Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 240522 AAC
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1022 PM MST Sun Feb 23 2020

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
Conditions are clearing this evening with low clouds clinging onto
west-facing slopes along the continental divide and the central
mountain chain. Therefore, cannot entirely rule out a brief period of
MVFR cigs at KSAF to KABQ. Meanwhile, winds have trended weaker
across the eastern plains and LLWS will become a concern as surface
winds weaken. Clearer skies are expected tomorrow with a return of
stronger WNW/NW winds in the afternoon.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...933 PM MST Sun Feb 23 2020...
.UPDATE...
As precipitation has shifted eastward into the TX/OK Panhandles and
winds have weakened below advisory level at Clayton and is expected
to continue to trend weaker, have cancelled both the Winter Weather
Advisory for Raton Pass and Wind Advisory Union and Harding
Counties.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...147 PM MST Sun Feb 23 2020...
.SYNOPSIS...
Upper low and trough are crossing NM this afternoon, as well as
surface cold fronts, one has crossed NM from the west and the other
is moving through the northeast portion of the state. This second
front will continue south tonight with gusty winds behind it. Snow
will also be of concern in the northeast, mainly around Raton Pass.
Dry and milder conditions are expected Monday. A back door cold
front will dip into the northeast late Monday, then move south and
west Monday night, followed by another, colder back door front in
the east Tuesday. Much colder air will pour into the state, as well
as some snow in the northeast. It will be dry Wednesday into next
weekend with a general warming trend.

CHJ

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
Upper low crossing New Mexico today and as it moves into Oklahoma,
strong northwest winds will develop over northeast New Mexico this
evening. Model guidance still indicating winds will blow at or above
wind advisory speeds over Union and Harding counties this evening
then decrease after midnight. Therefore no changes to the current
wind advisory and not anticipating any changes to the current winter
weather advisory either. Showers and isolated storms to diminish
during the evening, but there appears to be plenty of low level
moisture lingering through the overnight, especially with the
northwest flow into the western and central mountains, so don`t see
it clearing out so quickly for those areas.

Another cold front to pass southward through the eastern plains
Monday afternoon/evening then a stronger one is expected Tuesday.
Gusty northwest winds to develop Monday afternoon, and favored areas
such as Clines Corners may require another wind advisory. While
temperatures Monday will be within a few degrees of normal, Monday
night`s lows will be about 5-10 degrees colder than average.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
Tuesday will be much colder, especially in the east where a second
surge of chilly air will move through from the north. There will be a
little snow from the east slopes of the Sangres to the northeast
corner of the state. Tuesday night will be dry but cold, the coldest
since early in the month.

Wednesday into the weekend will be dry under northwest flow through
Thursday, then a building ridge of high pressure Friday into
Saturday. Temperatures will generally warm every day into the
weekend. Highs will still be below normal Wednesday, then near normal
Thursday and Friday, and climbing above normal for the weekend. A
weak back door cold front may halt the warming briefly on Friday in
the east. A weak trough may bring light precipitation to the
northwest Sunday.

CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Upper low crossing New Mexico today and as it moves into Oklahoma,
strong northwest winds will develop over northeast New Mexico this
evening. Overall winds should diminish after midnight tonight but
will return on Monday afternoon over the western and central high
terrain and adjacent highlands while another cold front pushes
southward into northeast New Mexico. Yet another bout of strong wind
is likely across eastern New Mexico Tuesday, and will be associated
with another, stronger cold front. Monday afternoon`s strong winds
may result in a brief period of marginal critical fire weather
conditions over the East Central Plains. This afternoon`s showers
and isolated thunderstorms should decrease as the upper low exits.

Winds to relax mid to late this week with dry weather and near to
above average warmth as an upper ridge passes over the state early
in the weekend. Consequently, ventilation will be good to excellent
Monday and Tuesday then worsen for mid to late week.

Another relatively wet storm could impact the region early next
week.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


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