Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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545
FXUS65 KABQ 150553
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1153 PM MDT Mon Oct 14 2019

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

No significant changes in the forecast reasoning for the 06Z TAF
package. All locations look to remain VFR with the main forecast
concern being the dry backdoor front moving down the Eastern Plains
in the 20Z-00Z time frame. This front will mainly bring gusty winds
and a windshift to TAF locations east of the Central Mountains as
well as KABQ/KSAF.

54/Fontenot



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...327 PM MDT Mon Oct 14 2019...
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak disturbance aloft will push east across New Mexico on
Tuesday. And while subtropical moisture will attempt to move north
toward the state, mostly dry conditions are expected to prevail
across northern and central parts of the Land of Enchantment. At the
surface, a cold front will invade eastern New Mexico Tuesday,
reducing temperatures slightly below normal, but remaining areas will
remain seasonable. The previously mentioned disturbance aloft will
move into Texas by Wednesday with dry conditions left behind in New
Mexico. Temperatures will creep above normal in much of the state,
but southeastern areas may still remain a few degrees below average.
Breezy to windy conditions will develop along and east of the central
mountain chain on Thursday and again on Friday with temperatures
rising above average, especially in the plains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Weak trough situated west of NM has H5 temps of -16 C in its core,
with a speed max aloft also rounding its base. Despite these
dynamics and the presence of increased subtropical moisture streaming
into southern Sonora and Chihuahua, the moisture is having a
difficult time being ingested into the feature or sufficiently ahead
of it. This will leave minimal prospects for precipitation or our
forecast area, just isolated to scattered storms over Socorro,
Lincoln, and southwestern Chaves counties through Tuesday afternoon.
Also, the low that will me moving toward MN/WI will send down a dry
cold front across the plains, and this is slated to invade eastern NM
Tuesday. Temperatures will fall back a few degrees below average as
the winds shift northerly.

The upper trough will be slowly steered southeastward into the
Permian Basin of west TX by Wednesday with any remnant scant
moisture within NM quickly vacating. This will open the door to
rising pressure heights in western NM and warmer temperatures for
many zones, except in SE NM where lingering effects of Tuesday`s
front will still be at work.

Southwesterlies aloft increase into Thursday, shifting more westerly
by Friday as progressive trough crosses the Rockies. A lee side
surface trough will also take shape, and efficient vertical mixing
should spread and transport the momentum induced by the strengthened
pressure gradient. Northeastern to east central NM will observe the
strongest gusts with temperatures also spiking on Thursday due to
downsloping. Readings will cool a few degrees in northwestern zones
Friday as the Pacific front overtakes, but the northeastern plains
will continue above average. Minimal precipitation is expected with
this frontal passage late Thursday into Friday.

A mostly dry weekend looks to be in store as progressive westerlies
send another longer wave trough toward the Rockies Saturday,
eventually crossing into the plains by Sunday. If any precipitation
does squeeze out of this system, it would likely fall over far
northern NM or into CO.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The recent warming trend will be interrupted across eastern NM
tomorrow thanks a backdoor front swinging in and bringing a N/NE
wind shift. As it does so, a weakening disturbance will traverse
over the state reducing ventilation with weak northerly transport
winds. Only a weak gap wind through the central mtn chain is
forecast as the backdoor front washes up to the east slopes of the
central mountain chain Tue night. The flow remains weak Wed
switching back out of the south over eastern NM.

Southwest flow trends stronger Thu as temperatures warm and will be
10-15F above normal over the Northeastern Plains allowing for
critical fire weather to be likely there Thu afternoon. By Fri winds
shift out of the west increasing in speed as well, however
temperatures will fall, reducing the potential for any critical fire
weather concerns. This system also has the potential to bring some
light precipitation focusing over the northwestern mountains and
increased cloud cover over the rest of the state Thu night into Fri.
As for the weekend, models are trending toward cooler and drier
conditions with a potent storm system passing by to the north of NM.
This weather pattern will lend to more breezy to windy conditions
over the state, unfortunately lacking in precipitation chances
except close to the CO border.

24/RJH

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

15



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