Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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419 FXUS65 KABQ 171738 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1138 AM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 210 AM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Hot with breezy south to southwest winds and elevated to critical fire weather conditions through Tuesday. Moisture increases across eastern NM behind a backdoor front Wednesday resulting in the return of shower and storm chances during the afternoon and evening. Storm outflow and higher moisture push through the central mountain chain Wednesday evening bringing a strong east canyon wind to Albuquerque and Santa Fe Metro Wednesday evening. Higher moisture makes it all the way to the Arizona border come Thursday. This higher moisture along with the remnants of a tropical wave will bring better chances for shower and storms areawide Thursday and Friday. Flash flooding will be possible on recent burn scars. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 210 AM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024 An upper level trough/low moving east across the Great Basin and will steer stronger westerly winds over the area and bring a deepening lee side trough, leading to breezy to windy conditons by afternoon. Another hot day is forecast, with high temperatures above normal most areas. Roswell overachieved yesterday and tied a daily record at 107 degrees. Downslope winds will help boost Roswell`s high temperatures another degree today, with 108 forecast and a Heat Advisory in effect. The latest NAM is showing convective initiation along the TX border late this afternoon, where the SPC has a marginal risk for severe storms. Any convection that develops will move quickly east into TX, but there will be a window of a few hours late this afternoon into the early evening hours when storms could impact locales such as Clovis and Portales. Westerly winds aloft will become more southwesterly Tuesday and trend down as the upper level trough/low ejects northeast out of the northern Rockies. Deep layer mixing will lead to strong wind gusts by late afternoon Tuesday, but winds will be notably less than today`s. Any convection that develops will be isolated near the TX border once again, but the capping inversion will be difficult to overcome. Another Heat Advisory is likely for the Chaves County plains Tuesday, with Roswell forecast to hit a high of 105 degrees. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 210 AM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024 As a shortwave within the larger scale upper level trough over the northern Rockies exits northeast to the northern Great Plains Tuesday night, it will send a weak backdoor front with higher moisture behind it into northeast NM. A stray shower/storm could develop along the backdoor front in far northeast NM early Wednesday morning. Simultaneously, southeast return flow on the southwest flank of high pressure centered over the northeast U.S. will push higher Gulf moisture from Texas west into southeast and east central NM. Upslope flow and higher moisture across the east slope of the central mountain chain will result in the development of some showers and storms. However, models vary on the coverage of showers and storms with the GFS more bullish and the ECMWF and NAM depicting less. This could be due to the subsidence ahead of the tropical wave axis over central Texas. Elsewhere, breezy south to southeast winds will be present across central NM including ABQ due to the strong moisture/density gradient along the central mountain chain (much lower moisture west of the central mountain chain and higher moisture east of the central mountain chain). Outflow from any storm activity across eastern NM, strengthening southeast flow on the western flank of the upper high and higher moisture from the tropical wave over Texas will help finally push a strong east canyon wind through the gaps of the central mountain chain through the ABQ and Santa Fe metros Wednesday evening. The GFS guidance has east winds at KABQ peaking at 33 kts with the initial push while ECMWF guidance has around 25 kts with that initial push. A strong east canyon wind is definitely possible due to the high moisture difference on either side of the central mountain chain. Ensemble and deterministic models agree in Gulf moisture pushing all the way to eastern AZ come Thursday morning. There is slightly better agreement regarding the track of the tropical wave over Texas late week. Most deterministic and ensemble guidance now have the western flank of the upper high over the south central US. The deterministic ECMWF is an outlier with the western flank a little further west, but overall it looks like the wave moves along the Rio Grande and Texas/Mexico border Thursday. Higher cloud cover and moisture spread west into eastern NM. This higher cloud cover and thus cooler temperatures (10 to 20 degrees below average) could help to limit instability for the development of heavier rainfall producing storms and thus result in more widespread rainfall with embedded storms late Thursday into Friday. Lower rainfall rates would be better for the HPCC/ McBride and Blue 2 burn scars. Elsewhere some convective storms will be possible across western and north central NM Thursday and Friday afternoon and evening due to being of the western edge of the higher moisture combined with weak disturbances embedded aloft in the southwest flow ahead of a baggy trough over southern CA. A new center of the upper high develops over the state come the weekend. However, mid and low level moisture will remain under the ridge resulting in diurnal showers and storms first over the higher terrain before spreading to lower elevations through outflow boundaries. Rainfall rates will probably be greater for the weekend storm activity due to warmer temperatures and higher instability as a result. Thus, chances for burn scar flash flooding will probably increase. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1135 AM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Southwest winds will increase quickly thru 1pm with gusts of 25 to 35 kt common at many terminals until sunset. A couple SHRA/TS may form near the TX/NM state line aft 4pm then move quickly east into west TX. A storm or two may become strong or severe with hail and damaging winds possible. Winds will then taper off overnight with SKC all areas. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 210 AM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024 ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NM THIS AFTERNOON... An upper level trough moving east across the Intermountain West will steer stronger westerly winds aloft over the region today and bring a deepening lee side trough, leading to windy conditons with a hot, dry and unstable airmass in place. Added the Upper Rio Grande Valley to the Red Flag Warning for today, where the forecast of critical fire weather conditions have trended up from the previous forecast cycle. Winds will trend down Tuesday, but a hot, dry and unstable airmass will persist. Hot, dry and unstable conditions will be relegated to western NM on Wednesday as the combination of a backdoor front and Gulf moisture bring higher humidity and chances for wetting storms to areas along/east of the central mountain chain. Moisture will progress west across the area Wednesday night and set the stage for a rounds of wetting storms going through the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 93 57 87 56 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 88 46 84 45 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 88 52 85 52 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 90 48 87 46 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 88 51 85 50 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 91 49 88 48 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 90 51 88 50 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 92 59 91 59 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 88 54 87 54 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 91 45 89 47 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 96 59 93 61 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 81 44 80 45 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 88 60 86 59 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 87 55 86 54 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 82 47 82 46 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 75 45 74 43 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 79 39 78 39 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 89 48 87 49 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 85 50 85 48 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 94 57 93 56 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 90 58 89 58 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 94 58 92 57 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 95 65 93 64 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 97 64 95 64 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 99 63 98 62 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 97 64 96 64 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 100 59 98 59 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 97 64 96 63 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 99 58 98 59 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 98 62 96 62 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 99 59 98 59 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 94 64 92 63 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 97 65 95 64 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 100 64 99 64 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 89 59 88 58 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 91 60 89 59 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 91 58 90 56 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 93 53 91 53 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 89 54 88 54 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 91 58 90 56 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 91 57 90 56 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 94 64 93 63 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 89 59 89 57 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 90 54 90 52 / 0 0 0 10 Raton........................... 94 53 91 54 / 0 0 0 5 Springer........................ 96 55 93 55 / 0 0 0 5 Las Vegas....................... 89 55 89 52 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 97 64 95 60 / 0 0 5 10 Roy............................. 94 60 92 58 / 0 0 0 5 Conchas......................... 99 66 99 65 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 98 63 97 63 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 100 67 99 65 / 0 10 5 5 Clovis.......................... 98 66 97 66 / 20 10 10 10 Portales........................ 99 67 98 67 / 20 10 10 10 Fort Sumner..................... 101 67 100 68 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 108 69 105 71 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 99 63 97 61 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 95 60 93 57 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ101-105-109- 121-123. Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ238. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....71 AVIATION...42