123
FXUS65 KABQ 042359 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
559 PM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 207 PM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024

The heat will get cranked up over the next couple of days, with
high temperatures forecast to reach 5 to 15 degrees above normal.
Roswell may hit at high of 105 on Thursday and Albuquerque may
reach 100 degrees for the first time this year, posing some heat
risk. Virga showers and mostly dry thunderstorms will trend up
from Wednesday through Friday, producing strong and erratic wind
gusts. Temperatures will trend down over the weekend and into
early next week as high pressure loosens it`s grip on the region
and moisture increases across the area. Good chances for showers
and storms will favor eastern NM early next week thanks to a
backdoor front.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 207 PM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024

A wash of cirrus clouds continues to cruise across the state as the
trough axis of an upper low in CAN slides into the Great Plains. The
feature`s tour has already kicked off a backdoor front down the
plains, its progress into northeastern NM evident on visible
satellite. Convection across the Panhandles later this evening will
allow for Tds to rise across eastern NM as moisture surges westward.
This strengthening of the density gradient between eastern NM and
the RGV will allow for a modest easterly gap wind to take shape
across the central valleys overnight, diminishing around sunrise.
Pressure heights begin to rise Wednesday as a ridge begins to
intensify over the western CONUS. While the central plains southward
will see a modicum of cooling thanks to the fropa, areas to the
north and west will see a few to several degrees of warming on
Wednesday. The intensity of the heat will greatly depend on exactly
how rich and how far the previous night`s moisture turns out. Gentle
convergence amongst the aforementioned moisture may lead to isolated
shower and thunderstorm development tomorrow afternoon across the
southwest and south central high terrain. The ridge of high pressure
develops its center Wednesday night, wandering its way into the Land
of Enchantment. This will allow for overnight temperatures to
increase a few degrees compared to Tuesday night`s readings,
placing them well above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 207 PM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024

A 593dam 500mb high will sit directly over central NM on Thursday,
which will be the hottest day of the forecast cycle. The high
temperature forecast for Thursday has trended back up slightly at
a few locales, mostly notably in Albuquerque and Roswell where a
Heat Advisory (low end) may be required. Moisture trapped under
the upper high circulation from the backdoor front, including Gulf
moisture creep into central NM on southerly low level flow, will
fuel a round of daytime-heating triggered convection on Thursday
afternoon/evening. However, moisture will not be sufficient for
deep convection and the lower boundary layer will still be
relatively dry. Meaning, virga showers and dry thunder are more
likely than wetting rainfall. Similar setup for Friday, although
with high temps 1-2 degrees lower corresponding to slightly lower
pressure heights. Another round of daytime heating-triggered
convection is forecast Friday and will likely be mostly dry again.
The NAM is advertising impressive downdraft CAPE values of
2000-3000J/kg both Thu/Fri and if realized would result in some
damaging wind gusts between 60-80mph. A weak baja low will
approach slowly from the southwest Sat/Sun and the upper high is
forecast to breakdown more, with 500mb pressure heights dropping
to 586-589dam. Expect temperatures to decrease with pressure
heights over the weekend with sufficient moisture for a mix of
dry/wet showers and storms. Northeast NM will be favored for
deeper convection over the weekend as a backdoor front pokes in
and provides both added moisture and forcing. A more notable
backdoor front is forecast to bring cooler temperatures and
significant moisture to eastern NM Mon/Tue of next week, with
improved chances for showers and storms from the central mountain
chain eastward.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 542 PM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024

A somewhat moist backdoor front will continue to move
southwestward through the eastern plains and up against the east
slopes of the central mountain chain tonight. A few patches of low
clouds may develop around Clines Corners late tonight into early
Wednesday morning, and potentially as far north as KLVS, but
models are downplaying the low cloud potential. The front may have
enough depth to seep through gaps in the central mountain chain
into KABQ and KSAF late tonight and early Wednesday morning. The
front is forecast to deliver enough moisture for isolated virga
showers to develop along the central mountain chain Wednesday
afternoon until sunset with brief, localized, and erratic dry
microburst wind gusts up to 45 KT. A few dry thunderstorms may
alos be in the mix over the south central mountains Wednesday
afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 207 PM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024

A backdoor front descending into the eastern plains this evening
through tonight will allow for a decent rise in minimum RH Wednesday
across the eastern plains. While values will be above 15 percent in
eastern New Mexico, areas west of the central mountains will
continue to be in the low double digits to single digits. Generally
light winds will prevail in the afternoon amongst mostly sunny skies
and above average warmth. The ridge of high pressure will center
itself over the state on Thursday, bringing well above normal
temperatures. Similar humidity conditions will exist amongst light
winds. The aforementioned influx of moisture will give rise to high
terrain thunderstorms in the afternoon. However, given that surface
dewpoints will be in the upper 20s to mid 30s at best with
relatively starved midlevel moisture, do expect that a majority of
this development to trend drier. The dry lightning aspect could be
particularly hazardous given the recent stretches of widespread
single digit relative humidity in these areas. Coverage of storms
will increase through the weekend, along with an increase in
moisture quality. The best chances for wetting rainfall will favor
along and east of the central mountains through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  52  94  54  98 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  42  89  45  93 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  49  88  52  91 /   0   0   0   5
Gallup..........................  45  91  46  96 /   0   0   0   5
El Morro........................  51  87  54  91 /   0   0   0  10
Grants..........................  46  90  48  95 /   0   0   0  10
Quemado.........................  51  89  53  93 /   0   0   0  20
Magdalena.......................  60  90  62  93 /   0   0   0  20
Datil...........................  55  89  58  91 /   0   5   0  30
Reserve.........................  44  94  47  97 /   0  10   5  30
Glenwood........................  60  99  63 100 /   0  10   0  30
Chama...........................  43  84  46  87 /   0   0   0   5
Los Alamos......................  60  85  63  91 /   0   5   0  20
Pecos...........................  53  88  55  91 /   0  10   0  20
Cerro/Questa....................  46  83  49  86 /   5   5   0  20
Red River.......................  42  74  44  79 /   0   5   0  20
Angel Fire......................  36  79  37  82 /   0   5   0  20
Taos............................  46  88  49  92 /   5   5   0  10
Mora............................  47  82  51  87 /   0  10   0  30
Espanola........................  56  93  57  98 /   0   5   0  10
Santa Fe........................  58  87  61  93 /   0  10   0  10
Santa Fe Airport................  56  91  58  96 /   0   5   0  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  63  92  67  97 /   0   0   0  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  63  93  65  99 /   0   0   0  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  62  96  64 101 /   0   0   0  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  62  95  64  99 /   0   0   0   5
Belen...........................  58  96  60 101 /   0   0   0  10
Bernalillo......................  61  95  63 100 /   0   0   0   5
Bosque Farms....................  57  96  59 101 /   0   0   0  10
Corrales........................  59  95  61 100 /   0   0   0   5
Los Lunas.......................  57  96  60 101 /   0   0   0  10
Placitas........................  62  91  64  96 /   0   0   0  10
Rio Rancho......................  62  94  64  99 /   0   0   0   5
Socorro.........................  64  99  65 102 /   0   0   0  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  57  86  61  91 /   0   5   0  10
Tijeras.........................  58  89  61  94 /   0   5   0  10
Edgewood........................  55  88  58  94 /   0   5   0  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  51  90  52  96 /   0   5   0  10
Clines Corners..................  53  85  56  91 /   0   5   0  20
Mountainair.....................  56  90  59  93 /   0   5   0  10
Gran Quivira....................  53  90  56  93 /   0   5   0  20
Carrizozo.......................  61  94  63  95 /   0  10   5  20
Ruidoso.........................  57  87  58  87 /   0  30   5  30
Capulin.........................  51  84  53  85 /   5   5   0  20
Raton...........................  51  89  53  91 /   5   5   0  20
Springer........................  52  90  54  93 /   5  10   0  30
Las Vegas.......................  52  85  55  90 /   5  10   0  20
Clayton.........................  57  90  61  89 /   5   0   0  10
Roy.............................  56  87  59  92 /   5   5   0  20
Conchas.........................  61  95  64 100 /   5   0   0  10
Santa Rosa......................  60  91  62  98 /   5   0   0  10
Tucumcari.......................  60  94  65 100 /   5   0   0  10
Clovis..........................  63  94  65  99 /   0   0   5   5
Portales........................  62  95  64 100 /   5   0   0   5
Fort Sumner.....................  62  95  64 101 /   5   5   0  10
Roswell.........................  70 100  70 105 /   0  10   0  10
Picacho.........................  62  92  62  97 /   0  20   0  30
Elk.............................  59  90  58  94 /   0  30   5  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...44