320
FXUS63 KABR 262015
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
315 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms (30 to 60 percent chance) will
  occur across the area tonight, then mainly across the east Monday
  afternoon and evening. No severe weather is expected.

- Northwest winds will increase into the 15 to 30 mph range Monday.

- Chances for precipitation return later this week, with a 30 to
  60 percent chance Wednesday night through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

An upper level zonal flow pattern currently over the region will
give way to an approaching shortwave trough set to track across the
CWA overnight and Monday. Northwest flow develops Monday evening,
then another shortwave trough will drop in from the north during the
overnight hours.

At the surface, seeing a couple of areas of shower and thunderstorm
development this afternoon across western South Dakota and in
association with a weak boundary between the Missouri River and the
James River Valley. All of this activity will gradually drift
eastward late this afternoon into tonight. Instability and shear are
minimal through the evening, so not expecting any severe weather. As
the aforementioned second shortwave approaches later in the day
Monday into Monday night, may see some additional precipitation
develop, mainly across the eastern part of the CWA. Again, no severe
weather is expected. Will see a bit of a tightening pressure
gradient on Monday as well, with northwest winds increasing into the
15 to 30 mph range.

Low temperatures tonight will be in the mid 40s to lower 50s. High
temperatures on Monday will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Lows
Monday night will be in the mid to upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Tuesday morning an upper level low continues to move off to our east
as a ridge builds into the region. This will continue through the
first portion of the long term until a low starts to move in
Thursday evening. Deterministic models are keeping the center of the
low in southern Canada but the trough and some shortwave energy will
dig down into our area. This will bring some rain chances for at
least the start of the weekend. Saturday evening we transition into
a westerly upper level flow pattern and that will last through the
end of the period.

Wednesday night into Thursday looks to be the best chance for some
rain as that low starts to move in. Rain chances start west river
Wednesday evening (30-45%) and move west to east. Chances increase
on Thursday, peaking at 45-60% across the area during the day. There
is a chance for some storms Thursday evening, although it is still
too far out to determine if they will become severe. 25 to 45%
chances continue Friday, but start to diminish west to east Saturday
morning.

Temperatures will generally be around average with highs in the 70s
to around 80. Days with rain chances are expected to be slightly
cooler with highs in the low to mid 70s. Winds look to pick up
Wednesday as a strong high pushes into the region. Gusts could
exceed 40 mph west river during the afternoon. Other than that and
some possible 30-35 mph gusts in higher elevation areas Thursday,
winds should be around normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across central
South Dakota late this afternoon, then will gradually track
eastward through the evening hours. Due to the scattered nature,
will just mention VCTS in the TAFS for now. Other than the
potential for some MVFR vsbys with any thunderstorms, VFR
conditions will prevail across the area through the TAF period.
Look for northwest winds to increase into the 15 to 30 knot range
Monday morning.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Parkin
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...Parkin