596
FXAK69 PAFG 162019
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1219 PM AKDT Mon Sep 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The Interior will stay unsettled through much of the week with
clouds and rain showers. Cooling trend will continue for much of
the Interior with temps dropping to the 40s by Thursday. A
strong low pressure system will track into Bristol Bay on
Tuesday bringing rain and winds to Southwest Alaska.

.DISCUSSION...
Upper Levels and Analysis...
Aloft, at 500 mb, Aloft, A 531 upper level low over the western
Interior will track inland on Monday and over the E Interior on
Tuesday as a 537 Dam low. This will keep most of the Interior
unsettled through Tuesday. Another strong upper low will move
over Bristol Bay on Tuesday at around 522 dam then weaken
as it moves inland on Wednesday. Ridging will build over
the Bering on Thursday and Friday. Models in good agreement in
the short- term, we will continue with a blend of the GFS/ECMWF.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Snow shower activity will be confined to the Eastern Brooks Range
today. Mostly snow in the Passes with possible accumulations of 2
to 4 inches east of the Dalton Highway, but not much accumulation
on the Dalton Highway. The north slope will see a cooling trend
by late in the week with chances of snow. Highs in the upper 30s
to low 40s through Tuesday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Elevated water levels continue to drop as the low has moved inland
and winds have diminished some. Another strong low will track
across SW Alaska on Tuesday and Wednesday bringing more rain and
winds to the southern west coast. Northerly winds will also ramp
up over the Bering Strait and Saint Lawrence Island. Not expecting
any elevated water issues with this storm as flow is mainly
offshore. Highs is the upper 40s to near 50 in the short term.
Cooler by the coast.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Rain showers moving across the Interior today as a shortwave
aloft tracks across the area. There could be areas of fog in
valley locations again Tuesday morning. Upper level low over the
west coast will continue to track across the Western Interior on
Monday bringing more rain to the region. Rain spreads across the
Central Interior Monday afternoon into Tuesday. There is a slight
chance of an isolated thunderstorm near Eagle/ALCAN Border Monday
afternoon. More rain showers possible Wednesday into Thursday as
another upper level feature approaches. High temperatures top out
in the low 50s and lows drop into the mid 30s to lower 40s
through Wed. Highs turning cooler as colder air filters in from
the north late in the week.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...Overall troughing will maintain
unsettled conditions over the northern Interior, cooler temps over
the north slope and Brooks Range and a chance of precip. Ridging
may build over the west coast by late week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Another strong low will
track across SW Alaska on Tuesday and Wednesday bringing more
rain and winds to the southern west coast. Northerly winds will
also ramp up over the Bering Strait and Saint Lawrence Island. Not
expecting any elevated water issues with this storm as flow is
mainly offshore.

.HYDROLOGY...
0.5 to 1.0 inches of rainfall fell over the Lower Yukon watershed
and down to the Delta. More rainfall is expected for Tuesday and
Wednesday with another 0.5 to 0.75 inches over the same area.
River rises are likely, but will not be significant. Elsewhere, no
concerns as rivers are running low due to fairly low snow levels.



&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802-816.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ803-804-852.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817-853-854.
     Gale Warning for PKZ850.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
&&

$$

JK