Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
104 FXUS65 KABQ 280555 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1155 PM MDT Thu Mar 27 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1140 PM MDT Thu Mar 27 2025 - Isolated showers and dry thunderstorms will decrease heading into the evening. - Southwest and west winds will strengthen for Friday and each day onward with patchy areas of critical fire weather conditions forecast each day. This will increase the risk of rapid fire spread. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 320 PM MDT Thu Mar 27 2025 The threat of dry thunderstorms and virga decreases going into the evening. Drier and breezier conditions over the next several days will elevate the risk of fire threat for certain areas along eastern New Mexico. A few storm systems over the central Rockies may bring in some light precipitation for the northern mountains along the Colorado border. Wind speeds look to pick up near the middle of next week. Overall, temperatures will be around normal for most areas this weekend and heading into next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 320 PM MDT Thu Mar 27 2025 A poorly-defined upper level trough near the Permian Basin today will continue drifting east away from NM tonight. A notable moisture increase with this system trended Precipitable Water (PW) values to between 0.50" and 0.70" across southeast NM. Surface dewpoints range from the upper 10s over western NM to the 40s and lower 50s across the southeast plains. Cells across central NM will remain high-based thru late afternoon then dissipate quickly around sunset. Activity farther east has been wetter with a few cells producing up to 0.10" to 0.25" around Ruidoso. Radar estimates indicated very localized amounts up to 0.5" in some of the slow-moving cells between Corona and Vaughn. The drier cells will be capable of producing downburst wind gusts in excess of 45mph with blowing dust and low visibility possible. The brief appearance of showers and storms today will end this evening as the drier air over western NM continues to move east toward the plains. Most showers will end by 9pm followed by remnant mid level cloud cover overnight. Min temps will be above normal again across central and eastern NM while readings trend a few degrees cooler across the west with clear skies and stronger thermal inversions. Friday will be much drier with increasing west/southwest winds. The next system approaching from the Great Basin has trended a little slower and thus delays the development of a deeper lee-side trough and the subsequent stronger winds. Overall, most of the day will be quite pleasant with max temps rising 10 to 15F above normal again in most areas. Cirrus will likely increase from west to east thru the day, signaling the approach of the next shortwave trough entering the Great Basin. These high clouds along with persistent breezes around the high terrain and nearby plains will keep min temps above normal again Friday night. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 320 PM MDT Thu Mar 27 2025 More high clouds will stream in from western New Mexico on Saturday as another slightly deeper shortwave trough crosses through the intermountain west. Guidance for wind speeds has once again trended downwards for Saturday afternoon, reducing the risk of critical fire weather conditions to patchy areas along the central highlands. However, with a tightening pressure gradient aloft and a 994 to 998 mb sfc low developing along the Colorado-Kansas border, winds throughout the state will get pretty breezy at 15 to 25 kts. Stronger 700 mb winds of 45 kts will lead to some more robust gusts along the southern mountains and adjacent highlands. A second reinforcing trough on Sunday will bring in another round of gusty westerlies for many of the same areas. New Mexico will be under a dual-flank frontal assault during the afternoon, as the pacific front pushes through from the west and a backdoor cold front associated with Saturday`s system makes its way through the northeast. The strongest winds will be along the pacific front as it crosses through the central mountain chain. Thirty to forty knot 700 mb winds will once again aid in creating gustier conditions for areas in the central highlands. Temperatures will cool slightly with the passage of these fronts. Western areas will see average to below average temperatures, while the rest of New Mexico will be at or just above normal for this time of year. Slight ridging builds on Monday, leading to more stable conditions with lighter winds and warmer temperatures. Model solutions begin to diverge greatly past Monday, so forecast confidence drops significantly. However, most ensembles including the GEPS have trended towards more of a troughing pattern for the middle of next week. Ensemble cluster analysis would seem to indicate that solutions showing the development of a ridge (such as the one shown by the deterministic GFS) are more of an outlier, with only 15 percent of members agreeing on this outcome. Therefore, there is higher confidence for a windier and more disturbed environment for Tuesday through Thursday. The ECMWF hints at much more robust storm system developing during the middle of the week, bringing more widespread rain and cooler temperatures. But that remains to be seen as confidence is low for this late in the forecast. For now, higher confidence in wind speeds building up on Tuesday afternoon, leading to increased critical fire weather conditions. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1140 PM MDT Thu Mar 27 2025 Late tonight into early Friday morning, low clouds may again produce MVFR conditons in the lower Pecos River Valley around Roswell and farther east as far north as the Caprock, including Clovis and Portales. Confidence is lower than last night, since model output statistics aren`t depicting lower ceilings, but low level humidity progs indicate another round of low clouds is coming. Models have been known to under forecast the return flow of low level moisture when there is an upper level trough digging into the western US, which is the case tonight, so we will keep an eye on it and update the KROW TAF as soon as confidence gets high enough that low clouds will develop there. Otherwise, southwest winds will become breezy on Friday afternoon until sunset with peak gusts reaching up to 35 KT at KGUP, KLVS, and KSRR. Friday evening there is a 15-25 percent chance of rain showers and high terrain snow showers developing around Chama, Dulce, Cuba, and Farmington. Isolated showers may reach as far south and east as the Jemez and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 320 PM MDT Thu Mar 27 2025 ...LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... Showers and storms have developed today across the higher terrain south and east of Albuquerque. This activity is mostly high-based with strong downburst winds and dry lightning strikes expected. A mixture of wet/dry cells is likely farther to the southeast toward Vaughn and Corona with even some wet cells possible across the far east-central plains. Dry air moving back into the region tonight will lead to borderline poor/fair recoveries across western NM and good to excellent recoveries across the far eastern plains. Forecast changes continue to emerge Friday through Sunday in favor of decreasing coverage of critical fire weather. Several hours of patchy critical conditions are still expected in the area stretching from near Socorro northeastward to Vaughn and Las Vegas Friday. The wind is the limiting factor but minimum humidity remains subcritical with many areas as low as 10%. Winds have also decreased Saturday and Sunday while min humidity remains subcritical below 8,000 ft. If these trends also continue, the overall coverage of critical fire weather will remain patchy through the weekend. Overnight humidity recoveries leading into Saturday morning and Sunday morning will be borderline poor/fair in most areas, except the northern high terrain where slightly better moisture and cooler temps are likely. The overall breezy to windy and dry pattern may continue into early next week. However, given the recent changes, the overall forecast confidence is low to moderate at this time on critical conditions Monday and/or Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 41 71 39 65 / 0 10 20 0 Dulce........................... 32 70 29 61 / 0 10 30 5 Cuba............................ 36 71 33 61 / 0 5 10 0 Gallup.......................... 32 69 27 62 / 0 5 0 0 El Morro........................ 36 67 31 58 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 31 73 29 64 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 36 70 32 61 / 0 5 0 0 Magdalena....................... 45 74 40 65 / 5 0 0 0 Datil........................... 38 69 35 61 / 5 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 32 73 32 67 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 37 78 39 71 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 31 63 28 54 / 0 5 30 5 Los Alamos...................... 46 69 39 61 / 0 0 5 0 Pecos........................... 39 69 39 61 / 5 0 5 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 36 67 32 59 / 0 0 5 0 Red River....................... 27 61 25 49 / 0 0 5 5 Angel Fire...................... 23 63 29 55 / 5 0 5 5 Taos............................ 31 71 32 62 / 0 0 5 0 Mora............................ 34 69 36 62 / 5 0 5 0 Espanola........................ 40 77 38 69 / 0 0 5 0 Santa Fe........................ 44 70 39 62 / 5 0 10 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 42 74 38 66 / 0 0 5 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 51 78 47 68 / 5 5 5 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 49 79 46 70 / 5 5 5 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 46 81 45 73 / 5 0 5 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 46 79 45 71 / 5 0 5 0 Belen........................... 44 82 42 73 / 5 0 5 0 Bernalillo...................... 46 80 44 72 / 0 0 5 0 Bosque Farms.................... 44 81 43 73 / 5 0 5 0 Corrales........................ 44 80 45 72 / 0 0 5 0 Los Lunas....................... 44 81 44 72 / 5 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 48 76 44 67 / 0 5 5 0 Rio Rancho...................... 47 79 44 71 / 0 0 5 0 Socorro......................... 51 84 46 76 / 5 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 45 71 40 63 / 5 5 10 5 Tijeras......................... 41 74 42 65 / 5 5 10 5 Edgewood........................ 40 74 39 66 / 5 0 5 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 34 75 37 67 / 5 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 41 71 39 63 / 10 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 43 74 40 66 / 10 0 5 0 Gran Quivira.................... 41 73 41 66 / 10 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 48 76 47 70 / 10 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 44 70 47 63 / 20 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 40 73 39 63 / 10 0 0 0 Raton........................... 37 76 38 68 / 5 0 0 0 Springer........................ 36 77 40 69 / 5 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 39 73 39 66 / 10 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 47 81 48 73 / 10 0 0 0 Roy............................. 42 78 43 69 / 20 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 47 84 49 76 / 20 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 44 81 48 72 / 20 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 51 85 49 77 / 20 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 48 84 49 80 / 10 0 0 0 Portales........................ 48 83 48 80 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 48 84 48 77 / 20 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 52 88 51 84 / 20 5 0 0 Picacho......................... 46 81 49 76 / 20 0 0 0 Elk............................. 46 79 48 74 / 20 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...44 Please note: The SYNOPSIS section will be terminated on or about Friday, April 4.