Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 162117
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
317 PM MDT Mon May 16 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms in eastern New Mexico will shift
eastward into Texas an hour or two after sunset. Elsewhere, westerly
breezes will bring dry air back into western and central New Mexico
tonight. Dry and breezy weather is forecast for all areas Tuesday. By
Wednesday, another weak front will bring chances for showers and
thunderstorms to northeast New Mexico. Breezy and dry and very warm
to hot weather returns to all areas Thursday with strong winds
possible Friday and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
A round of daytime heating triggered convection is underway along a
slowly sharpening dryline as a Pacific trough approaches from over
western AZ. Showers and storms will favor areas along/east of the
central mountain chain late this afternoon and early evening before
moving off into the TX/OK Panhandles per the latest HREF, HRRR
and NAM solutions. We`re still anticipating a mix of wet/dry storms
that will lean more on the dry side along the central mountain chain
and adjacent eastern highlands. Will likely see a mixed storm mode
scenario, with potential for supercell thunderstorms although 0-6km
bulk shear is lacking a bit at 30-35kts. The main threat with
this convection will be strong/damaging wind gusts given dCAPE
values ranging between 1500-2000 J/kg. The weak Pacific trough will
move over early Tuesday, bringing breezy to locally windy westerlies
that will scour out any remaining moisture across the east central
and northeast plains. Tuesday will feature breezy to locally windy
westerlies with well above normal temperatures that will approach
daily record high across much of the area. Another, weaker, backdoor
cold front will slide down the eastern highlands/plains Tuesday
night, resulting in a northerly wind shift.

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
Transitory ridge axis moves over NM Wednesday morning, followed by a
diffluent flow aloft ahead of a weak upper-level trough over AZ
during the afternoon. High based cumulus development is likely over
most mountain ranges with virga shafts and sprinkles and a dry storm
or two possible central and west with wetter showers and storms from
the Sangre de Cristo mountain crest eastward. The wetter showers and
storm chances are the result of another backdoor front/boundary with
Gulf moisture that moves into the northeast NM Wednesday morning.
Models are trending less windy for Thursday, digging the above
mentioned trough farther southeast into southeast AZ and slowing its
eastward progress. While winds will likely increase somewhat Thursday,
latest model forecast suggesting it could be late-day Thursday
before winds start to pick up. Another upper-level short-wave trough
within the long wave trough over Canada and northern tier states is
forecast to slide southeast through the Great Basin Thursday night.
Winds aloft ramp up significantly Thursday night with widespread
40-55kt speeds at 700mb. Friday continues to look windy to very
windy with models now developing a surface low over near Clines
Corners with the associated surface cold fronts (Pacific and
backdoor) moving through Friday evening. GFS sends a strong backdoor
surge southward through eastern NM Friday night. At this point
showers and thunderstorms will favor far north-central NM Friday
night into Saturday where the two surface front converge. Breezy to
windy condtions result for central and eastern NM Sunday, thanks to a
strong return flow set up.

11/33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...RED FLAG WARNING FOR DRY LIGHTNING AND ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS NEARBY
ONGOING FIRES TODAY FOR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE EASTERN
PLAINS DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY, GUSTY WINDS AND AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...

A mixed wet/dry round of showers and storms will impact areas from
the central mountain chain east to the TX/OK borders this afternoon
and evening, with some dry lightning and strong/erratic wind gusts.
Spotty critical fire weather conditions will prevail late this
afternoon and early this evening west of the central mountain chain.
Hot, dry and unstable conditions will continue Tuesday, with
moderate westerlies leading to a few hours of critical fire weather
condtions across the eastern plains, where a Fire Weather Watch is
in effect. Hot, dry and unstable conditions will persist Wednesday,
although with wind below critical threshold. A backdoor front will
bring a wind shift to eastern NM Tuesday night into early Wednesday,
with sufficient moisture behind it for a late day round of
convection across northeast NM. The westerlies will trend up
Thursday and couple with a deepening lee side trough to bring a
round of critical fire weather conditions. However, winds are back
on the downtrend for Thursday and may be a limiter in terms of how
much of the area will be impacted by critical fire weather
conditions. Stronger winds will impact the area Friday as a trough
moves east toward the southern Rockies and northern NM, with several
hours of critical fire weather conditions likely. A cold front will
race south across the area Friday night and bring a break from
critical conditions for Saturday. The forecast becomes more
uncertain beyond Saturday, with the potential for more critical fire
weather conditions going into early next week.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist, except for
potential MVFR vsbys in blowing dust from convective outflow at KTCC
and KLVS later this afternoon. A round of iso/sct convection is
likely this afternoon evening across eastern NM, with the potential
for strong outflow gusts to 50-60kts. Low level flow will pick up out
of the W-SW toward the end of the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  48  88  51  86 /   0   0   0   5
Dulce...........................  40  84  42  84 /   0   0   0  10
Cuba............................  45  82  45  82 /   0   0   0   5
Gallup..........................  41  85  43  83 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  44  81  45  81 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  42  85  44  84 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  45  83  44  81 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  53  86  55  85 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  46  82  48  81 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  39  87  39  87 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  51  89  51  89 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  38  78  39  76 /   5   0   0  20
Los Alamos......................  53  83  54  81 /   5   0   0  10
Pecos...........................  50  83  51  82 /  10   0   0  10
Cerro/Questa....................  45  80  46  77 /  10   0   0  30
Red River.......................  39  74  39  73 /  10   0   5  40
Angel Fire......................  32  75  32  74 /  10   0   0  40
Taos............................  41  84  43  82 /  10   0   0  20
Mora............................  45  82  48  79 /  10   0   0  30
Espanola........................  51  90  52  88 /   5   0   0  10
Santa Fe........................  50  84  51  82 /   5   0   0  10
Santa Fe Airport................  47  87  48  86 /   5   0   0   5
Albuquerque Foothills...........  59  89  60  88 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  56  90  57  89 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  52  92  53  91 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  55  90  56  90 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  52  93  54  92 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  54  91  55  91 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  47  92  48  91 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  54  91  55  91 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  49  92  50  92 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  58  87  58  86 /   0   0   0   5
Rio Rancho......................  56  90  57  91 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  56  94  57  94 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  55  82  57  81 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  54  85  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  51  86  52  86 /   5   0   0   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  43  87  45  86 /   5   0   0   5
Clines Corners..................  48  83  49  82 /   5   0   0   5
Mountainair.....................  53  85  54  84 /   5   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  54  85  53  84 /   5   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  58  88  57  89 /   5   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  54  81  53  83 /  10   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  48  85  50  76 /  30   5   5  50
Raton...........................  44  89  50  83 /  10   0   0  50
Springer........................  45  90  52  82 /  10   0   0  40
Las Vegas.......................  46  84  49  81 /  10   0   0  20
Clayton.........................  53  93  54  84 /  40   5   0  20
Roy.............................  50  90  56  83 /  30   0   0  30
Conchas.........................  54  97  58  91 /  20   0   0  20
Santa Rosa......................  51  93  55  89 /  20   0   0  10
Tucumcari.......................  57  99  59  92 /  20   0   0  10
Clovis..........................  58  96  57  91 /  30   0   0   5
Portales........................  59  97  56  94 /  30   0   0   5
Fort Sumner.....................  55  97  58  93 /  20   0   0   5
Roswell.........................  59 101  62  97 /  10   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  57  94  61  92 /  10   0   0   0
Elk.............................  56  89  58  92 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for the following
zones... NMZ103.

&&

$$


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