282
FXAK69 PAFG 072259
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
259 PM AKDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
We have just seen a few isolated showers pop up over the
Interior, so far, today. Showers are expected to continue
decreasing in coverage and intensity. The weekend will be warm,
dry, and clear with breezy conditions occurring on Saturday for
the Interior and the eastern Alaska range. Some lower elevation
areas in the aforementioned region are expected to reach into the
80s and have relative humidity values reach into the teens for the
weekend, increasing wildfire danger.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper-Level Analysis...Southerly flow over the Interior will shift
to more easterly on Saturday. High pressure will build-in over the
northern Interior on Saturday, and easterly flow will continue
over the southern Interior through Sunday. Waves moving in from
the east will bring more moisture over the Interior early next
week bringing back showers and isolated thunderstorms as the ridge
over the Interior begins to break down/weaken.

Central and Eastern Interior...
A ridge of high pressure builds into the Interior on Saturday.
Red Flag Warnings are in effect for the Interior over the weekend
south of Wiseman due to much warmer, drier, and windier
conditions. The pressure gradient will tighten over much of the
Interior ramping up the winds Saturday afternoon especially over
higher terrain. East winds around 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35
mph possible. East winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph over
valley locations, including Fairbanks. The Interior will warm up
to the upper 70s to low 80s and relative humidity values will
lower to between 15 and 20 percent in some spots over the weekend.
Easterly Easterly flow will return next week with cooler
conditions and the return of showers and isolated thunderstorms.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A few showers may still occur between the extreme western
Interior and near the West Coast into tonight. A weak shortwave
will move over the Yukon Delta Coast on Saturday and Sunday
bringing more showers but most of the west coast will remain dry
over the weekend. Temperatures will warm into the middle to upper
70s for inland lower elevation areas over the weekend. Therefore,
a Red Flag Warning is in effect for lower elevations in the
Western Interior, specifically for areas NE of Anvik and N of
McGrath for the weekend for warm temperatures and low relative
humidity values dipping down to around 25%.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Foggy conditions return over the North Slope tonight as onshore
flow from over the sea ice returns, which will return temperatures
to near their dewpoints. High temperatures will range from the
30s and 40s along the coast and reaching into the 60s in the
Brooks Range. Scattered showers will continue over the eastern
Brooks Range with a diminishing trend into tonight. Then, things
dry out completely on Saturday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended Outlook...
Waves will begin moving in from the east, again, starting on
Monday for the Interior, which will work to cool things off a bit
and bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms back to
that region. South of the Brooks Range and all the way to the west
coast will see chances for showers, as well, just lower in
intensity and coverage when compared to the Interior.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Showers continue to diminish over the Interior through this
evening. Today was much less active over that region than the last
few days due to the continued decrease in atmospheric
instability. The strongest showers and thunderstorms have
primarily been concentrated over the northeastern corner of the
state over the Brooks Range, today. As high pressure continues to
build-in, conditions will warm and dry out through the entirety of
the weekend, primarily and most notably, for the Interior. Red
flag warnings are in effect for the Interior over the weekend due
to these conditions. In addition, it will be breezy on Saturday
over the warned area. Easterly winds are anticipated to be around
15 to 25 mph over valley locations with gusts to 35 mph over
higher terrain. Winds will be diminishing on Sunday. The Interior
will warm up to the upper 70s to low 80s in some locations over
the weekend. Minimum relative humidity values look to be around 15
to 25 percent on Saturday and 20 to 30 percent on Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Recently received snowfall present in the Brooks Range / North
Slope area from the last couple weeks along with warming
temperatures will promote continued snowmelt, giving the potential
for higher water for the Colville, Sag, and Kuparuk rivers and
their tributaries. There are some ice jams present on the
Colville, which should enhance any flooding threat. Water levels
are expected to crest into the weekend. The water level in Fort
Yukon will continue to slowly recede. Satellites and ground
observations continue to indicate a good bit of snow in the
Porcupine Mountains. As temperatures continue warming over the
next few days, snowmelt may lead to continued high water for
streams in that area.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Red Flag Warning for AKZ912-919-928>947-949-952.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ803-805-816-817-850>853.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-854-856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807.
&&

$$