basin. With this, the
GFS has some afternoon storms over eastern NM Friday with drier
westerly flow taking over Saturday. The ECMWF keeps higher moisture
of PWATs greater than 0.75 inches across eastern NM on Saturday,
resulting in the chance for showers and storms. Given the
uncertainty and differences just stuck with NBM PoPs. Temperatures
through late week will be a few degrees above average.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 525 PM MDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Faint mid to upper level moisture is streaming into west central,
northwestern and north central New Mexico as a weak disturbance
aloft and attendant cold front approach. This will continue to
produce light showers through the late evening, most of which
will produce minimal rainfall, but the bigger aviation weather
hazard will likely by gusty outflow winds. This shower activity
will disperse and come to an end near or shortly after midnight.
Prevailing winds are gusty in some locations, but these should
decrease around sunset, unless disrupted by any stray showers
passing by in northwestern New Mexico. VFR conditions with mostly
clear skies and light to moderate breezes will prevail on Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 221 PM MDT Sat Sep 23 2023

A disturbance moving through southern Colorado this afternoon and
tonight with associated clouds and isolated to scattered showers
over northern New Mexico. Despite some top down moistening wetting
rainfall will be hard to come by. Clouds and showers clear out
Sunday with some drying, but low level moisture will increase over
eastern New Mexico Monday into Tuesday in the wake of a backdoor
front. Chances for wetting convection increase Tuesday mainly over
central and eastern New Mexico. Quieter weather Wednesday may be
followed by more active storms Thursday through Friday over the
east. Southwest to west winds may increase Friday and Saturday
leading to some elevated critical fire weather conditions over
western and central New Mexico. Temperatures Monday through Saturday
will be above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  46  76  45  82 /  30   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  39  73  38  80 /  20   5   0   0
Cuba............................  43  72  43  77 /  20   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  39  76  39  82 /  10   0   0   0
El Morro........................  40  74  39  79 /  10   0   0   0
Grants..........................  40  78  39  82 /  10   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  44  77  43  81 /   5   0   0   5
Magdalena.......................  51  79  51  81 /   5   0   0   5
Datil...........................  46  77  46  79 /   0   0   0   5
Reserve.........................  48  82  47  84 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  57  85  57  89 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  36  68  36  74 /  20   5   0   5
Los Alamos......................  48  73  49  76 /  20   0   0  10
Pecos...........................  49  75  47  76 /   5   0   0  20
Cerro/Questa....................  37  71  37  75 /  20   5   0  10
Red River.......................  36  67  36  70 /  20   5   0  10
Angel Fire......................  34  68  32  70 /  20   5   5  10
Taos............................  41  74  40  77 /  20   0   0   5
Mora............................  45  73  42  73 /  10   0   5  20
Espanola........................  42  79  44  84 /  20   0   0  10
Santa Fe........................  48  75  49  77 /  10   0   0  10
Santa Fe Airport................  48  78  48  81 /  10   0   0  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  54  79  54  85 /   5   0   0   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  56  81  56  86 /   5   0   0   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  51  82  50  87 /   5   0   0   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  55  81  54  85 /   5   0   0   5
Belen...........................  56  85  55  87 /   0   0   0   5
Bernalillo......................  52  82  51  88 /   5   0   0   5
Bosque Farms....................  54  83  53  87 /   5   0   0   5
Corrales........................  53  81  52  87 /   5   0   0   5
Los Lunas.......................  55  84  54  87 /   5   0   0   5
Placitas........................  51  80  51  83 /   5   0   0   5
Rio Rancho......................  54  81  53  86 /   5   0   0   5
Socorro.........................  56  86  57  89 /   0   0   0   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  48  75  49  77 /   5   0   0  10
Tijeras.........................  50  77  50  80 /   5   0   0  10
Edgewood........................  47  77  46  80 /   0   0   0  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  44  79  43  82 /   0   0   0  10
Clines Corners..................  48  76  48  77 /   0   0   0  10
Mountainair.....................  49  78  48  82 /   0   0   0  10
Gran Quivira....................  51  79  50  82 /   0   0   0  10
Carrizozo.......................  59  83  56  85 /   0   0   0  10
Ruidoso.........................  56  76  52  76 /   0   0   0  20
Capulin.........................  46  74  45  74 /  10   5   0   5
Raton...........................  45  78  44  78 /  10   5   0   5
Springer........................  47  78  45  79 /  20   5   0   5
Las Vegas.......................  48  78  45  76 /   5   0   0  20
Clayton.........................  53  79  52  80 /  10   5   0   0
Roy.............................  52  77  50  77 /  10   5   5  10
Conchas.........................  55  84  53  84 /   5   5   0  10
Santa Rosa......................  56  86  54  79 /   0   0   0  10
Tucumcari.......................  56  86  56  82 /   0   0   0   5
Clovis..........................  57  87  57  82 /   0   0   5  10
Portales........................  58  88  58  84 /   0   0   5  10
Fort Sumner.....................  58  89  57  84 /   0   0   5  10
Roswell.........................  63  94  62  89 /   0   0   0  10
Picacho.........................  60  89  57  82 /   0   0   0  20
Elk.............................  59  85  54  81 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...52