Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 260032

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
632 PM MDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.PREV DISCUSSION...530 PM MDT Wed Apr 25 2018...
Dry northwest flow aloft will maintain VFR conditions across the
region over the next 24 hours. Winds will be light and terrain driven
tonight. West to northwest winds will increase during the late
morning and early afternoon Thursday across western and central NM
with gusts of 15 to 20 knots. A backdoor cold front will move into
far northeast NM around 12Z Thursday and into east central NM
between 15Z and 17Z, reaching KROW around 19Z. Winds behind the front
will be from the north to northeast 10 to 20 knots with gusts to
around 25 knots.



.PREV DISCUSSION...330 PM MDT Wed Apr 25 2018...
Areas of smoke will continue to impact Catron County including
Glenwood and Reserve tonight and Thursday as northwest flow steers
the smoke from Arizona`s Rattlesnake Fire over that area. A windy
cold front will dive southwestward through the eastern plains on
Thursday with gusts around 50 mph across northeast areas, and a
slight chance of thunderstorms along the east slopes of the Sangre de
Cristo Mountains. An upper level low pressure system slowly crossing
the northern and central Rockies will draw moisture northwestward
over New Mexico this weekend. Showers and thunderstorms will impact
western areas Friday, before spreading to include central areas
Saturday, then shifting eastward across the eastern plains Saturday
night and Sunday. Breezy to windy conditions are expected on Sunday
as drier air wraps into the system and over New Mexico from the
southwest. A secondary upper level trough deepening over the Great
Basin will steer the jet stream over the state on Monday with even
stronger winds.


Residents in the Glenwood, Mogollon and Reserve area reported hazy
skies and the smell of smoke this afternoon. The smoke plume from the
Rattlesnake Fire is evident on satellite imagery crossing that area.
The HRRR Model`s Near-Surface Smoke product shows light to moderate
concentrations tracking over central and southwest Catron County from
the northwest tonight and Thursday (

An upper level trough will clip NE NM in NW flow aloft on Thursday.
It may trigger a few showers and thunderstorms along the east slopes
of the central mountain chain, especially around Raton Pass, but the
greater impact will be the windy cold front that it will send
southwestward into the state. Northeast wind gusts to 40 mph will be
common across the eastern plains on Thursday, except for gusts near
50 mph across the northeast highlands and plains along and east of

A moist low level south southeasterly return flow will be drawn into
the state Thursday night and Friday, with a mix of wet and dry
thunderstorms breaking out across western areas on Friday afternoon
in response to the aforementioned upper low over the Great Basin.
Models vary on how robust the moisture surge will be, with the GFS on
the wet side and the NAM and ECMWF on the drier side. The drier NAM
handled a similar moisture surge better than the GFS and ECMWF last
week, so this forecast package sides with the NAMs POPs and coverage
of precipitation moreso than the GFS for this weekend. If the NAM is
right again, our POPS could be a little too high.



A slightly more active weather pattern through the weekend will hold
off critical fire weather conditions for most areas until Sunday.

Winds will turn southerly tonight with very good humidity recoveries
for eastern NM and fair values across the west. Another back door
cold front will shift southwest through eastern NM Thursday with a
reinforcing shot of low level moisture westward, strong north winds,
and slightly below normal high temperatures. Widespread excellent
ventilation is expected. The front will move west through gaps in
the central mt chain Thursday night with another blast of canyon

Moisture is expected to make it farther into western NM behind the
next front through Friday. A weak shortwave ridge approaching from
the west Friday will allow some mid and upper level moisture to
slide north from Mexico during the afternoon. This will help fire up
a couple wet/dry showers along the Cont Dvd by late day. A few dry
lightning strikes are possible. Meanwhile, the remainder of the area
will remain near to slightly below normal with higher min humidity
and fair to good ventilation Friday.

A large upper level storm system is still shown by models to take
shape over the Great Basin over the weekend and allow increasing
south to southwest flow over NM. This will help advect even deeper
moisture northward and set the stage for a potentially more active
day of showers and storms Saturday within central and western NM.
Moisture levels appear favorable for larger wetting rainfall
footprints along with gusty outflow winds. Ventilation will improve
to excellent all areas.

The base of the upper trough will move into northern AZ Sunday and
spread much drier and windy conditions in western NM. Critical fire
weather conditions will be possible along and west of the Cont Dvd
by late afternoon. This may be problematic if any lightning strikes
hit the wrong area with little wetting rainfall. Meanwhile, the east
will see more showers and storms with severe weather possible.

The base of the upper trough doesn`t move much Monday and Tuesday
with widespread stronger southwest winds and very dry air sliding
over NM. This will increase potential for critical fire weather for
nearly the entire area.



Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 3 PM MDT Thursday for the following
zones... NMZ527-528-530-531.


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