803
FXAK69 PAFG 262308
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
308 PM AKDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

An active summer pattern brings continued fire weather concerns to
Interior Alaska, warm temperatures and even thunderstorms to the
North Slope Thursday and Friday, and a highly unusual Bering Sea
low south of the Bering Strait. Thursday will be a very warm day
as well in the Interior, with slight cooling on Friday. Dry
thunderstorms are likely today from Eagle to Tok and east to the
Alcan Border. A banner day for thunderstorms is expected Thursday
with scattered thunderstorms from the Western Brooks Range to
Fairbanks to the Alcan Border.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Analysis and Model Discussion...

Models initialized well when compared to observations at the
surface and aloft. We updated the smoke forecast and generally
follow the HRRR-smoke model for guidance, with a few minor
changes.

Central and Eastern Interior...Hot and dry conditions with
afternoon and evening thunderstorms continue with highs
reaching between the lower to upper 80s. Thursday will be
slightly cooler, but we expect an increase in thunderstorm
activity especially south and west of the Yukon Flats.

West Coast and Western Interior...Warm and mostly dry conditions
persist. Expect southeast winds 15 to 25 mph from Nome south late
this afternoon as a strong low pressure system resides in the Bering Sea.
The front will bring little in the way of precipitation with only
light rain expected along the Yukon Delta. Thursday looks to be a
very big thunderstorm day from east of Kotzebue to Huslia and
southeast. The aforementioned low pressure system in the Bering
Sea will bring elevated surf 1 to 2 feet above the normal high
tide line along the Yukon Delta coast as well as south facing
shorelines south of the Bering Strait including Nome. Water will
be elevated through Fri with multiple water level peaks as storm surge
values remain fairly constant and tides go in and out.

North Slope and Brooks Range...Warm temperatures will extend north
all the way to the Arctic Coast through Thursday as the
ridge moves north over the Arctic Coast. Isolated thunderstorms
are expected even up to the Arctic Coast into this evening.
Thunderstorm activity will increase in the Brooks Range and on the
Western North Slope on Thursday. Friday will bring scattered
thunderstorms west of Umiat. East winds 15 to 20 mph are expected
along the coast Thursday night and Friday morning.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Widely scattered dry thunderstorms are anticipated this afternoon
from Eagle to Tok and east to the Alcan Border as a shortwave
moves off the upper level high center from the east. Today is the
the hottest and driest day of the week with highs peaking out in the
mid to upper 80s across most of the Interior. Min RHs are between
20 & 25% east of Tanana and slightly higher to the west. Outside
of the widely scattered dry thunderstorms in the eastern Interior,
isolated thunderstorms are expected this afternoon across the rest
of the Interior, Brooks Range, and eastern Arctic Coast. Widely
scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon from Huslia
to Tanana to Poorman to Galena.

On Thursday, Red Flag Warnings for both hot/dry/windy conditions
and for lightning are in effect as the ridge shifts north to the
Arctic Coast as a strong low in the Bering Sea pushes further
north. This will tighten the gradient and cause east winds 10 to
20 mph across the northern Interior. It will still be plenty hot
and dry, so have gone ahead with a Red Flag Warning for
hot/dry/windy conditions across the northern Interior. Thursday
may also be the largest lightning day of the year so far as
scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along a boundary
between the Bering low and the Interior ridge extending from the
Western Brooks Range to Fairbanks to the Alcan Border. Red Flag
Warnings for lightning are in effect for the central and eastern
Interior. Isolated thunderstorms are expected even up to the
Arctic Coast.

On Friday, the same shortwave will impact the central Brooks
Range, bringing widely scattered thunderstorms from Atqasuk to
Anaktuvuk Pass to Livengood and east to Eagle. Scattered
thunderstorms are even expected on the western North Slope.
Temperatures will be 2 to 5 degrees cooler than Thursday across
the area and minimum RH 5-10% higher. A new Red Flag Warning has
been added for the southern slopes of the eastern Brooks Range for
Friday and extended through Friday for the Yukon Flats area for
lightning, very warm high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s and
low humidity values of between 20 and 25 percent.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Glacial fed rivers including the Tanana are beginning to rise as
warming temperatures lead to increased high elevation snowmelt.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Red Flag Warning for AKZ912-913-919-931>935-939-943-946.
     Dense Smoke Advisory for AKZ839-840-844-845.
     Red Flag Warning for AKZ944.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-802-816-850-851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817-853-854.
&&

$$