Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 192023
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
223 PM MDT Sun May 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
An active weather pattern still expected through next weekend.
There will be rain, mountain snow, thunderstorms, which could be
strong to severe near the TX border, lots of wind and cool
temperatures for May. The first storm will impact us into Tuesday,
while the second one interacts with NM Wednesday into Thursday.
After that, the main trough position will be to our west, providing
moist southwest winds aloft and southerly winds at the surface. The
main weather threat from Thursday through next weekend will be the
formation of a dryline on the eastern plains, with the potential for
strong to severe storms each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Lots of mid and high clouds across the forecast area today, holding
down temperatures some, as well as the wind. The next storm to impact
NM has moved into CA. It will move to the Great Basin tonight and
the four corners region by late Monday. From there it will move east
along the NM/CO border and begin to intensify, finally turning
northeast into southeast CO Tuesday, still deepening to a 541DM low.
We will experience rain, mountain snow, thunderstorms which could
turn strong to severe later tonight near the TX border, strong winds,
and well below normal temperatures Monday and Tuesday, especially in
the west.

We will leave the High Wind Watch as is, with the thinking much of
the highlighted area will only see wind advisory speeds Monday. Other
areas will need wind advisories as well Monday. Of more concern will
be the winds on Tuesday in the east, as the upper low and surface
low pressure plummet to around 540dm and 980mb, respectively. Much of
the northeast and east central areas could experience high winds.
Surrounding areas may need wind advisories Tuesday. As for snow,
snow levels will be around 7500 feet in the west Monday, 8000 to
8500 feet Monday across the northern mountains. Levels will drop
sharply Monday night. Significant snow accumulations will be fairly
high up, 8500 feet or higher, with a couple/few of inches below 8500
feet.

The next storm will come into the Pacific Northwest Monday night and
be over the Great Basin Tuesday. From there it will drift south, with
a portion of the trough lifting northeast late Wednesday into
Thursday. Precipitation will not be as widespread as the first storm.
Windy and below normal temperatures will continue.

Southwest flow aloft with a persistent trough/closed low to our west
will remain through next weekend. This pattern could result in daily
rounds of thunderstorms on the eastern plains as a dryline sloshes
back and forth. Severe weather would not be out of the question.

CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An active and windy weather pattern will persist through the week.
This afternoon, and continuing each afternoon through Thursday, will
see a combination of critically low humidities and strong winds
along and east of Interstate 25 and along and south of Interstate
40. Over portions of this same area, fair to poor overnight humidity
recoveries will be featured tonight as well as Tuesday night and
Thursday night. High temperatures will range from near to below
normal this week.

Forecast models indicate an unseasonably cool storm system will
track farther south over New Mexico Monday through Monday night,
bringing better potential for wetting precipitation over the
northwest half of the state and along the eastern New Mexico border.
The northern mountains above 8000 feet may pick up several inches of
snow from this system. As this system exits into the Great Plains
Tuesday, it could potentially result in widespread very strong winds
across the eastern New Mexico plains. Spotty showers and storms will
again be focused over the northwest and north central Tuesday and
Tuesday night. Another system Wednesday/Wednesday night looks to
spread at least meager precipitation over the northwest third of the
region and spark a few dryline storms near the Texas border. With a
trough to our west and ridge of high pressure over the southeastern
US persisting through the end of this week, low level moisture will
slosh back and forth along the eastern New Mexico border, while
periods of drier southwest winds alternating with ejecting
disturbances dominate western and central New Mexico.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Upper low moving into the Great Basin with considerable mid to high
clouds spread over NM. Strengthening s-swly flow aloft to mix down,
resulting in gusty s-swly surface winds to around 40kt aft 19Z.
Surface winds to diminish somewhat aft 03Z but resume rapidly aft
20/15Z. Isold showers with brief MVFR cigs obscuring mt tops are
possible along the nw NM/CO border but convection and mt
obscurations becoming more widespread over nw/west central NM aft
20/06Z as the upper low center of circulation dives into nrn AZ.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  43  54  38  59 /  40  60  50  20
Dulce...........................  37  54  32  53 /  40  70  70  50
Cuba............................  41  56  34  55 /  10  60  60  30
Gallup..........................  39  51  32  57 /  20  50  40   5
El Morro........................  37  49  31  54 /   5  50  40   5
Grants..........................  38  55  33  59 /   0  50  40   5
Quemado.........................  40  52  32  59 /   0  40  30   5
Glenwood........................  45  60  36  69 /   0  30  20   0
Chama...........................  33  50  29  48 /  40  70  70  50
Los Alamos......................  47  59  37  57 /  10  40  50  20
Pecos...........................  43  60  35  56 /  10  20  40  10
Cerro/Questa....................  39  57  32  51 /  20  40  50  30
Red River.......................  34  52  28  44 /  30  40  50  40
Angel Fire......................  33  54  30  46 /  20  30  50  30
Taos............................  38  59  32  55 /  20  30  50  20
Mora............................  39  59  34  54 /  20  20  40  10
Espanola........................  47  65  39  63 /   5  20  40  10
Santa Fe........................  46  59  37  57 /  10  30  50  20
Santa Fe Airport................  44  63  37  62 /   5  20  40  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  51  64  40  67 /   0  20  40   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  51  66  41  68 /   0  20  30   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  51  68  42  70 /   0  20  30   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  51  66  42  68 /   0  20  30   5
Los Lunas.......................  47  68  40  70 /   0  10  20   5
Rio Rancho......................  50  66  42  68 /   0  20  40   5
Socorro.........................  50  70  43  76 /   0   5  10   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  46  61  36  61 /   5  20  40   5
Tijeras.........................  47  62  38  64 /   5  20  40   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  41  64  36  65 /   5   5  30   5
Clines Corners..................  45  61  35  61 /   5   5  20   5
Gran Quivira....................  48  64  37  66 /   0   5  10   5
Carrizozo.......................  53  68  40  69 /   0   5   5   0
Ruidoso.........................  45  63  36  62 /   5   5   5   5
Capulin.........................  42  66  35  61 /  20  10  20  10
Raton...........................  42  68  37  63 /  10  10  10  10
Springer........................  45  68  39  63 /  10  10  10   5
Las Vegas.......................  42  63  37  60 /  10  10  20   5
Clayton.........................  50  73  43  70 /  30  40  20   5
Roy.............................  48  69  41  64 /  20  10   5   5
Conchas.........................  55  79  49  75 /  20  10   5   5
Santa Rosa......................  53  76  45  72 /  10  10   5   5
Tucumcari.......................  57  82  50  77 /  30  30   5   0
Clovis..........................  54  80  46  74 /  40  30  10   0
Portales........................  55  82  47  76 /  40  20  10   0
Fort Sumner.....................  56  79  48  75 /  20  10   0   0
Roswell.........................  55  85  49  80 /  10   5   0   0
Picacho.........................  51  75  44  71 /   5   5   0   0
Elk.............................  49  70  40  67 /   0   5   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for
the following zones... NMZ525-526-538>540.

&&

$$

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