856
FXAK69 PAFG 211215
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
415 AM AKDT Sat Sep 21 2024


.SYNOPSIS...A weak shortwave will continue to  propagate towards
the east with only some residual showers associated with it over
the eastern half of the state. An Arctic low over the Brooks Range
will bring snow likely to the Eastern half of the Brooks Range
through Saturday and allow for some colder air advection from
the North Slope to progress southward and could bring about some
snow to around 1000 ft within the Interior. Meanwhile, an
occluded low pressure system moving into the Gulf early next week,
and the arctic trough remaining in place, will keep the chance of
rain/snow showers going through the mid part of next week.

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
Models in fair agreement with a deepening upper low over the
Brooks Range and a 525 dam low over the Central Aleutians. This
upper low will track eastward into the Gulf of Alaska by
Monday and the Upper low over the Brooks Range will proprogate
to the south through Sunday and deepen to 527 dam near the
Seward Peninsula on Monday. HIgh pressure over the west coast
will retrograde to the west over Russia by Sunday. Troughing
will persist over the State through early next week. We will
continue to use a blend for the PoPs over the E Interior
and Brooks Range on Saturday.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Light showers will begin to increase by tomorrow morning and
temperatures will continue to drop as colder air is advected from
the north. It is possible that there could be some snow making it
down to the valley floor for some locations, although the snow
level looks to drop down to around to around 500-1000 for most
locations. There could be some snowflakes mixing in for the
Fairbanks area, yet will likely have no accumulating snow,
perhaps only on grassy surfaces. The best chance of this looks to
be Saturday night though Sunday morning. Spotty rain/snow showers
will continue to be possible through the mid part of next week.
The Pressure gradient tightens on Sunday, and 925 mb winds pick up
from the Northeast over much of the N Interior. There could be
gusts of 20 to 30 mph over higher terrain on Sunday. Winds near
Delta Junction pick up as well out of the Southeast, but remain
below advisory level. Winds could continue into Monday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
High pressure keeping things quiet for the most part over the
weekend. Northeastly winds will be gusty through the Bering
Strait and over the coast around 15 to 30 mph. With the colder air
advection, temperatures will steadily continue to drop off and be
on an overall downtrend through the mid part of next week. Upper
low dropping down over the area on Monday will bring some showers
to the W Interior and inland areas on Monday and Tuesday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
The Arctic low will be the focus for snow likely in the E Brooks
Range through Saturday. Snow expected along the Dalton Highway and
to areas East of the Highway. 6 to 12 inches expected. A Winter
Storm Warning is still in effect through early Sunday. Snow will
taper off to light showers or Flurries on Sunday. The weak
troughing will keep the possibility of snow showers going into the
mid part of next week. The north slope will continue to see areas
of stratus and Fog through the weekend. A weak low will move into
the Beaufort Sea on Monday and could enhance more showers for the
Eastern north slope and Brooks Range.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Upper low progged to remain over the west coast through much of
the week, while the Interior remains cloudy and cool with the
threat of Showers. Further out towards the end of the run, the
GFS is showing a strong system that moves into the Gulf of
Alaska for next weekend, but there is still alot of uncertainty
between models at this point in time. Will continue to monitor.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

.HYDROLOGY...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Warning for AKZ809.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-817-854.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850-851.
&&

$$