911
FXAK69 PAFG 222215
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
215 PM AKDT Sun Sep 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
There is a very weak arctic shortwave over the area with otherwise
high pressure conditions at the surface. This has allowed for
some cooler temperatures and only a few light shower near the Brooks
Range. It will continue to be mostly dry over most of the
Mainland with persistent northeasterly winds across much of the
regions. A stronger occluded low pressure system is currently
moving into the Gulf and will continue to do so through the mid
part of this week, which will help to increase the chance of
shower activity, especially over the eastern Tanana region. This
will also increase gap flow winds for the passes of the Alaska
Range, but these winds should remain below criteria. More more
impressive system moving into the Gulf towards next weekend could
result in more impactful conditions, depending on the track of the
low, otherwise overall weak arctic waves passing to the north
will keep the chance of showers in place throughout the rest of
the week for portions of the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
Weak arctic troughing is currently in place over the Mainland, and
will remain this way throughout the week. Deterministic models
have been resolving the major shortwave and associated low
pressure system better, which is moving into the Gulf. The
occluded low center is undergoing some cyclogenesis just south of
the Alaska Peninsula. This is around 968-970 dam, and will
continue to fill as it progresses eastward into the Gulf. The
general consensus of the models has the low moving into the
northern Gulf and weakening as it does, hugging the coastline and
moving up near the Prince William Sound by Tuesday morning, with a
slight retrograding back towards the northwest. The gradient from
this still looks to be too weak enough to support gap flow winds
through the passes (Windy and Isabel) of being anything of
concern. Depending on the development and track of another major
shortwave trough nearing the Gulf the following weekend and it
there is a more northerly track, there could be more in the way of
impacts to the region (especially for strong winds through the
Bering Strait), although at this time there still appears to be
too much in the way of inconsistencies between the models. A weak
arctic trough will still be present over the North Slope through
the rest of the week and keep things generally unsettled.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Mostly cloudy to overcast skies with mostly dry conditions, with
only a few lingering showers possible (and snow above 1000-2000
ft), will continue through tomorrow. The low pressure to the south
will bring in some wrap around moisture over the eastern Interior
around the mid part of next week and will help to enhance shower
activity from Tuesday through Thursday. It will also increase gap
flow winds for the passes, although at this time, it appears that
these winds will remain below criteria.

West Coast and Western Interior...
It will be generally dry with persistent northeasterly wind flow
over most of the region, and colder air advection in place. There
could be a few isolated snow showers, with an increase of snow
shower activity towards the end of next week as another arctic
wave moves overhead and there is possible influence of the larger
system moving in from Siberia and into the Bering Sea.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
A few snow showers are possible in and around the vicinity of the
Brooks Range, otherwise only cloudy skies are expected in the
shorter term. Overall on and off shower activity will continue to
be possible through the early part of the week, with a slight
uptick going into the later part of the week since there will be
another weak arctic wave looks to be moving overhead by then.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Depending on the track and intensity of a major shortwave trough
entering the Gulf towards next weekend, there could be more
significant impacts to the region, especially for the Bering
Strait with stronger winds and impacts to sea wave heights.
Otherwise, general arctic troughing will remain in place with more
weak waves propagating over the region by later in the week. This
will keep the chance of rain/snow showers in place through the
rest of the week, especially for the central and eastern portions
of the Mainland.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801>804-811-816-817-850>852-854.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-807-810-853-857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ853.
&&

$$