Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 222343

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
543 PM MDT Sat Sep 22 2018

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours with dry weather.
A suface trough in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains will
cause winds to become somewhat gusty across east central and
northeast areas on Sunday afternoon.



.PREV DISCUSSION...237 PM MDT Sat Sep 22 2018...
Dry high pressure over New Mexico will bring very pleasant weather
to the region through Monday. Temperatures will slowly warm above
normal before the next weather system moves across the area Tuesday.
A back door cold front is expected to surge southwest into eastern
New Mexico and into the Rio Grande Valley Tuesday night. The chance
for showers and thunderstorms will increase behind the front for much
of central and eastern New Mexico through Wednesday. Temperatures
will average 10 to 15 degrees below across the eastern half of New
Mexico Wednesday.


A 590dm H5 high center over southwestern NM early this morning will
flatten southward into northern Mexico as a broad upper level trough
slides east through the northern Rockies. Very pleasant weather will
continue through Monday night as dry zonal flow increases between
these two upper level features. Temperatures will warm above normal
for the entire area, especially the eastern plains where low 90s
will be common by Monday.

Surface high pressure will build down the Front Range in the wake of
the upper level trough over the northern Great Plains. A strong back
door cold front will surge southward into eastern NM Tuesday then
into the Rio Grande Valley Tuesday night. Moderate gap winds are
likely with the frontal passage in the Rio Grande Valley thru early
Wednesday. The 12Z GFS shows sufficient moisture and instability
immediately along the front for showers and storms Tuesday across
eastern NM. A cool and stable airmass with upslope flow in the wake
of the front will lead to widespread stratus, light rain, and fog
Tuesday night and Wednesday over the plains. Temperatures will be 10
to 15 degrees below normal in the east Wednesday afternoon.

The focus for convective precip will shift to the central mt chain
where more instability and surface convergence is present Wednesday
afternoon. PW values are forecast to rise to near 0.75" so some of
this activity may result in decent QPF amounts. A slow warming trend
is expected thru the remainder of the week as drier northwest flow
aloft transitions to the southwest.



Ridge of high pressure over NM will keep mostly dry conditions along
with slightly above average temperatures through Sunday. A weak
upper-level trough will slide east through Colorado Monday, bringing
an increase in west winds, clouds and a slight chance for a few
showers or sprinkles near the Colorado border. A relatively strong
backdoor cold front remains on track for Tuesday. Cooler conditons
along with increased chances for showers and storms move into
northeast NM Tuesday afternoon an evening and along and east of the
divide Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Weather prediction models have backed off on a secondary backdoor
front for Thursday and now agree that drying and warming will take
place Thursday and Friday.

Mostly fair to poor ventilation rates are forecast for Sunday,
improving significantly Monday.





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