Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 211137 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
537 AM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
Scattered thunderstorm coverage is expected this afternoon and
evening, primarily in a swath from southwest to northeast across the
state. The northwest third however, including KFMN and KGUP, will
remain storm free as dry mid-level air wins out. Storm motion is
forecast to be light and variable. Brief MVFR conditions and gusty
outflow winds will accompany the stronger storms. The swath of storms
is expected to move southeastward across eastern NM during the
evening, diminishing slowly after sunset.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...231 AM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019...
.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will develop again this afternoon with
greater coverage compared to Tuesday. The greatest chances will be
east of the Continental Divide, however the best shot for heavy
rainfall will be over eastern New Mexico. Drier air will move into
the western half of New Mexico Thursday and Friday while isolated
storms still impact eastern New Mexico. Record heat will return to
the entire region Friday through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Deeper moisture shifted west to the Cont Divide overnight. The 00Z
PWAT at KABQ was 0.83" which is normal for mid to late August. Moist
instability will peak today within central and eastern NM where an
axis of showers and storms with locally heavy rainfall is expected.
Favored areas will stretch from the Gila region northeast across the
Rio Grande Valley into northeastern NM. Storm motion will be slow to
the southeast today. Convective mode will transition from discrete
terrain-driven cells to clusters and line segments as activity moves
into eastern NM. The 00Z HREF indicates storms will linger well into
the evening from the ABQ metro area eastward across the eastern
plains.

Drier air will move back into the western half of NM Thursday and
Friday as a 700-500mb high center takes shape over southern Arizona.
Very dry air currently in place over the Great Basin will shift
southeastward into NM on the northern periphery of the high center.
Convective activity will be mostly shut down west of the central mt
chain. Isolated storms are still expected along and east of the
central mt chain Thursday and Friday where enough low level moisture
remains in place to continue recycling mode.

Another exasperating, untimely, grueling heat wave will redevelop
Friday through early next week as a potent upper level ridge sprawls
eastward from the Great Basin. 700mb temps warm to near +20C which
is near 3 stdev above climatology. Strong warm advection along with
unseasonably dry air will lead to record high temperatures for many
areas, especially the period from Sunday to Tuesday. The ABQ Sunport
has a decent shot at 100F early next week, which will be the 2nd
latest 100F reading on record. More heat advisories are possible for
Chaves County where highs around 105F are expected again for several
days. Roswell is also looking more likely to end up with the hottest
August on record.

Guyer

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Scattered thunderstorm coverage is forecast for this afternoon
except over west-central and northwest portions of the state where
dry air is forecast to win out. Drier air continues pushing in from
the west on Thursday and Friday, limiting afternoon convection to
isolated along and east of the central mountain chain. A hot and dry
weekend is in store areawide with a backdoor cold front expected to
bring a return of afternoon showers and thunderstorms to the east
Tuesday and to most areas Wednesday into late next week. Near record
to record heat is forecast for much of the state early next week
ahead of the backdoor front.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

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