033
FXUS65 KABQ 102353 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
453 PM MST Tue Feb 10 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 444 PM MST Tue Feb 10 2026

- Despite a weak cold front currently across eastern New Mexico,
  above average temperatures will persist through at least
  Thursday areawide.

- A Pacific system will bring widespread rain showers with
  mountain snow from Friday through Saturday morning. Several
  inches of snow are forecast above 8,000ft and there is a good
  chance of difficult travel conditions in the mountains.

- The jet stream will bring increasingly windy conditions next
  week, with potential for more precipitation across western NM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1122 AM MST Tue Feb 10 2026

Increasing southwest flow aloft and Pacific moisture advection
through Wednesday night will bring increasing cloud cover, with
low chances (20-40%) for showers across north central and
northwest portions of the area. A weak backdoor cold front
currently banked-up against the central mountain chain is
bringing cooler conditions to eastern NM today, but temperatures
are still at or above average behind the front. Despite increasing
cloud cover, daytime temperatures will persist above average on
Wednesday. Breezy conditions are forecast across eastern NM
Wednesday afternoon as a lee side trough begins to deepen, with
gusts to between 25-30mph.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 1122 AM MST Tue Feb 10 2026

All eyes turn to a Pacific trough/low gathering offshore of SoCal
and the Baja Peninsula on Thursday, which is forecast to move
over NM Friday through early Saturday and bring a round of
widespread precipitation. Above to well above average temperatures
will persist Thursday in advance of the Pacific low, but are
forecast to cool down closer to average on Friday thanks to
increasing cloud cover and the onset of precipitation. The Pacific
low won`t be particularly deep feature and is forecast to be
around 559-561dam at 500mb as it moves across the state. Rain is
expected for most population centers with snow levels starting out
between 8-9Kft, relegating accumulating snow and associated
impacts to the mountains. Snow levels will fall Friday night to
around 7Kft as the colder air aloft associated with the Pacific
low moves overhead. 700mb temperatures are modeled to drop to
between -2 and -4C across the area by 12Z Saturday. Difficult
travel conditions will likely develop in the mountains Friday
evening and continue through Saturday morning. At this time, we`re
anticipating an advisory-level event for the mountains, with only
very low probabilities for warning amounts in the southern Sangre
De Cristos. An upper level ridge will follow behind the rapidly
departing Pacific low this weekend, bringing temperatures back
above average areawide by Sunday.

The west coast troughing pattern will amplify early/mid next week
as the polar jet turns onshore near SoCal and is steered over the
Desert SW and NM. The 12Z medium range model solutions are in good
agreement with this pattern development, but differ on the exact
details. At this time, we have moderate forecast confidence that
progressively windier conditions will develop across our area from
early to mid next week, with a deepening lee side trough and the
polar jet being the main players. Pacific moisture and lowering
snow levels with strong orographic forcing may bring winter
impacts to the western and northern NM from early to mid next
week and those details will gain clarity over the coming model
cycles.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 444 PM MST Tue Feb 10 2026

Gradually lowering, but still VFR, ceilings are forecast over the
next 24 hours across the Land of Enchantment, due to incoming
Pacific moisture aloft. KFMN has a chance (30%) of light showers
developing from late morning Wed onward, but most likely focused
after 21Z. There is even a very low (5%) chance of thunder during
this timeframe, but much too low to mention in TAF. Current
upstream obs and latest model guidance (such as the LAV) suggest
that the east canyon wind at KABQ will be delayed and weaker than
earlier forecast, so have trended TAF in this direction.
Otherwise, breezy south-westerly winds develop Wed afternoon,
especially in the eastern Plains.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1122 AM MST Tue Feb 10 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least
Sunday. Above average temperatures and mostly good ventilation
will persist through Thursday as Pacific moisture increases over
the area, bringing higher humidity and increased cloud cover. A
Pacific low will impact the region Fri/Sat with cooler
temperatures, good chances for wetting precipitation and
accumulating snow in the mountains. The jet stream will get active
over the region from early to mid next week, bringing
progressively stronger winds. Critical fire weather conditions may
return as early as Monday, but Tue/Wed are forecast to be the
windier days. At this time, the main area of concern for critical
fire weather conditions next week will be the northeast and east
central plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  37  60  35  60 /  10  40  30   5
Dulce...........................  26  57  30  58 /  10  50  50  20
Cuba............................  32  58  32  57 /   5  30  40  20
Gallup..........................  28  58  25  59 /   5  20  10   5
El Morro........................  33  59  32  57 /   5  20  10   5
Grants..........................  28  63  28  62 /   0  10  10   5
Quemado.........................  33  61  33  60 /   0  10   5   5
Magdalena.......................  40  63  40  62 /   5   5   5  10
Datil...........................  36  60  34  58 /   5   5   5   5
Reserve.........................  33  65  31  65 /   0  10   0   5
Glenwood........................  36  70  35  69 /   0  10   0   5
Chama...........................  26  50  28  51 /   5  40  40  20
Los Alamos......................  36  56  38  57 /   5  10  30  10
Pecos...........................  29  59  33  59 /   0   5  20  10
Cerro/Questa....................  32  53  34  54 /   0  10  20   5
Red River.......................  28  45  30  46 /   0  10  30  10
Angel Fire......................  19  52  25  52 /   0  10  20  10
Taos............................  26  58  30  58 /   0  10  20   5
Mora............................  26  60  31  59 /   0   5  10   5
Espanola........................  30  64  34  64 /   0  10  20   5
Santa Fe........................  36  58  38  59 /   5  10  20  10
Santa Fe Airport................  33  60  35  61 /   5  10  20   5
Albuquerque Foothills...........  41  63  44  64 /   5  10  20  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  39  65  41  66 /   0   5  10  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  36  68  40  68 /   5   5  10   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  38  65  41  67 /   5  10  10   5
Belen...........................  33  68  37  67 /   5   5  10  10
Bernalillo......................  36  66  41  67 /   0  10  20  10
Bosque Farms....................  32  68  37  68 /   0   5  10   5
Corrales........................  36  67  41  67 /   5  10  20   5
Los Lunas.......................  34  67  38  67 /   5   5  10   5
Placitas........................  39  62  42  62 /   0  10  20  10
Rio Rancho......................  37  65  41  67 /   5  10  20  10
Socorro.........................  39  70  42  70 /   0   0   5   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  35  58  38  59 /   0  10  20  10
Tijeras.........................  36  60  39  59 /   0   5  20  10
Edgewood........................  31  63  35  62 /   0   5  10   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  26  65  30  64 /   0   0  10   5
Clines Corners..................  30  59  35  60 /   0   0   5   5
Mountainair.....................  34  63  37  62 /   0   0   5   5
Gran Quivira....................  35  63  37  63 /   0   0   5   5
Carrizozo.......................  40  65  40  65 /   0   0   0  10
Ruidoso.........................  38  61  40  61 /   5   5   0   5
Capulin.........................  26  59  32  61 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  23  61  29  62 /   0   0   5   0
Springer........................  23  65  29  65 /   0   0   5   0
Las Vegas.......................  28  61  34  63 /   0   0   5   0
Clayton.........................  31  61  41  68 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  28  61  35  66 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  30  68  37  74 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  31  63  37  69 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  29  69  40  75 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  32  64  40  75 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  31  63  39  74 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  32  62  36  72 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  39  60  40  72 /   0   0   0   5
Picacho.........................  36  65  39  72 /   0   0   0   5
Elk.............................  34  69  37  71 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...53-Schroeder