135
FXAK69 PAFG 291923 CCA
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1123 AM AKDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm weather will continue over much of the Interior through the
weekend and into early next week. Areas of dense smoke from fires
burning is reducing visibilities over the Middle Tanana Valley.
Smoke will be in and out through the weekend. Dense smoke
advisories expected to continue. Isolated storms will persist
into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Analysis and Model Discussion...

A strong vertically stacked low will remain in the central Bering
Sea then drift across the Aleutians on Sunday as a 540 dam
Low. Ridging will persist over the Interior this weekend.
A trough will push across the eastern North slope late Sunday
into Monday. Another low over Russia will push a front across
Northwest Alaska on Tuesday. Ridging over the Interior will
slowly break down Monday and Tuesday. Models in good agreement
through the short term. The HRRR smoke model showing smoke
persisting over the Interior through the weekend.

Interior...Warm weather will continue over much of the Interior
through the weekend. Highs in the mid 80s and a few upper 80s over
the Yukon Flats. Areas of dense smoke from fires burning is
reducing visibilities over the Middle Tanana Valley. Smoke will be
in and out through the weekend. Air across Fairbanks and North
Pole is very unhealthy this morning. Dense smoke advisories have
been extended into Sunday. Smoke may thin and visibility may
improve in the afternoon around Fairbanks but become dense again
early morning on Sunday. High pressure builds back in for the
weekend with rising temps back into the 80s, and much lower
thunderstorm activity, with that ridge aloft suppressing
thunderstorm potential. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms
return over the southern Interior on Sunday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
High pressure in control over the majority of the west coast.
Western Interior will remain warm over the weekend with highs in
the upper 70s to low 80s. Showers continue to rotate around the
Yukon Delta from the low in the southern Bering through the
weekend. Widely scattered thunderstorms are possible from Grayling
to Mcgrath on Sunday. Some of these storms will be fairly strong
and may produce small hail and gusty winds with copious lightning.
Monday is another warm day, with increasing southwesterly winds
as a low approaches the NW Arctic. Possible change in the pattern
by Tuesday with temps cooling and a front bringing rain showers to
the west coast. Temps could drop to the 60s Tuesday into
Wednesday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
A little less thunderstorm activity today but still a chance for
isolated thunderstorms over the eastern Brooks Range today from Anatuvak
Pass to the AlCan border. On Sunday, isolated storms return over
the southern Interior. A front will begin to impact northwest
Alaska and the western Brooks Range with strong west-southwesterly
winds.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Long range models are coming more inline with a fairly large
pattern shift beginning Tuesday, as a front from E Siberia moves
inland across the NW Arctic and shifts east along the Brooks
Range and eventually into the Interior through the remainder of
the week. This will bring increasing west-southwest winds across
the Mainland each day, with increasing chances for rainfall and
cooler temps.


Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warm and relatively dry over the Interior through the weekend and
into early Next week. Smoke and unhealthy air continues over
the Middle Tanana Valley down to Delta Junction. Dense Smoke
Advisories still in effect through Sunday. On Saturday, the
thunderstorm threat moves Anatuvak Pass to the AlCan border. For
now, widely scattered wet thunderstorms are expected. On Sunday,
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms return over the
southern Interior and western Interior from Grayling to McGrath.

Major pattern shift begins Tue and Wed as the upper ridge breaks
down and a strong front moves into the NW Arctic and shifts east
through the week, bringing potential wetting rains and much cooler
temps, although strong southwest winds may create some critical
fire weather conditions prior to that. Will continue to monitor.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Heavy rain showers and thunderstorms over the Brooks Range today
may feed into faster moving streams and cause rapid rises, which
will remain high into this weekend. Glacial fed rivers including
the Tanana are beginning to rise as warming temperatures lead to
increased high elevation snowmelt.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Dense Smoke Advisory for AKZ834-837-840-841-842-843-844-839.
PK...None.

&&

$$