Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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344
FXUS65 KABQ 242123
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
323 PM MDT Wed Jul 24 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 224 PM MDT Wed Jul 24 2024

Showers and thunderstorms have been a bit more subdued today
compared to earlier this month with generally isolated to
scattered activity favoring the northern and western mountains of
New Mexico. These showers and storms will continue to drift south
southwestward early this evening before coming to an end around
midnight. Storms will be most concentrated along and west of the
Continental Divide on Thursday. By Friday, moisture is expected to
pivot back into more of New Mexico, leading to an increase in
showers and storms, mainly over the western and northern mountains
once again. A slight reduction in storms is forecast into
Saturday with drier air then building into the state for the first
half of next week. This drier air will lead to much less
thunderstorm activity while temperatures increase a few degrees
above normal, reaching the 90`s in many locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 224 PM MDT Wed Jul 24 2024

Conditions so far this afternoon are pretty similar to this time
yesterday. Daytime heating has allowed a showers and storms to
develop across the northern and western mountains. Cloud and storm
motion is generally to the south southwest due to the 598 dam
monsoon high being centered near Las Vegas, NV. Very few high based
fair weather cumulus clouds have developed across eastern NM due to
very dry mid level air and PWATs around 0.5 inches. Skies across
this part of the state and central NM are hazier than yesterday due
to more smoke dispersing south from the wildfires over western
Canada. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue to
move south and southwest through outflow boundaries into lower
elevations across western NM along and south of I-40, north central
NM and the central and south central highlands this evening. Ruidoso
could see a stray storm late this afternoon and early evening, but
chances are low due to the very dry mid level air just to it`s east.
Any showers and storms across north central and southwest NM quickly
dissipate around sunset due to the loss of daytime heating with
clearing and hazy skies overnight as another area of higher
smoke/haze concentration moves south into northeast and central NM.

Some subtle changes occur on Thursday. An unseasonably deep ~ 560 dam
upper low will be moving through British Columbia and this will
result in the upper high to be flattened and stretched northeast to
over the northern Great Plains. This change in the upper level
pattern will help to reduce the haze across central and eastern NM.
Some higher mid level moisture from Arizona will also move into
western and parts of central NM. This will result in a slightly
higher coverage of diurnal showers and storms along and west of the
central mountain chain with better chances for Farmington and Gallup
compared to today. Like today, drier mid level air will be over
eastern NM and storm motion will be to the south southwest. This
will keep most storms west of the HPCC burn scar and the dry mid
level air east of Ruidoso will really help to limit afternoon and
early evening shower and storm chances once again for the burn scars
surrounding the village. Showers and storms across central and
western NM dissipate come sunset with activity lingering longest
near the Arizona border. Mid level clouds linger across western NM
heading into Friday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 224 PM MDT Wed Jul 24 2024

While a deep upper level low moves out of Alberta and into
Saskatchewan, Canada on Friday southwesterly flow should increase
over more of the northwestern U.S., hopefully leading to a
transport of smoke and haze away from NM. Another weak and dry low
will move off of the Pacific into CA, helping nudge high pressure
farther south southwestward of AZ in a more weakened state. This
will be sufficient for moisture to wrap back into more of western
and central NM, and PWATs are advertised to climb to 0.9 to 1.1
inch which should lead to an uptick in storm coverage Friday
afternoon and evening. Many of the western and central NM zones
that gain moisture will still retain somewhat of a westerly
surface wind component, and this isn`t necessarily expected to be
much of an aide to convective initiation, but numerous cells
should still develop on the western and northern high country
before slowly rolling south southeastward. There is also a
convectively induced shortwave that is modeled to roll out of
southeastern CO and into northeastern and eventually central to
east central NM Friday evening.

By Saturday, the upper high will stay fairly weak and centered
near or offshore of the Baja peninsula with a residual ridge axis
extending over NM. Remnant and recycled moisture from Friday`s
intrusion should be enough to keep scattered storms going again on
Saturday, focused mainly over the western and central high
terrain, including a possible slight uptick around the south
central mountains. Storms would still drift southward at sluggish
paces, and temperatures will be seasonable.

Into Sunday, Monday and Tuesday the high will build back toward NM
and strengthen. This will allow much drier air to push into
northern NM while the deeper moisture stays on the southern
periphery of the high and into AZ. This will limit storm chances
for us, and with the 500 mb heights rising (reaching 596-598
decameters per the GFS) the temperatures will also rise above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1126 AM MDT Wed Jul 24 2024

Isolated to scattered showers and storms containing localized MVFR
ceilings and visibilities along with gusty and erratic winds will
develop over the northern and western mountains early this
afternoon moving to the southwest heading into the evening hours.
This motion should allow showers and storms to miss most of the
major western and central TAF sites with KSAF possibly being the
one exception. Outflow from possible storms over the Sandia and
Manzano winds could bring another gusty east wind to KABQ around
00Z to 01Z. SKC over eastern TAF sites due to the very dry
midlevel air. Showers and storms across western and central NM
dissipate around sunset with clearing skies overnight. Haze from
western Canada wildfire smoke is likely from the Rio Grande Valley
eastward today, but significant visibility restrictions at the
sfc are unlikely.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 224 PM MDT Wed Jul 24 2024

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the forecast
period. Afternoon showers and storms through the end of the week
will favor areas along and west of the central mtn chain with
coverage highest on Friday, lowering a touch Saturday, and
especially come Sunday as the monsoon high moves overhead. With
this, temperatures increase and minimum relative humidity lower
heading into next week. Winds will be light outside of gusty outflow
winds from nearby showers and storms. Isolated instances of flash
flooding are possible, especially over recent burn scars, with the
risk highest Friday and Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  66  97  67  93 /   5   5  20   5
Dulce...........................  51  91  51  87 /  20  20  20  40
Cuba............................  57  89  58  87 /  10  20  30  40
Gallup..........................  55  93  57  89 /   5  20  30  30
El Morro........................  56  85  56  82 /  10  50  50  50
Grants..........................  59  90  60  86 /  10  20  30  50
Quemado.........................  58  88  58  85 /  20  60  50  50
Magdalena.......................  62  87  63  85 /  10  20  10  40
Datil...........................  56  84  56  82 /  20  50  30  60
Reserve.........................  57  92  56  88 /  30  60  40  50
Glenwood........................  65  94  67  92 /  50  70  50  40
Chama...........................  49  83  51  79 /  20  30  20  50
Los Alamos......................  61  86  62  83 /  20  30  10  50
Pecos...........................  54  84  58  84 /  10  50  10  40
Cerro/Questa....................  49  84  49  82 /  10  20  10  50
Red River.......................  45  75  47  73 /  20  20  10  50
Angel Fire......................  39  78  41  76 /  20  30   5  50
Taos............................  50  88  53  85 /  10  10   5  30
Mora............................  49  81  51  81 /  10  30   5  40
Espanola........................  59  94  62  91 /  20  10  10  30
Santa Fe........................  60  87  62  86 /  10  30  20  40
Santa Fe Airport................  58  90  61  89 /  10  10  10  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  67  93  68  90 /  10  20  20  40
Albuquerque Heights.............  67  95  67  92 /  10  10  10  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  66  97  67  94 /  10   5  10  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  66  95  68  93 /  10   5  20  20
Belen...........................  64  96  65  94 /   5   5  10  20
Bernalillo......................  64  97  67  93 /  10  10  20  20
Bosque Farms....................  63  96  64  93 /  10  10  10  20
Corrales........................  64  96  67  94 /  10  10  20  20
Los Lunas.......................  63  96  66  94 /  10   5  10  20
Placitas........................  64  92  64  90 /  20  10  10  30
Rio Rancho......................  65  95  67  93 /  10  10  20  20
Socorro.........................  68  97  67  96 /  10  10  10  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  60  86  62  85 /  10  20  10  40
Tijeras.........................  62  88  62  87 /  10  20  10  40
Edgewood........................  57  89  56  87 /  10  20  10  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  51  89  52  88 /  10  20  10  30
Clines Corners..................  56  85  56  83 /  10  30   5  30
Mountainair.....................  58  87  59  87 /  10  20  10  30
Gran Quivira....................  58  87  59  87 /  10  20  10  30
Carrizozo.......................  63  91  63  89 /  10  10   5  10
Ruidoso.........................  55  82  57  82 /   5  10   0  20
Capulin.........................  54  84  55  84 /   0   0   0  10
Raton...........................  53  89  55  89 /   5   0   0  10
Springer........................  52  90  56  89 /   5   5   0  10
Las Vegas.......................  51  84  54  83 /  10  20   0  30
Clayton.........................  61  92  62  91 /   0   0   0   5
Roy.............................  57  88  59  87 /   0   0   0  10
Conchas.........................  61  95  64  95 /   0   0   0   5
Santa Rosa......................  61  91  62  92 /   5   0   0  10
Tucumcari.......................  61  95  64  94 /   0   0   0   5
Clovis..........................  63  93  65  94 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  63  94  65  94 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  63  95  65  95 /   0   0   0   5
Roswell.........................  67  98  69  99 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  61  92  62  92 /   0   0   0   5
Elk.............................  57  90  59  88 /   0   5   0   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...71