Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
596 FXAK69 PAFG 162019 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 1219 PM AKDT Mon Sep 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... The Interior will stay unsettled through much of the week with clouds and rain showers. Cooling trend will continue for much of the Interior with temps dropping to the 40s by Thursday. A strong low pressure system will track into Bristol Bay on Tuesday bringing rain and winds to Southwest Alaska. .DISCUSSION... Upper Levels and Analysis... Aloft, at 500 mb, Aloft, A 531 upper level low over the western Interior will track inland on Monday and over the E Interior on Tuesday as a 537 Dam low. This will keep most of the Interior unsettled through Tuesday. Another strong upper low will move over Bristol Bay on Tuesday at around 522 dam then weaken as it moves inland on Wednesday. Ridging will build over the Bering on Thursday and Friday. Models in good agreement in the short- term, we will continue with a blend of the GFS/ECMWF. North Slope and Brooks Range... Snow shower activity will be confined to the Eastern Brooks Range today. Mostly snow in the Passes with possible accumulations of 2 to 4 inches east of the Dalton Highway, but not much accumulation on the Dalton Highway. The north slope will see a cooling trend by late in the week with chances of snow. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s through Tuesday. West Coast and Western Interior... Elevated water levels continue to drop as the low has moved inland and winds have diminished some. Another strong low will track across SW Alaska on Tuesday and Wednesday bringing more rain and winds to the southern west coast. Northerly winds will also ramp up over the Bering Strait and Saint Lawrence Island. Not expecting any elevated water issues with this storm as flow is mainly offshore. Highs is the upper 40s to near 50 in the short term. Cooler by the coast. Central and Eastern Interior... Rain showers moving across the Interior today as a shortwave aloft tracks across the area. There could be areas of fog in valley locations again Tuesday morning. Upper level low over the west coast will continue to track across the Western Interior on Monday bringing more rain to the region. Rain spreads across the Central Interior Monday afternoon into Tuesday. There is a slight chance of an isolated thunderstorm near Eagle/ALCAN Border Monday afternoon. More rain showers possible Wednesday into Thursday as another upper level feature approaches. High temperatures top out in the low 50s and lows drop into the mid 30s to lower 40s through Wed. Highs turning cooler as colder air filters in from the north late in the week. Extended Forecast Days 4-7...Overall troughing will maintain unsettled conditions over the northern Interior, cooler temps over the north slope and Brooks Range and a chance of precip. Ridging may build over the west coast by late week. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Another strong low will track across SW Alaska on Tuesday and Wednesday bringing more rain and winds to the southern west coast. Northerly winds will also ramp up over the Bering Strait and Saint Lawrence Island. Not expecting any elevated water issues with this storm as flow is mainly offshore. .HYDROLOGY... 0.5 to 1.0 inches of rainfall fell over the Lower Yukon watershed and down to the Delta. More rainfall is expected for Tuesday and Wednesday with another 0.5 to 0.75 inches over the same area. River rises are likely, but will not be significant. Elsewhere, no concerns as rivers are running low due to fairly low snow levels. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AK...None. PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802-816. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ803-804-852. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817-853-854. Gale Warning for PKZ850. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851. && $$ JK