Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
911 FXAK69 PAFG 222215 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 215 PM AKDT Sun Sep 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS... There is a very weak arctic shortwave over the area with otherwise high pressure conditions at the surface. This has allowed for some cooler temperatures and only a few light shower near the Brooks Range. It will continue to be mostly dry over most of the Mainland with persistent northeasterly winds across much of the regions. A stronger occluded low pressure system is currently moving into the Gulf and will continue to do so through the mid part of this week, which will help to increase the chance of shower activity, especially over the eastern Tanana region. This will also increase gap flow winds for the passes of the Alaska Range, but these winds should remain below criteria. More more impressive system moving into the Gulf towards next weekend could result in more impactful conditions, depending on the track of the low, otherwise overall weak arctic waves passing to the north will keep the chance of showers in place throughout the rest of the week for portions of the region. && .DISCUSSION... Upper Levels and Analysis... Weak arctic troughing is currently in place over the Mainland, and will remain this way throughout the week. Deterministic models have been resolving the major shortwave and associated low pressure system better, which is moving into the Gulf. The occluded low center is undergoing some cyclogenesis just south of the Alaska Peninsula. This is around 968-970 dam, and will continue to fill as it progresses eastward into the Gulf. The general consensus of the models has the low moving into the northern Gulf and weakening as it does, hugging the coastline and moving up near the Prince William Sound by Tuesday morning, with a slight retrograding back towards the northwest. The gradient from this still looks to be too weak enough to support gap flow winds through the passes (Windy and Isabel) of being anything of concern. Depending on the development and track of another major shortwave trough nearing the Gulf the following weekend and it there is a more northerly track, there could be more in the way of impacts to the region (especially for strong winds through the Bering Strait), although at this time there still appears to be too much in the way of inconsistencies between the models. A weak arctic trough will still be present over the North Slope through the rest of the week and keep things generally unsettled. Central and Eastern Interior... Mostly cloudy to overcast skies with mostly dry conditions, with only a few lingering showers possible (and snow above 1000-2000 ft), will continue through tomorrow. The low pressure to the south will bring in some wrap around moisture over the eastern Interior around the mid part of next week and will help to enhance shower activity from Tuesday through Thursday. It will also increase gap flow winds for the passes, although at this time, it appears that these winds will remain below criteria. West Coast and Western Interior... It will be generally dry with persistent northeasterly wind flow over most of the region, and colder air advection in place. There could be a few isolated snow showers, with an increase of snow shower activity towards the end of next week as another arctic wave moves overhead and there is possible influence of the larger system moving in from Siberia and into the Bering Sea. North Slope and Brooks Range... A few snow showers are possible in and around the vicinity of the Brooks Range, otherwise only cloudy skies are expected in the shorter term. Overall on and off shower activity will continue to be possible through the early part of the week, with a slight uptick going into the later part of the week since there will be another weak arctic wave looks to be moving overhead by then. Extended Forecast Days 4-7... Depending on the track and intensity of a major shortwave trough entering the Gulf towards next weekend, there could be more significant impacts to the region, especially for the Bering Strait with stronger winds and impacts to sea wave heights. Otherwise, general arctic troughing will remain in place with more weak waves propagating over the region by later in the week. This will keep the chance of rain/snow showers in place through the rest of the week, especially for the central and eastern portions of the Mainland. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .HYDROLOGY... None. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AK...None. PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801>804-811-816-817-850>852-854. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-807-810-853-857. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-856. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ853. && $$