Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 292321 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
521 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

Issued at 517 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

A swath of broken stratus is working its way south out of North
Dakota this evening. Radar is lighting up with returns under the
stratus, but at best there are isolated flurries for now with 10
to 15 degree dewpoint spreads. May need to add a mention of
flurries across the east as temps fall over the next couple of


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 219 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

The short term period is pretty quiet overall. We have some clouds
moving into northeastern SD that will stick around through the
overnight hours. These clouds will burn off tomorrow to give us
mostly sunny to sunny skies. Winds will continue to gust to around
30 mph overnight, but will start to diminish Wednesday morning west
river as a ridge starts to move in. Winds are expected to continue
to gust to around 30 mph east river until late Wednesday afternoon
or evening. Winds combined with below freezing low temperatures will
cause wind chills to be close to or below 0 tonight and Wednesday
morning. Plan accordingly before leaving for work or school. A
ridge starts to move in Wednesday afternoon that will bring a
shift from northerly winds to southerly winds. This will bring in
warmer air for Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 219 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

A somewhat active and progressive long wave pattern is forecast for
the CONUS. For much of the period a strong mid-level ridge will be
locked in over the Gulf of Mexico with periodic energy moving across
the CONUS. The period starts off dry under s/w ridging, but that
won`t last long. A decent wave moving through the flow will provide
for snow chances Fri-Sat. The system is moving fast enough such that
snow amounts look relatively light. 00z EPS data suggested it would
be hard to get much more than an inch of snow across the north, but
the latest ECMWF has shifted to the south with it`s main baroclinic
zone, thus throwing more doubt into the system`s ultimate
track/amounts. 12z GEFS/GEPS progs maintain better chances for
advisory type snow to the north of the CWA. Stay tuned! Another
potentially interesting system is progged for early next week, or at
the very end of the forecast. As one would expect, the various
models and their solutions are somewhat wide ranging, thus lending
little if any confidence that far out.

Temperatures will be on a roller coaster ride through the period.
Thursday will be relatively mild, but the following weekend should
turn colder as we get a brief intrusion of arctic air. That in
itself will probably be short lived as temps trend back up later in
the weekend and early the following week. NBM percentile data has
pretty large max temp spreads through the upcoming weekend, and even
bigger spreads early next week, suggesting a lot of forecast temp
volatility/disagreement between various NBM model inputs.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 517 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022


A broken stratus deck is moving south this evening into eastern SD
and affecting KABR and KATY. It could potentially move into KMBG,
as well. Cigs will not improve until Wednesday morning. Breezy
northwest winds will diminish through Wednesday afternoon.




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