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000
FXUS65 KABQ 100009
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
609 PM MDT Fri Jun 9 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 239 PM MDT Fri Jun 9 2023

Another chance of isolated thunderstorms exists in the northeast
corner of the state this evening, and similar storm chances are
expected every afternoon through the weekend and lingering into
Monday. The rest of New Mexico looks to stay dry and warm, yet
still with below average daytime temperatures until warming up
late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 239 PM MDT Fri Jun 9 2023

A plume of mid to upper level moisture has been dragged northward
over the southern half of NM today, thanks to a weak shortwave
crossing the state. Despite this, low-level moisture continues to
trend drier through western and central NM, pushing further into the
eastern plains of NM. With higher dewpoints in the upper 40s to low
50s still lingering in the northeastern quadrant of the state,
buildups are starting along the Sangre de Cristo Mountains this
hour. Isolated to scattered storms will result from this, tracking
east through northeastern NM for the rest of today and this evening.
Depending on how efficient vertical mixing is with bringing dry air
into the area, these storms will be chasing higher areas of
instability as they track east. With the plume of mid to upper level
cloud cover still mostly south of I-40, diurnal heating through
northeastern NM should favor the drier air mixing into this area
more efficiently. Will still need to monitor for strong to severe
storms mainly over Colfax and Union Counties for the rest of today.

Conditions clear out tonight with clearing skies west to east
through the night. Saturday will see a ridge of high pressure build
over the state with a similar setup in the boundary layer across
northern and central NM. Dry surface conditions through western,
central and southeastern sections of the forecast area with higher
moisture still hung-up in the northeastern plains. Afternoon storms
will again favor initiation along the Sangre de Cristo before
tracking east over northeastern NM. With the ridge of high pressure
in place, vertical wind shear will be less than today and there will
be less potential for strong to severe storms. Dry and sunny
elsewhere with highs climbing into the upper 90s at Roswell, upper
80s in the eastern plains and Middle Rio Grande Valley, and 70s to
near 80 at higher elevations.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 239 PM MDT Fri Jun 9 2023

Breezy south to southwesterly winds on Monday look to shift westerly
on Tuesday behind the passage of a dry cold front. This front is
associated with a weakening closed low over the western Great Basin.
Storm chances return to far northeast NM Tuesday evening/night
along a backdoor cold front. Mainly dry weather is expected
through the rest of the week as the dryline remains near the TX
line. Daytime temperatures will warm and become more seasonable
for this time of year as we round off the work week with upper
level ridging and less cloud cover, although far northeastern
parts of the state will continue to still see isolated storms each
afternoon and evening and a waffling back and forth of the
backdoor boundary/dryline.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 547 PM MDT Fri Jun 9 2023

Showers and thunderstorms are exiting northeast New Mexico with
just a few high-based light showers and virga expected to persist
through 10/0300UTC in east central to southeastern areas of the
state. High clouds will thin out overnight with another round of
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms expected in the
northeast corner of the state Saturday afternoon. Brief downpours
and gusty winds will be the main aviation hazards in additon to
lightning and small hail. Otherwise light to moderately breezy
conditions are expected in the afternoon and early evening hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 239 PM MDT Fri Jun 9 2023

Elevated to critical fire weather concerns return to the western and
southern tier of the forecast area Sunday through Tuesday. After a
ridge of high pressure moves over the state Tuesday, with mostly dry
conditions outside of a few isolated to scattered thunderstorms
favoring northeastern NM, southwest winds will strengthen Sunday.
Southerly to southwest winds gusting to 30 to 40 mph will favor
western and southern fire weather zones along the Continental Divide
and into the Middle Rio Grande Valley and adjacent highlands. With
daytime highs still near normal, minimum humidities will still fall
into the single-digits to low teens. The exception will be in the
aforementioned northeastern plains where higher low-level moisture
will lay. This general weather pattern holds true Monday before flow
aloft turns more zonal by Tuesday. Winds turn westerly to
northwesterly with temperatures trending a bit colder. Despite the
cooldown, very dry conditions combined with the breezy to windy
westerly to northwesterly winds will allow for continued rounds of
elevated to critical fire weather Tuesday and Wednesday. The
northeastern to east-central plains will remain the exception with
low level moisture remaining very stubborn to mix out.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  47  84  50  87 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  40  79  40  82 /   0   0   0   5
Cuba............................  44  79  49  81 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  37  80  39  81 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  39  79  41  78 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  37  83  39  84 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  42  81  45  79 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  49  82  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  44  79  45  78 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  38  83  40  82 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  42  87  47  86 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  40  74  39  76 /   0   0   0  20
Los Alamos......................  53  78  55  77 /   0   0   0  20
Pecos...........................  49  78  48  76 /   0   0   0  30
Cerro/Questa....................  41  75  41  73 /   5  10   5  20
Red River.......................  36  68  36  68 /   5  10   5  60
Angel Fire......................  30  71  33  68 /   5  10   0  60
Taos............................  38  80  42  79 /   0   0   0  20
Mora............................  45  76  43  72 /   0   0   0  50
Espanola........................  50  85  51  86 /   0   0   0  20
Santa Fe........................  50  80  50  79 /   0   0   0  20
Santa Fe Airport................  47  83  50  83 /   0   0   0  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  61  85  59  88 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  56  86  57  89 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  53  88  52  91 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  54  87  56  89 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  49  89  50  91 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  54  87  54  91 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  47  88  49  91 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  54  88  55  91 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  46  89  49  91 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  56  84  55  86 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  56  87  56  89 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  55  90  55  91 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  50  78  50  79 /   0   0   0   5
Tijeras.........................  51  82  50  82 /   0   0   0   5
Edgewood........................  48  82  45  81 /   0   0   0   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  39  83  41  82 /   0   0   0   5
Clines Corners..................  47  79  49  78 /   0   0   0  10
Mountainair.....................  48  81  49  82 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  50  81  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  56  84  57  87 /   5   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  48  77  50  80 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  46  77  47  69 /  30  30   5  70
Raton...........................  46  81  47  74 /  20  20   5  70
Springer........................  47  84  48  76 /  10  10   5  50
Las Vegas.......................  45  81  47  76 /   0   0   0  40
Clayton.........................  53  83  54  76 /  30  30   5  20
Roy.............................  51  82  51  75 /  10  20   0  40
Conchas.........................  56  91  56  84 /   5  10   0  10
Santa Rosa......................  55  89  55  83 /   5   0   0  10
Tucumcari.......................  55  89  55  83 /  10  10   0   5
Clovis..........................  58  89  57  87 /  10  10   0   0
Portales........................  58  91  57  89 /  10  10   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  58  92  57  89 /   5   5   0   5
Roswell.........................  60  98  61  99 /  10   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  57  89  58  91 /   5   0   0   0
Elk.............................  52  85  55  89 /   5   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....33
AVIATION...52