Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 101801 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1101 AM MST Mon Dec 10 2018

Areas of IFR conditions will persist into the afternoon across the
northwest plateau (including FMN) and the Pecos River valley of
Chaves County (including ROW). Meanwhile, high clouds will increase
in coverage across the forecast area this afternoon. The high clouds
should be thick enough to prevent another widespread IFR event across
the northwest plateau tonight, and potentially also over southeast
areas. However, models depict enough low level saturation for low
clouds and fog to produce another round of IFR conditions along and
south of the Caprock, and along and east of the Pecos River valley
late this evening until mid morning Tuesday.



.PREV DISCUSSION...249 AM MST Mon Dec 10 2018...
A ridge of high pressure will move overhead today, making it tough
for areas of fog to clear out and for valley areas to warm up.
Increasing high clouds over western and central New Mexico will also
make for a slow warm up. Temperatures warm up Tuesday, especially
east as the high shifts east and west winds kick in across eastern
areas. A dry cold front is forecast for Wednesday, resulting in
cooler temperatures for northern and western NM while the east
remains mild. A reinforcing cold front is forecast to bring cooler
air to all areas Wednesday night and Thursday along with a chance
for light snow to the eastern half of the state mainly Thursday
morning. High pressure and a warming trend remain on tap for Friday.


High amplitude ridge building in from the west early this morning.
The associated warm air aloft will continue to result in decreasing
boundary layer depth and result in strong temperature inversions and
at least patchy freezing fog formation in valley locations through
the morning. Any freezing fog that does develop will be slow to
dissipate with 700mb temperatures warming to near +4C by afternoon.
Mid and high clouds move in late-day/tonight and temperatures aloft
cool so new fog formation should be tough to come by tonight. A lee
trough develops tonight and Tuesday, resulting in an increase in west
and southwest winds east of the central mountain chain. These west
winds will allow the east to warm 3 to 8 degrees or so above
Monday`s readings.

Models now settling on a solution for Tuesday, splitting an incoming
short-wave trough in two with not much impact on NM outside of mid
and high clouds and brisk west winds for eastern areas. The next
upper trough slides southeastward toward NM Wednesday but the GFS and
ECWMF still at odds as to exactly where. The GFS now keeps the
trough farther east and more of a glancing wind producer whereas the
farther west ECWMF would result in widespread light snow for much of
eastern NM late Wedesday night into Thursday morning. Sided more in
line with the ECWMF solution as its 51 member ensemble mean is in
good agreement with the operational run. Still anticipating plenty of
wind Wednesday night and Thursday but not quite what the GFS is

GFS and ECWMF agree that a broad upper-level ridge will move over for
Friday and Friday night. Ridge shifts east of the state Saturday with
the models now at odds with what happens thereafter. Interestingly,
the ECMWF continues to develop a relatively deep closed low
over/near Catalina Island on Monday of next week. Does this low
pinwheel around northern Baja or move east and impact NM early next
week? Based on the lack of run to run model consistency this past
week or so, confidence in the movement of such a feature this far
out is very low.



A dirty ridge will transition east over the area today leading to
some warming, but with stubborn temperature inversions and poor
ventilation. More warming is forecast on Tuesday despite increasing
clouds and partially due to downslope winds across eastern New
Mexico. Temperatures will continue above normal Wednesday with
improved ventilation due to increasing winds as a potent northern
stream trough and associated cold front dive southeast into Colorado
and northern New Mexico. Strong winds, both ahead of and behind the
cold front, will spread over the area Wednesday night and continue
into Thursday. Limited chances for wetting precipitation will
accompany the trough passage Wednesday night into early Thursday and
be confined to the northern mountains and northeast. Temperatures
behind the front on Thursday will be below normal most areas.

The 00Z medium range model solutions differ significantly beyond
Thursday, leading to a lower confidence forecast. However, look for
some warming to end the work-week and going into the weekend with a
return to mostly poor vent rates.





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