Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
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317 FXUS63 KABR 300554 AAA AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1254 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a 30 to 60 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms across central South Dakota tonight. This activity will track eastward late tonight and Thursday. Northeastern South Dakota will see a 50 to 70 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms on Thursday, with lesser chances across central South Dakota. - The next decent chance (40 to 75 percent) for showers and thunderstorms will occur Sunday into Monday morning. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1240 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 The aviation discussion has been updated below for the 06Z TAFS. UPDATE Issued at 738 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Just some minor changes to update the timing of clouds and thunderstorms. See below for the 00Z Aviation discussion. && .SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 314 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 An upper level ridge currently over the region will get pushed east tonight ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. The energy with this wave will skirt the region tonight, with just some weaker energy later in the day Thursday and Thursday night. At the surface, the region is currently between high pressure to the east and an elongated low pressure system to the west, with a fairly tight pressure gradient creating windy conditions. The strong winds will diminish this evening. The frontal boundary associated with the low to the west will reach the very western edge of the CWA by midnight or so, then to along the Missouri River by Thursday morning. Will see a 40 to 50 knot low level jet develop in that same general area overnight, however instability and shear will be fairly weak. Expect to see some thunderstorm activity along the front, but will only see chances for strong storms this evening west of the Missouri River before the loss of daytime heating. The boundary will slowly track eastward Thursday, before exiting the CWA Thursday evening. Will see scattered shower and thunderstorm activity continue along it, mainly across the eastern half of the CWA, but chances for severe weather are minimal. If any precipitation lingers into Thursday night, it will be just over the far southeastern part of the CWA. Low temperatures tonight will be in the mid to upper 50s. High temperatures on Thursday will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Lows Thursday night will be in the mid 40s to lower 50s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 314 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 The long term begins on Friday with an upper level trough over the region with a high pressure at the surface. A weak shortwave embedded within the trough axis may cause showers and thunderstorms over western SD on Friday, with a few storms possibly reaching the Missouri River valley. Otherwise, dry should prevail until Sunday afternoon/evening. This is when an area of low pressure and upper level trough will impact the region. Warm air advection showers and thunderstorms may be possible (20-40%) early Sunday morning with clearing skies possible Sunday afternoon. If skies are able to clear, the environment may become conducive for severe weather late Sunday afternoon and evening, mainly over eastern South Dakota and western Minnesota. The storm system should push east of the CWA by Monday morning, with a period of dry conditions possible. A stronger storm system may progress across the region on Tuesday, bringing another round of storms. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1240 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG There will be a mix of VFR to MVFR conditions through at least the first half of this TAF valid period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms across central SD early this morning will mainly affect the KPIR and KMBG terminals through at least the next 6-9 hours or so. This activity will shift east into northeast SD closer to daybreak and affect KABR and KATY terminals during the mid morning through mid to late afternoon hours. Occasional MVFR cigs will be possible at KMBG during the overnight hours this morning. It appears more likely that MVFR cigs will be possible at KABR and KATY by mid morning through late afternoon. Southeasterly winds this morning will switch to the west-northwest as a cold front slowly shifts west to east across the TAF sites today. There will be some LLWS possible at any terminal, especially in the east overnight as a low level jet sets up. VFR conditions will return to all terminals by the end of this forecast period. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Connelly SHORT TERM...Parkin LONG TERM...SD AVIATION...Vipond