Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 162354 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
554 PM MDT Mon Jul 16 2018

Scattered convection will continue through approximately 17/06Z
before gradually dissipating. Storms will produce brief MVFR/IFR
conditions and mountain obscurations. Drier air will move in Tuesday,
limiting afternoon and evening thunderstorm coverage to the
northwest third of the state, especially mountains.



.PREV DISCUSSION...247 PM MDT Mon Jul 16 2018...
High terrain thunderstorm activity has sprung up again this
afternoon. Storms will gradually move westward expanding over lower
elevations of central and western New Mexico. Storms over eastern New
Mexico will be more isolated and erratic in their motions. Any storm
will be capable of producing localized heavy rainfall and flash
flooding. Storm coverage trends down tomorrow through the rest of the
week, being more confined to the higher terrain. Highs will also
trend up as high pressure builds over the state, with 100s popping up
over eastern New Mexico by Wednesday.


Another day, another round of afternoon storms forming over the
high terrain of central and western NM. A few storms have also
formed along a sfc bdry from Quay down to Roosevelt Counties. An
easterly wave is currently located over the southern periphery of NM,
setting up stronger westerly flow there, allowing storms to move
along at a somewhat decent pace. Flash flooding still remains a
concern for those areas having received rainfall in recent days. Storm
motion is much slower over the northern mtns of the state where
localized heavy rainfall and flash flooding are the main concerns
again. Have kept the Flash Flood Watch going for portions of central
and western NM, except the northern Sacramento Mtns where dry mid-
level air behind the easterly wave is working to inhibit storm
formation so far. HREF and HRRR are also not gun-ho not showing much
of anything forming there through the rest of today.

Another outflow enhanced frontal push from CO into northeast NM could
keep storms going a bit longer tonight for the northeast plains.
Otherwise, expecting storms to taper off this evening into Tuesday
morning. High pressure begins to build over the state Tuesday, with
the drier mid-level air behind the easterly wave pushing over
southwest NM. This will limit most of tomorrow`s storm activity to
the northern mtns. The ridge continues to build over the Four Corners
mid-late this week, with storm coverage trending down and high
temperatures trending up. Models have backed off quite noticeably
from yesterday, and are limiting afternoon convection to the higher
terrain. Although rainfall footprints are expected to be less, the
threat for locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding over high
terrain burn scars will remain. Highs across the state will be
several degrees above average by Wednesday, with 100s popping up over
eastern NM.

The ridge looks to slide more squarely over NM this weekend, keeping
storms limited to the higher terrain in the afternoons. Long range,
the GFS and ECMWF differ handling an embedded trough along the
northern periphery of the ridge. The GFS has it a bit stronger,
bringing more of a NW flow over northern NM. This would favor a
backdoor front sliding into eastern NM, increasing storm coverage
there early next week. Will have to monitor this as we get closer.



An easterly wave will move to the west across southern NM this
afternoon, while a ridge of strong upper level high pressure in the
Great Basin builds eastward across western CO and northwest NM. The
mid and upper level flow between these systems will be east at
around 10 knots across central NM, and light winds aloft will
prevail across northern NM under the influence of the upper level
ridge. Winds near the surface this afternoon and evening will be
light. Deep layer moisture will remain across the region this
afternoon and evening, and scattered to locally numerous showers and
thunderstorms will develop with the greatest density of activity
across the higher terrain of northern and western NM. Flash flooding
will be possible this afternoon and evening in portions of northern
and western NM. Ventilation rates will be fair to good across most
of the region this afternoon, but will be poor to fair in portions
of northern and western NM.

The upper level ridge will expand over northern and central NM
Tuesday, as drier mid level air spreads westward across eastern and
south central NM. Warmer and drier air aloft will decrease shower
and thunderstorm activity in eastern and south central NM Tuesday
afternoon and evening. Despite warming aloft, scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop across northern and western NM Tuesday
afternoon and evening with the continued threat of flash flooding
due to slow storm motion. Weak surface high pressure in TX Tuesday
will produce light south winds across western and central NM and
south winds 10 to 15 mph across the eastern plains. Ventilation
rates in north central and western NM Tuesday will be poor to fair
with fair to good conditions elsewhere.

There will continue to be a decrease in shower and thunderstorm
activity across most of the region Wednesday, as the large ridge to
the west becomes stronger and builds farther east across NM. The
exception will be in the northeast plains and adjacent highlands,
where a backdoor cold front is expected to increase activity
Wednesday afternoon and evening. The strong ridge will remain over
NM Thursday with less coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Little
change is expected Friday, except a backdoor cold front may increase
shower and thunderstorm activity from the northeast and east central
plains west to the central mountains. The strong upper high will
shift eastward Saturday and Sunday with recycled moisture producing
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will
be above normal Wednesday through Sunday with minimum relative
humidity each day from the upper teens to lower 30s.



Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for the following zones...



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