Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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446 FXUS65 KABQ 070553 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1153 PM MDT Mon May 6 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 305 PM MDT Mon May 6 2024 Strong winds and critical fire weather conditions will be the story through Wednesday as an upper level low spins over the northern Rockies and Great Plains. A pattern change evolves Wednesday night into Thursday as a cutoff low develops over Utah pulling a cold front through eastern areas and through the gaps of the central mountain chain into the the Albuquerque Metro bringing an east wind Thursday morning. A cooler wetter pattern is expected over north central and northeast NM beginning Thursday afternoon. The east canyon wind across the Albuquerque Metro looks to be reinforced Thursday evening into Friday morning.Showers and storm coverage looks to expand a little more south and west Friday and then cover most of the forecast area Saturday as the low drifts southeast into the state. Conditions could possibly dry out Sunday if the low ends up exiting east, but overall confidence is low. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 305 PM MDT Mon May 6 2024 Gusty west winds will continue through the afternoon in the wake of last night`s Pacific cold front. Dewpoints will also continue tumbling through the afternoon, dropping into the single digits in many areas. Deeper afternoon mixing could help to kick up some dust as well in central and eastern areas, but widespread visibility reductions are unlikely. Winds will drop in the lower elevations overnight, but could remain gusty along the peaks of the Sangre de Cristo mountains where 700mb winds will be around 50kts through the night. Northern NM remains at the base of a broad trough Tuesday, allowing the strong zonal flow to continue. The strongest winds will occur in northern NM where a High Wind Watch was issued for tomorrow afternoon. Confidence was not high enough to go with a High Wind Warning given the huge disparity between model winds, but unidirectional flow and a deep boundary layer should promote efficient mixing of strong gusts down to the surface. Similar to today, skies will be mostly clear with hardly a cloud around. However, temperatures will warm about 10 degrees to within a few degrees of seasonal averages. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 305 PM MDT Mon May 6 2024 After a possible late season freeze up in the San Juan River Valley, including Farmington, and in far northeast NM around Raton, another day of gusty winds and critical fire weather conditions are expected across the region as an upper low continues spinning over the northern and central Rockies and adjacent Great Plains. There are some differences compared to Tuesday, in that winds will be touch lighter and peak earlier in the day across the northern mountains and northeast and central highlands as a shortwave rotating around the upper low and the resultant stronger 700 mb winds of 40 to 50 kts exits east come the afternoon hours. The area around Clines Corners to just south of Las Vegas could reach Wind Advisory criteria around midday Wednesday. A pattern change commences Wednesday night as the leading low of the eastern flank of the overall longwave trough progresses east towards the Great Lakes and the western back end of the longwave trough hangs back and develops into a cutoff low over Utah come Thursday morning. At the surface, this will send a backdoor front through eastern NM late Wednesday into early Thursday morning and through the gaps of the central mountain chain Thursday morning in the hours before sunrise. This will bring a moderate east canyon wind to the ABQ metro between 15 to 20 kts with gusts of up to 35 kts during the Thursday morning commute easing up a bit during the afternoon hours. The moisture behind this backdoor front is not impressive by any means with PWATS around 0.3 to 0.45 inches. This moisture and upslope flow along with CVA and lift ahead of the upper low and daytime heating will result in the development of scattered showers and storms over the northern mountains and adjacent highlands Thursday afternoon. This convection over north central and northeast NM along with the upper low still meandering over Utah will help to reinforce the east canyon wind across the ABQ metro Thursday evening into Friday morning. The 12Z guidance from the GFS MOS and ECX MOS guidance is awfully impressive Friday morning with sustained winds peaking at 35 and 38 kts, respectively. This would surely satisfy Wind Advisory criteria and possible meet High Wind Criteria, so this is something worth watching in subsequent forecast packages. Model differences begin to appear Friday with the placement with the upper low. The deterministic GFS and around 70% of its ensemble members having the low meandering towards the Four Corners region. On the other hand, the deterministic ECMWF and about 5o to 60 percent of its ensemble members have the low meandering southwest towards Las Vegas and northwest Arizona. A Rex Block will be in place on Friday with a upper level high over the Pacific NW and these blocking patterns are always low confidence . This will have downstream effects on the forecast (i.e. Saturday and Sunday). Anyways, the placement of shower/storm chances will either favor northwest NM in the case of the ECMWF or north central and northeast NM in the case of the GFS. On Saturday, the low starts to meander east with the GFS more progressive over northern NM and the ECMWF over northern AZ. Meanwhile, another upper level trough will move through the Great Lakes sending another backdoor cold front through eastern NM. This backdoor front will reinforce the return flow and moisture across eastern NM increasing PWATS to just under to around 0.75 inches. This will help to increase afternoon and evening shower and storm chances areawide. In terms of severe weather potential, it is extremely low due to a lack of instability and marginal moisture. The model differences mentioned on Friday show their impact on Sunday`s forecast with the deterministic GFS showing dry northwest flow in the wake of the weakening low/trough while the deterministic ECMWF keeping the upper low over Colorado and northern NM with another day of scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms. The ensembles are evenly split as well, so low confidence exists for the sensible weather on Sunday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1139 PM MDT Mon May 6 2024 Mostly clear and VFR conditions will prevail through the night and into Tuesday morning. Strong winds aloft will persist overnight, meaning some locations will experience low level wind shear in the transition zone a couple to a few thousand feet above ground. A few high level clouds may develop into the afternoon, but the bigger concern will be another round of strong to severe surface winds developing, particularly over the Sangre de Cristo mountains and surrounding highlands where gusts may reach 50-55kt. Mountain wave activity will also be likely near and east (downwind) of this area. Many other areas within the northern half of New Mexico will also observe high gusts of 35 to 45 kt, and areas of blowing dust could reduce visibility in some areas. Winds will relax after sunset Tuesday, but will still be brisk to breezy over higher elevation areas through Tuesday night. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 305 PM MDT Mon May 6 2024 ...FIRE GROWING PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY... Critical fire conditions are expected to continue through Wednesday afternoon. A broad trough will remain in place over the Intermountain West and High Plains, keeping dry zonal flow over New Mexico. Westerly wind gusts to 60 mph are possible again tomorrow afternoon in the upper Rio Grande Valley, northern mountains and adjacent highlands. Tomorrow will be even drier than today with widespread single-digit dewpoints and up to 10 hours of single digit RH along the lower Rio Grande Valley. Extreme fire weather conditions are likely for several hours during the afternoon below snowpack areawide Tuesday. Winds weaken somewhat Wednesday afternoon, but critical fire conditions will stick around along and east of the central mountain chain. Elevated conditions are expected across the central and western portions of the state where wind will be the limiting factor. A pattern change commences Thursday as a backdoor front surges in from the east, ushering in a cooler and more moist airmass. Precipitation chances will favor northern and eastern NM late week into the weekend as this airmass sticks around and fuels afternoon convection showers and storms. Gusty gap winds will could also impact locations on the Rio Grande Valley, including Albuquerque Thursday morning and again Friday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 35 69 32 61 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 26 64 25 60 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 30 68 29 59 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 29 70 27 64 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 32 67 32 62 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 30 72 29 65 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 33 71 36 67 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 41 76 42 72 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 36 72 39 68 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 30 77 35 75 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 44 79 46 78 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 26 59 24 55 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 39 67 39 62 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 36 68 37 62 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 34 60 33 56 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 27 57 27 54 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 25 58 23 52 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 27 66 27 61 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 34 66 34 62 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 37 75 38 69 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 37 69 38 64 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 35 73 37 67 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 44 77 46 71 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 41 78 44 73 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 40 80 44 76 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 41 79 44 72 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 38 82 41 77 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 42 79 43 72 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 38 81 41 76 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 41 79 43 73 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 38 81 41 76 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 43 75 43 67 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 41 79 43 72 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 45 87 47 83 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 40 69 40 63 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 39 72 41 67 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 36 73 38 67 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 33 75 36 70 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 35 70 38 63 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 39 74 41 70 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 38 75 42 71 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 46 79 49 77 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 43 71 47 70 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 34 68 32 64 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 35 71 33 67 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 36 73 36 67 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 37 71 38 65 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 39 78 39 72 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 39 75 39 71 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 42 83 45 77 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 40 79 45 73 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 43 83 44 77 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 46 84 49 80 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 44 85 50 83 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 43 84 49 80 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 50 91 55 88 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 45 82 50 80 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 43 80 49 79 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for NMZ101- 104>106-109-120>126. Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for NMZ104-122>126. High Wind Watch from 9 AM MDT Tuesday through Tuesday evening for NMZ210-213>216-223-227-229. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....71 AVIATION...52