026
FXAK69 PAFG 142108
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
108 PM AKDT Sat Sep 14 2024


.SYNOPSIS...
A strong low pressure system will move north and east along the
West Coast this weekend bringing strong winds, high surf, and
heavy rainfall. As the low tracks towards the Interior, rain will
spread eastward on Sunday. Strong winds develop in the Eastern
Alaska Range this afternoon and persist into Sunday morning.
Another low will track into Bristol Bay on Tuesday.

.DISCUSSION...
Upper Levels and Analysis...
Aloft, at 500 mb, Aloft, A 526 dam low will deepen over the
Western Bering and push a front across the west coast on
Saturday. The low continues northeast towards the West Coast
through Saturday then inland on Sunday. South-Southwest flow will
develop over the Alaska Range on Saturday. Shortwaves will begin
to move east over the Interior Sunday and Monday as the upper
level low progresses inland bringing more rain chances to the
Interior. At the surface, a 982 mb low between St Lawrence Island
and Nunivak Island will wobble around the Bering Strait Sat night
then move across the Y-K Delta Coasst on Sunday. Surface low
will be near Galena by Monday morning before weakening.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Rain and Snow shower activity will be confined to the Brooks
Range today. Rain and Snow chances increase late Saturday night
across the Brooks Range, spreading north to the Coast Sunday as
the Bering low moves north along the West Coast, pushing a front
north and east. Mostly snow in the Passes with possible
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches but not much accumulation on the
Dalton Highway. Along the coast, east winds of 10 to 20 mph along
the coast will prevail with east winds of 15 to 20 mph along
Central and Eastern Beaufort Sea coast through Sunday. Winds
diminish late Sunday into Monday as the front pushes north of the
coast.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A low pressure system will move to St Lawrence Island and the Y-K
Delta this morning, tracking north and east across the West Coast
and Western Interior into Monday. Gusty southeast winds of 20 to
35 mph will develop with the passage of the front and the
associated low, with the strongest winds occurring over the Y-K
Delta and Eastern Norton Sound. On the backside of the low, winds
shift to the west southwest. In addition to the wind, elevated
water levels and high surf are expected to develop south of the
Seward Peninsula, and high Surf Advisories are in effect. The
highest water is expected early Sunday morning along the Y-K Delta
and during the day on Sunday in the Norton Sound Region. Rainfall
totals of half an inch to an inch and a half are expected through
Monday, with highest amounts south and west of a line from Kaltag
to Nikolai. High temperatures in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Strong southerly winds develop in the Alaska Range this afternoon,
as the low in the Bering approaches the West Coast. Gusts up to
60 mph are expected in the passes of the Eastern Alaska Range.
A Wind advisory is in effect for the Eastern Alaska Range through
Noon on Sunday. There could be areas of fog in valley locations
again Sunday morning. Rain begins to spread over the Interior by
Sunday morning and continue into the afternoon. Rainfall
accumulations around a quarter of an inch expected in the
Fairbanks area Sunday, between a quarter and a half an inch from
Bettles to Tanana and in the Alaska Range, and less than a quarter
of an inch elsewhere. Additional rainfall Monday will drop an
additional tenth to a quarter of an inch west and south of a line
from Bettles to Delta Junction. High temperatures top out in the
50s and lows drop into the mid 30s to lower 40s.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...Another low pressure system moving
across the Bering will approach the southwest coast on Tuesday. A
front associated with this low pressure system will bring heavy
rain to the southwest Interior midweek. Otherwise, overall
troughing will maintain unsettled conditions, cooler temps over
the north slope and Brooks Range and a chance of precip.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Another strong low
pressure system will move to near St. Matthew Island on Tuesday.
At this time, models indicate that the low will track southeast
from there into Bristol Bay. This track would not impact areas
from the Yukon Delta north with any type of elevated water, but we
will need to watch closely for changes in the forecasted track.

.HYDROLOGY...
Rivers across the Interior will rise over the next several days
as rainfall moves into the river basins. Heavy rain expected over
the west coast of 0.50 to 1 inch or more in some locations, that
will likely raise small rivers and streams.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ849.
     High Surf Advisory for AKZ822.
     High Surf Advisory for AKZ824.
     High Surf Advisory for AKZ825.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801-850.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802>810-816-817-851-852-854>856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ815.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ853.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ860.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ861.
&&

$$

JK