706
FXAK69 PAFG 181446
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
646 AM AKDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Conditions across the Interior will be a few degrees cooler than
yesterday. Wed will be slightly drier but with similar
temperatures to today. There will be slight warming and drying on
Thu, with very warm conditions continuing into the weekend.

Expect today to be a banner day for thunderstorms with more
lightning strikes over Northern AK than what occurred Mon, but with
the lightning further NE than Mon.

Expect isolated thunderstorms across most of the Interior and
inland North Slope today, with scattered thunderstorms by late
morning over the Interior north of the Tanana River and north of the
Yukon River from Tanana to Galena, with those scattered
thunderstorms continuing into late evening. Expect the scattered
thunderstorms to be strong and have frequent lightning, brief
heavy rain, winds gusting to 30 mph and 1/2 inch hail. Wed will
have isolated thunderstorms over much of the Interior through late
Wed night, with widely scattered PM thunderstorms east of Tanana
and Bettles Wed PM. There could be frequent lightning, gusty winds
and small hail with the widely scattered thunderstorms East of
Tanana and Bettles on Wed. Thu will see isolated thunderstorms
over all of the Interior through the day. Widely scattered or
scattered thunderstorms are possible along the AK Range and SE
Interior Thu PM as the next upper level low pressure trough
approaches from the south, but some uncertainty on this Thu.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
At 00Z, models all initialize 10-20 meters too high on 500 mb
heights over Northern AK. This means that the deep low over the
Chukchi Sea is not quite as deep as models initialize and expect
that models deepen it a bit too much over the next day or so. Also
expect that the ridge over Eastern AK will remain a but stronger
than models indicate. Models show similar solutions aloft through
4pm Wed, then the ECMWF is faster than the other models bringing
a short wave north out of the Gulf of AK Thu and over the Southern
Interior Thu night and Fri. At this time favor the slower
solutions shown by the GFS/NAM and Canadian for Thu night and
Fri. Bottom line is that we will use a blend of models solutions
for features aloft through Wed, then a blend of the GFS/NAM/and
Canadian models for features aloft for Wed night into Fri. Will
alter these model blends to have a slightly stronger ridge over
Northeast AK today, tonight and Wed which will mean slightly
warmer temperatures today and Wed than models would indicate, and
possibly a slightly stronger capping inversion than models
indicate.

850 mb temperatures cool 4C over the West Coast today, and 2-4C
over the Western and Central Interior today while the North Slope
and Eastern Interior remain about the same as Mon. We will see the
Western Coast and Western Interior cool 1-2C more, while the
North SLope and Eastern Interior see little change from Tue. Thu
all areas warm 1-2C from Wed, with those temps warming slowly
through Sat. Expect surface temps to follow the same trends except
along the coasts where sea or ice breezes could alter temps
differently.

With precipitation, models show similar solutions through Thu.
Will use a blend of the GFS and NAM for pops. Other than the
rain/snow over NW AK and the Seward Pen today and tonight, precip
will all be convective. Given that thunderstorms are still
occurring at 3am occuring from Tanana and Ruby north to Umiat,
expect today to be a banner day for thunderstorms with more
lightning strikes over Northern AK than what occurred Mon but
further NE than Mon. Expect isolated thunderstorms across most of
the Interior and inland North Slope today, with scattered
thunderstorms developing by late morning over the Interior north
of the Tanana River and the Yukon River from Tanana to Galena and
with those scattered thunderstorms continuing into late evening.
Expect the scattered thunderstorms to have frequent lightning,
brief heavy rain, winds gusting to 30 mph and 1/2 inch hail. Wed
will have isolated thunderstorms over much of the Interior through
late Wed night, with widely scattered PM thunderstorms east of
Tanana and Bettles. There could again be frequent lightning, gusty
winds and small hail with the widely scattered thunderstorms. Thu
will see isolated thunderstorms over all of the Interior through
the day. Widely scattered or scattered thunderstorms are possible
along the AK Range and SE Interior Thu PM as the next short wave
approaches from the south but some uncertainty on this Thu.

At the surface at 06Z, models verified well. Models show similar
solutions at the surface through Thu. Will lean on the high res
and NAM for details, but use MOS to highlights sea/ice breezes
along the coasts. Winds over the Interior look to remain less than
15 mph through Thu and likely into Fri, other than through Alaska
and Brooks Range Passes where 15 gusting to 30 mph are possible
and thunderstorm gusts. Along the Coasts, winds look to remain 20
mph or less through Thu, except for Northeast winds 20 to 30 mph
near Wainwright and Point Lay late tonight and early Wed. Sea and
ice breezes will occur along much of North Slope today through
Thu, and along the West Coast Wed and Thu, and expect stratus and
fog to push onshore with those winds.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Conditions across the Interior will be a few degrees cooler with
3-5% higher RH than yesterday. Wed will be slightly drier but with
similar temperatures to today. There will be slight warming and
drying on Thu, with very warm conditions continuing into the
weekend. Expect today to be a banner day for thunderstorms with
more lightning strikes over Northern AK than what occurred Mon,
with the lightning further NE than Mon.

Expect isolated thunderstorms across most of the Interior and
inland North Slope today, with scattered thunderstorms by late
morning over the Interior north of the Tanana River and north of the
Yukon River from Tanana to Galena, with those scattered
thunderstorms continuing into late evening. Expect the scattered
thunderstorms to have frequent lightning, brief heavy rain, winds
gusting to 30 mph and 1/2 inch hail. Wed will have isolated
thunderstorms over much of the Interior through late Wed night,
with widely scattered PM thunderstorms east of Tanana and Bettles
Wed PM. There could be frequent lightning, gusty winds and small
hail with the widely scattered thunderstorms East of Tanana and
Bettles. Thu will see isolated thunderstorms over all of the
Interior through the day. Widely scattered or scattered
thunderstorms are possible along the AK Range and SE Interior Thu
PM as the next upper level low pressure trough approaches from
the south, but some uncertainty on this Thu.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
River levels on the North Slope continue to fall. No widespread
flooding is expected, but will need to keep an eye on slow moving
thunderstorms across the Northern and Eastern Interior today where
occur over steep terrain. The same goes for the SE Interior and
AK Range on Thu PM when increasing numbers of thunderstorms could
fire up there.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Red Flag Warning for AKZ931>933.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ854.
&&

$$

JB